Gold Near Steady as Bulls Gain More Confidence

www.cfb.ae

Gold prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Friday, as some profit-taking pressure and chart consolidation are seen following recent gains. However, do not look for the gold sellers to be out in force Friday, as the market place is heading into an uncertain weekend regarding the Cyprus financial crisis. April Comex gold last traded down $6.00 at $1,607.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $6.80 at $1,608.50.  May Comex silver last traded down $0.192 at $29.02 an ounce.


The Cyprus financial crisis continues to fester and the market place remains uneasy about it. Russia had indicated it could bail out Cyprus, but reports said talks between Russian and Cyprus officials have ended without any agreement. A second vote on a financial bailout plan by the Cyprus parliament is scheduled for Friday. This plan would involve bank restructuring and placing restrictions on financial transactions. The European Central Bank says it has funds ready for a Cyprus bailout, but insists there needs to be an EU-backed financial plan in place by Monday. There is now talk of Cyprus being booted out of the European Monetary Union. The market place will head into the weekend with keener uncertainty, which is a bullish underlying factor for the safe-haven gold market.

There was more weak European Union economic data released Friday, and it came from the strongest country in the EU. German business confidence showed a surprising drop in March after rising sharply in February. The Ifo business confidence index dropped to 106.7 in March from 107.4 in February. The Euro zone remains mired in economic recession, which along with the Cyprus financial crisis has pushed the EU problems back to the front burner of the market place.

The U.S. dollar index is trading weaker Friday morning, on some profit taking. The U.S. dollar bulls still to hold the overall technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer early Friday. The crude oil bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. These two key “outside markets” will continue to have a significant daily influence on gold and silver prices.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,611.50 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,613.75.

Technically, gold futures bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. But the bulls have more work to do in the near term to suggest the fledgling near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart can be sustained. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,575.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,616.50 and then at $1,619.70. First support is seen at $1,600.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,589.60.

May silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have also been trading sideways and choppy for four weeks as the bulls have stabilized the market. This price action could be “basing” at lower price levels that can put in market bottoms and eventually kicks off price uptrends. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $28.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $29.17 and then at this week’s high of $29.325. Next support is seen at $28.85 and then at $28.53.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.aeHere are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated 
on the markets...   http://centuryfinancialbroker.wordpress.com/

Iran will destroy Israeli cities if attacked: Khamenei

Iran's clerical supreme leader said on Thursday the Islamic Republic would destroy the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa if it came under attack from the Jewish state.
"At times the officials of the Zionist regime (Israel) threaten to launch a military invasion but they themselves know that if they make the slightest mistake the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in an address to mark the Iranian new year.
Israel has threatened military action against Iran unless it abandons nuclear activities which the West suspects are intended to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran denies this, saying it wants nuclear energy only for civilian purposes.

 

In his televised speech, Khamenei said Iran's struggles over the past year against international sanctions imposed over its disputed nuclear program resembled a battle and that its enemies had confessed to trying to "cripple the Iranian nation".

"What happened last year, we need to learn a lesson," he said, alluding to what he described as Iran's significant scientific and military advances. "This vibrant nation will never be brought to its knees."
Khamenei also called for Iran's "natural right" to enrich uranium for nuclear energy to be recognized by the world. Western powers have refused, saying Iran has hidden nuclear work from U.N. inspectors and stonewalled their investigations.

Talks between Iran and six world powers - the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany - are to resume early next month in a further attempt to strike a deal on Iranian nuclear aspirations.But Khamenei was cool to a U.S. suggestion of direct talks between the two countries, which severed diplomatic relations after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"I am not optimistic about these talks. Why? Because our past experiences show that talks for the American officials do not mean for us to sit down and reach a logical solution ... What they mean by talks is that we sit down and talk until Iran accepts their viewpoint," he said.
"Iran only wants its enrichment right, which is its natural right, to be recognized by the world."

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.aeHere are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated 
on the markets...  http://centuryfinancialbroker.wordpress.com/

China May Limit Gold to 2% of Foreign Reserves,

www.cfb.ae

China is likely to limit its gold holdings to 2 percent of its total foreign exchange reserves, said Yi Gang, a deputy Chinese central bank governor.

The People’s Bank of China last made known changes to its gold reserves in 2009, announcing that it held 1,054 metric tons. The bank hasn’t made any revisions since then. That’s about 1.8 percent of its total reserves, according to data from the World Gold Council.

“If the Chinese government were to buy too much gold, gold prices would surge, a scenario that will hurt Chinese consumers,” Yi said today in a press briefing in Beijing. “We can only invest about 1-2 percent of the foreign exchange reserves into gold because the market is too small.”
The nation’s reserves, which have surged more than 700 percent since 2004, surpassed the value of all official bullion holdings in January 2004 and rose to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gold has fallen about 4.7 percent this year as the U.S. stocks extended a record rally amid speculation that the FederalReserve may rein in stimulus as the recovery gains traction, curbing demand for safe-haven assets.

China was expected to displace India as the biggest gold consumer last year, according to forecast in November from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Chinese investors sought to protect their wealth by buying gold, after government measures to curb real estate prices and as China’s stock market has fallen in the past decade even though nominal gross domestic product rose fourfold.

Foreign Reserves

About two-thirds of China’s foreign reserves are dollar- denominated and another quarter is in euros, according to Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale SA. China is now encouraging companies and residents to keep more foreign currency in a strategy known as “hiding foreign currencies among people,” meaning that the government’s foreign reserves may “gradually fall,” Yang said.

Gold capped a 12th annual advance in 2012 and rose to a record of $1,921.15 an ounce in 2011. Gold for immediate delivery were little changed today at $1,591.95 at 6:29 p.m. Beijing time.
“We will always keep gold in mind as an option in reserve assets and investments,” Yi said. “We are able to import 500-600 tons a year, or more, but we will also take into consideration a stable gold market.”

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets...  http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

News Source: www.reuters.com

Gold Sharply Higher on Bargain Hunting, Short Covering, and Some Fresh Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices are trading sharply higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. dealings Tuesday. Heavy short covering, bargain hunting and even some fresh safe-haven demand are featured. The near-term technical posture in gold has also improved a bit Tuesday.

April Comex gold last traded up $18.00 at $1,596.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $14.90 at $1,597.25.  May Comex silver last traded up $0.452 at $29.31 an ounce.

The stronger U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury prices Tuesday morning, along with weaker U.S. stock indexes, suggest investor risk appetite has pulled back a bit so far on the day. The solid jump in gold prices early Tuesday does hint that the “risk-off” day in the market place has attracted some fresh safe-haven investor demand for the yellow metal.

In overnight news, Spanish and Italian bond yields held steady following successful government debt auctions in both countries Tuesday. However, the Italian bond auction did see the government’s borrowing costs rise to a three-month high, reports said. The auctions came after the Fitch ratings agency last Friday downgraded Italy’s credit rating. Another Italian bond auction is slated for Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar hit a 3.5-year high against the Japanese yen overnight amid reports the Bank of Japan will continue on its aggressive monetary policy easing path. Asian stock markets were pressured again Tuesday following the recent spate of Chinese economic data that hints at slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer Tuesday morning and hovering near a seven-month high scored last Friday. The U.S. dollar bulls have solid technical strength to suggest the dollar index can continue to trend higher in the near term. That continues to be a bearish underlying factor for gold and silver. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady Tuesday. The crude oil bears still have the near-term technical advantage, and that’s also a negative for gold and silver prices.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Manpower quarterly U.S. employment survey, the NFIB small business optimism index, and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,582.50 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,579.00.

Technically, April gold futures prices on Tuesday have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range of the past two weeks. The bulls on Tuesday did gain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum even though the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $1,554.30. First resistance is seen at $1,600.00 and then at $1,610.00. First support is seen at $1,585.80 and then at the overnight low of $1,578.80.

May silver futures hit a fresh two-week high in early trading Tuesday. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are regaining a bit of upside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $27.925. First resistance is seen at $29.495 and then at $29.75. Next support is seen at $29.00 and then at the overnight low of $28.87.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets...  http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

News Source: www.reuters.com

Century Financial Brokers location map

 CENTURY FINANCIAL BROKERS LOCATION MAP

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets... http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

STOCKS TRADE LEVEL

05/03/2013

 

Cameron International Corporation  (Public, NYSE:CAM) 

Buy@ 60, Stop below@59, Target@64

Nabors Industries Ltd.  (Public, NYSE:NBR) 

Buy@15, Stop below@13.50, Target@19

Altria Group Inc  (Public, NYSE:MO)

Buy@33.80, Stop below@33, Target@35.50

Apollo Group Inc  (Public, NASDAQ:APOL) 

Buy@16, Stop below@14, Target @Open

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Mobile : 050-8774861
Direct : 04-3841906
Email : asad@cfb.ae
Email : info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website :   www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.marketwatch.com  

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets...  http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

Italy could reignite euro crisis.

Can the Italians be serious? That is likely to be the reaction of financial markets and the country’s euro zone partners as they ponder a disastrous election result, which could reignite the euro crisis. More than half of those who voted chose one of two comedians: Beppe Grillo, who really is a stand-up comic; and Silvio Berlusconi, who drove Italy to the edge of the abyss when he was last prime minister in 2011. Both are anti-euro populists.
This comedy could easily end in tragedy. The inconclusive result has echoes of last year’s first Greek election – except that Italy is bigger and more strategic. The country faces political paralysis, while its economy is shrinking and its debt is rising. The European Commission forecast last week that GDP would fall a further 1 percent this year after last’s year 2.2 percent drop. Debt, meanwhile, would reach 128 percent of GDP by the end of this year.
The euro crisis went into remission after the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi promised last summer to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency. But, if Italy proves ungovernable during this critical time, even the ECB’s safety net may not work.
Investors are already getting nervous. Italian 10-year bond yields jumped 0.4 percentage points to 4.7 percent on Tuesday morning. Spanish yields also rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.3 percent, in the first sign of contagion. These are, though, admittedly still a far cry from the 7 percent-plus yields when the crisis was raging last July.
The risk is not that Berlusconi or Grillo will be prime minister. It is rather than nobody will be able to form a stable government. The electorate split into three roughly equal groups: Berlusconi’s centre-right group, Grillo’s uncategorisable 5-Star Movement and the centre-left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani. The centrist coalition led by Mario Monti, the technocratic who saved Italy from Berlusconi’s antics but whose austerity policies were deeply unpopular, came a poor fourth.
Italy’s convoluted electoral system gives the coalition with the largest number of votes an automatic majority in the lower house of parliament. This means Bersani will get the first chance to be prime minister, even though his coalition beat Berlusconi’s only by a whisker.
However, a different electoral system in the Senate, which has equal power as the lower house, means nobody will have a majority there. Bersani will not even be able to form a government in alliance with Monti – a scenario which pre-election polls had suggested was a likely outcome. At least Greece has only one house of parliament.
So what happens next? One idea is that Bersani could team up with Berlusconi to form a new grand coalition. This, though, seems unlikely given how they stand for completely opposite policies – unless Italy is dragged right to the brink. It’s also hard to see who would run such a government. If Monti hadn’t made the terrible mistake of running in the election, he would have been the natural choice. But his credibility has been shot to bits.
Grillo has said he won’t form a coalition with anybody, so a formal alliance with him isn’t an option. But Bersani could conceivably try to govern on his own, getting support on a case-by-case basis from the comedian. That, though, would be a recipe for extremely weak government.
Another option is a fresh election, as there was in Greece last year. Indeed, it’s hard to see how a new ballot can be avoided. The snag is that it isn’t obvious this would resolve the deadlock given that there are three roughly equal forces which don’t want to work together.
Some pundits think a solution could be to change the electoral system. That could conceivably clear away the old political caste, preparing the way for new parties and new leaders such as Matteo Renzi, the young centrist mayor of Florence. But Italy’s parliament has been debating new voting rules for years without coming to a conclusion and it may find it tough to reach consensus now.
Meanwhile, investors will give their verdict. A key question is whether Italy can still rely on the ECB’s support – its promise to buy potentially unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds. While this a very powerful drug, it contains important fine print: the ECB will only engage in so-called “outright monetary transactions” if the country concerned agrees to a reform programme with its euro zone partners.
It is hard to see Italy being able to sign such a programme without a stable government – which means the safety net has holes in it. If investors start thinking this way, bond yields could spiral upwards and capital flight could resume. The prospect of crisis could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Contagion could return with a vengeance too. Other countries may have more stable governments than Italy. But Spain, Greece and even France share its problems of a shrinking economy, rising debt and increasing popular anger against austerity. The longer recession bites, the greater the appeal of populist policies. Investors may worry anew that the race between populism and the return of growth will be lost across the euro zone.
A market fright could, of course, restore Italian voters to their senses when and if there’s a second election. That is what happened in Greece last year. But the next few months could be extremely jumpy and a happy outcome is not sure.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Mobile : 050-8774861
Direct : 04-3841906
Email : asad@cfb.ae
Email : info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website :   www.cfb.ae

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated on the markets... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

News Source: www.reuters.com

Billionaires Soros, Bacon Cut Gold Holdings on Decline

Billionaire investors George Soros and Louis Moore Bacon cut their stakes in exchange-traded products backed by gold last quarter as futures dropped the most in more than eight years. John Paulson maintained his holding.

Soros Fund Management LLC reduced its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest fund backed by the metal, by 55 percent to 600,000 shares as of Dec. 31 from three months earlier, a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed yesterday. Bacon’s Moore Capital Management LP sold its entire stake in the SPDR fund and lowered holdings in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust. Paulson & Co., the largest investor in SPDR, kept its stake at 21.8 million shares.

The fourth-quarter decisions by Soros and Bacon may bolster speculation that gold’s 12-year bull-run is coming to an end as economic data from the U.S. to China show signs of recovery, curbing haven demand. Global ETP holdings have lost 0.9 percent since reaching a record on Dec. 20. UBS AG reduced its one-month price target yesterday by 6.8 percent, saying economic optimism “takes the shine off defensive assets,” including bullion. Gold futures fell to a five-month low today.
“The reduction in holdings by George Soros may unnerve the market a little bit,” said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “The market may also be watching Paulson, and those are steady.”

Gold fell below $1,600 an ounce today for the first time since August. Futures for April delivery slumped 1.8 percent to $1,605.40 at 10:49 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after touching $1,596.70, the lowest since Aug. 15. The most-active contract, which has lost 4.3 percent this year, declined 5.5 percent in the final three months of 2012, the biggest quarterly decline since June 2004.

‘Downside Risks’

Hedge funds have cut bets on a gold rally by 56 percent since reaching a 13-month high in October as manufacturing rebounded from the U.S. to China. It’s increasingly probable that prices peaked in 2011 and so-called downside risks are building as the world expands, Tom Kendall, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in London, said in a report e-mailed Feb. 1. Futures rallied to $1,923.70 on Sept. 6, 2011.
Growth will accelerate in the U.S. and China, the two largest economies, in the coming quarters, according to more than 100 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In the U.S., claims for jobless benefits dropped 27,000 to 341,000 in the week to Feb. 9, fewer than any of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected, the Labor Department said yesterday.
Lone Pine Capital LLC, the hedge fund run by Stephen Mandel Jr., and Scout Capital Management LLC sold their entire stakes in the SPDR Gold Trust in the quarter, filings showed.

‘Looking Better’

Global gold investment, including bars, coins and ETPs, dropped 8.3 percent to 424.7 tons in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said in a report yesterday. Full-year investment slid 9.8 percent to 1,534.6 tons, it said.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to a five-year high yesterday and has surged 6.7 percent in 2013. The gauge has more than doubled since bottoming in March 2009 as the U.S. Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of bond buying to lower interest rates, boost growth and support the labor market.
The U.S. central bank will keep purchasing securities at the rate of $85 billion a month, according a statement from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on Jan. 30. Gold may have a sharp rally as investors seek so-called real assets, Elliott Management Corp., the hedge fund founded by Paul Singer, said in a document accompanying its fourth-quarter report on Jan. 28, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg.

‘Come Back’

While people would rather invest in “economically sensitive commodities and equities” as data improved, “we may see people come back to gold if troubles in Europe get worse and problems in the U.S. reappear,” said Adrian Day, who manages about $160 million of assets as president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.

Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, contracted 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, and French GDP dropped 0.3 percent, according to data this week. Japan’s economy, the world’s third largest, is in recession after contracting an annualized 0.4 percent in the final quarter of 2012, following a revised 3.8 percent fall in the previous three months.

Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, was not immediately available when called for comment and did not reply to an e- mail. Armel Leslie, a spokesman for New York-based Paulson & Co., which manages $18 billion, declined to comment. Kenny Juarez, a spokesman for Moore Capital, also declined to comment.

Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in equities must file a Form 13F with the SEC within 45 days of each quarter’s end to show their U.S.-listed stocks, options and convertible bonds. The filings don’t show non-U.S. securities or how much cash the firms hold.
“The economy is looking better, and people are moving to more remunerative assets like equities,” Paul Dietrich, chief executive officer of Foxhall Capital Management Inc., said in a telephone interview from Alexandria, Virginia. “A lot of people have lightened up on gold.”


Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.bloomberg.com

Best Time to Buy Precious Metal Gold, Base Metals Futures, Options – CFTC

Speculators returned as buyers in all precious and base metals futures and options traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Nymex, according to U.S. government data, spurred in part by a rise in prices.
For the week ended Feb. 5, speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report pushed their net-long positions in the platinum group metals to even higher highs. Funds also bolstered their net-long positions in copper on hopes of a strong economic outlook. There were increases in speculators’ net-long positions in gold and silver, although the gains were relatively modest in silver.
Prices were firmer across the board during the timeframe measured. In the week to Feb. 5, Comex April gold rose $10.80 to $1,673.50 an ounce, while March silver gained 69.10 cents to $31.875 an ounce. Nymex April platinum rose $28.30 to $1,707.20 an ounce during the week, while March palladium rose $15.70 to $765.45. March copper gained 7.85 cents to $3.7700 a pound.
After slashing positions in the previous report, managed-money accounts lightly boosted exposure to gold futures and options in the disaggregated report, increasing their net-long position to 86,926 contracts. Managed-money accounts added 4,807 gross longs and cut 38 gross shorts. Producers added to their net-short position by cutting more gross longs than gross shorts, while swap dealers lifted their net-short position by cutting gross longs and adding gross shorts.
Market watchers said the modest increase in the speculative net-long in this report likely reflects the see-saw action gold has exhibited lately, meaning that participants are likely not keen to put on big positions in a market that shows no solid direction.
The situation was different in the legacy report as non-commercials sharply increased their net-long position, having added 13,623 gross longs and 198 gross shorts. They are now net-long 144,495 contracts. Despite the jump in the net-long position, it does not make up for the heavy drop seen in the previous week’s report. Commercials are net-short, having heavily cut gross longs and just a handful of gross shorts.
Barclays noted that “fund length as a percentage of open interest has risen to 32% but gross short positions are at their highest since July 2012, posing the potential for a short-covering rally, should macro data worsen.”
The silver net-long position for the managed-money accounts rose modestly to 29,628 contracts. They reduced exposure in general to silver, but rise came from cutting more gross shorts, 1,510 contracts, than gross longs, 1,461. Producers are net-short and amplified that position by adding more gross shorts than gross longs. Swap dealers are also net-short, but reduced their position by cutting more gross longs than gross shorts.
In the legacy report, the silver net-long for non-commercials also rose slightly, in similar fashion. They cut 1,526 gross longs and cut 1,970 gross shorts, signifying the gain came mostly from short covering. They are now net-long 37,365 contracts. Commercials are net-short, and expanded exposure by adding more gross shorts than gross longs.
Again, speculators in both disaggregated and legacy reports in the platinum group metals further extended the net-long positioning, setting fresh records.
Managed-money accounts in platinum increased their net-long position to 42,530 contracts, having added 1,898 gross longs and 305 gross shorts.  Non-commercials also augmented their net-long position, which now is 52,026 contracts, having added 3,090 gross longs and 1,026 gross shorts.
In palladium, the managed-money accounts raised the net-long position to 22,824 contracts. They added 814 gross longs and 522 gross shorts to increase the net-long position. In the legacy report, non-commercials added 1,442 gross longs and 416, lifting their net-long to 25,734 contracts.
“Net long positions in silver, platinum and palladium were also increased slightly further, which expresses how optimistic market players currently are about the more cyclical precious metals in particular, which are predominantly used in industry,” Commerzbank said.
Anne-Laure Tremblay, precious metals strategist at BNP Paribas, said while risk appetite is driving PGMs, she said investors need to stay vigilant with positioning at record highs. Several other market watchers have said recently PGMs could be vulnerable to sharp sell-offs if bullish sentiment changes.
The copper net-long position for the managed-money accounts rose significantly, to 22,650 contracts, as they added 9,691 gross longs and 1,489 gross shorts. The rise of net longs was more pronounced in the legacy report. Funds bolstered their net-long position, adding 11,213 gross longs and 4,390 gross shorts. They are net-long 16,187 contracts.
The sharp gains seen in net-long positioning in copper was reflected in the rise in prices, said Commerzbank. “Thus money managers have contributed to the 2% increase in the price of copper seen during the period under review, evidently inspired by positive economic data both from China and the U.S. at the beginning of the month,” they said.




Asad Rasheed
Mob:050-8774861
Email:asad@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our websit.  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.kitco.com

George Soros's most-promising picks

Small- and mid-cap stocks don't get as much attention from bankers, third-party analysts and the media, which often leaves them less-efficiently priced than their larger peers. Generally speaking, hedge funds take advantage of this by dedicating their research teams to work on the little guys, and consequently, they generate a significant portion of their alpha from the small-cap world.

At Insider Monkey, we've empirically tested this phenomenon, and according to our own analysis, investing in the hedge fund industry's top small-cap picks has generated an alpha of about 120 basis points per month. 

Let's take a look at the top small-cap stock picks of one hedge fund in particular: George Soros's Soros Fund Management. The stocks presented here have market capitalizations between $1 billion and $5 billion, which is consistent with the criterion used in our strategy ( see all of George Soros's stock picks ). 

According to its last 13F filing with the SEC, the No. 1 small-cap stock in Soros's fund was Adecoagro SA AGRO +1.34% . With a little under 26 million shares, Soros owns approximately 21.3% of Adecoagro's outstanding shares. Since its U.S. IPO roughly two years ago, the agricultural holding company has lost 25.5% of its value, but shares have been in the green since the start of 2013.

The crux of Adecoagro's bullish thesis lies in its exposure to one of the best asset classes out there for the long run: arable land. The company owns around 40 different farming properties throughout Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Though most investors are aware that farmland prices have been skyrocketing in the United States, Brazil, for example, has also seen the average value of its arable land increase by nearly fourfold over the past decade ( via Informa Economics FNP). Uruguayan and Argentinian farmlands have experienced a similar boom. 

Another benefit of Adecoagro's portfolio — which is most heavily concentrated in Argentina — is its crop diversity, which reduces its exposure to one commodity in particular, like corn or wheat. At a mere 14.9 times forward earnings, shares of Adecoagro are cheap at the moment, and the sell-side expects the company to finish 2013 with earnings of 63 cents a share — nearly twice its 2012 forecast. Ospraie Management's Dwight Anderson is also very bullish about this stock ( see Anderson's top picks ). 

Acacia Research Corporation ACTG -1.18% is the second-largest small-cap stock in Soros's portfolio, worth a little over 1.1% of his total 13F holdings. The company and its subsidiaries match patent owners and inventors to corporate partners. Acacia holds 250 different patent portfolios for use in medicine, media, IT and energy. Oil and gas production is the company's latest play as we head into the third week of 2013. 

Some bears may cry "troll," while others may believe that its business model is perfectly legitimate, but the fact is this: The number of patent portfolios under Acacia's banner has close to quadrupled over the past half-decade. The sell-side expects earnings growth of 38% annually through 2017. At a price-to-earnings growth multiple near 0.7, the markets are clearly undervaluing these prospects, and we'll be watching Acacia's presence in the energy industry closely. Famed "magic formula" man Joel Greenblatt was also quite bullish on this company in his last 13F filing ( see all of Joel Greenblatt's stock picks here ). 

Internet-based photo-publishing service Shutterfly SFLY +1.17% is George Soros's third-largest small-cap investment. The hedge fund manager owns about 8.4% of Shutterfly's outstanding shares, with short-sellers shorting another 21% of the company. Despite this abnormally high level of bearish investors, shares of Shutterfly have actually gained 9.2% since the start of the year on the back of an upgrade from Topeka Capital Markets and the acquisition of ThisLife, a cloud-based media storage provider. 

Topeka now holds a $40 price target on the stock, specifically citing the belief "that current competitors will continue to struggle to achieve sustained profitability." Generally speaking, Wall Street sees an upside of 15%-16% from these levels. At depressed book (1.9x) and sales (2.2x) multiples, Shutterfly offers investors value as well. 

Cheniere Energy LNG -0.30% , the liquefied-natural-gas company, sits at No. 38 in Soros's 13F portfolio, and is his next largest small-cap holding. Cheniere has been a beast since mid-November, gaining over 40% in value. As its ticker symbol suggests, the company is currently the U.S.'s only approved LNG export terminal. The Department of Energy's Federal Energy Regulatory Commission believes the site will have the capacity to ship 2.6 billion cubic feet of gas per day when export activity commences in late 2015. 

While it remains to be seen exactly how many of Cheniere's peers — like Dominion Resources (D), for example — will gain terminal approval, forward-looking investors can take solace in this exclusivity at the moment. 

Last, but certainly not least, rounding out our top five is U.S. Airways Group LCC -0.74% . U.S. Airways is closing in on a merger with American Airlines, which, if completed, should generate around $500 million in cost savings, and additional revenue close to twice this estimate. Up 9.5% in the New Year, investors are certainly cheery on the prospects of a deal being done, but it's worth noting that in isolation, LCC still trades at a measly 0.18 times sales. The iconic David Tepper and his fund, Appaloosa Management, are also bullish on U.S. Airways.

Bernanke downplays risks from bond-buying

 Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke downplayed fears expressed by some more hawkish Fed officials and investors that the Fed's bond-buying program will lead to higher inflation or future asset bubbles in the future. "I don't believe significant inflation is going to be the result of any of this,"

 Bernanke said in an appearance at the University of Michigan. Whether Fed policy will lead to asset bubbles in the future is "a difficult question," Bernanke said. The Fed is monitoring markets and toughening supervision to guard against financial instability, he said. The worst thing for the Fed to do would be "to raise interest rates prematurely," he said.

Six killed in UAE road accidents

• 
  Thinkstock/Getty Images - Six people, including two women, were killed in traffic accidents in Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) over the weekend, UAE daily Gulf News reported on Sunday.

Six people, including two women, were killed in traffic accidents in Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) over the weekend, UAE daily Gulf News reported on Sunday.

Two women were killed and three others were wounded in a deadly road accident in RAK.

According to Colonel Abdullah Al Munkis from RAK police, the accident happened on Friday night at Al Jazeera Al Hamra Road, when the car driven by a 42-year-old Arab woman suddenly swerved onto the side of the road. The woman was accompanied by her 14-year-old daughter and her three friends, who are sisters, as they headed for a picnic.

The mother and the daughter, who were sitting in the front seat, were killed on the spot, while the three sisters were immediately taken to the hospital, the report said.

Meanwhile, a 19-year-old Emirati man died on the spot on Friday evening in a traffic accident at the Awafi area of RAK and two others sustained serious injuries.

In Dubai, two Indian men were killed and three were critically injured in an accident on Al Khail Road on Saturday morning.

The injured are fighting for their lives in hospital. They were travelling in a car, which skidded off the road and crashed into a lamp post on the side of the road.

The 40-year-old driver lost control of the vehicle due to speeding and slippery road conditions, Gulf News reported, citing a police report.

In Sharjah, a truck driver died when his truck crashed into University Bridge on the Sharjah-Maliha road.

U.S. Dec. budget deficit $260 million: Treasury

The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $260 million in December, the Treasury Department reported Friday, bringing the total shortfall for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 to $292 billion.

 Receipts in December were $269.5 billion, while the government spent $269.7 billion in the month. Year to date, the deficit is 9% lower than in the first three months of the prior fiscal year. The U.S. government's fiscal year runs from October to September.

Where next for the Australian dollar?

SYDNEY (Market Watch) — The Australian dollar has survived a drop in commodity prices and lower interest rates this year, but will the world’s fifth-most-traded currency head lower in the new year? 

The “aussie”— which accounts for around 7% of global foreign-exchange trade — presently trades well over the $1.05 mark, near where it started the year. 

Relatively high domestic interest rates, a triple-A credit rating and an outperforming economy have laid the foundations for the currency’s strength over the last few years, after it started 2009 at around 70 U.S. cents.

It stumbled mid-year to as low as 96 U.S. cents, when a drop in commodity prices raised questions about the future strength of Australian exports, and downward pressure on interest rates eroded some of its yield advantage against rivals. 

Since then, however, iron-ore prices are off their worst levels, thanks to signs that China’s economy is stabilizing, and while interest rates are still well above levels found in many other developed world economies. But analysts say these issues alone don’t fully explain the recent revival in the Australian currency’s fortunes. 

“The simplest answer is that some other factor matters more, and the likely candidate is the risk-on/risk-off dynamic,” HSBC currency strategists said in a recent research note.

“Even a cursory glance at the evidence suggests a strong and consistent relationship between the Australian dollar-U.S. dollar pair and the performance of the U.S. equity market, in turn a reliable proxy for the wider risk-on/risk-off phenomenon,” the strategists said. 

From 2009, the Australian dollar’s rate against the U.S. currency has shown a more than 75% correlation with moves in the S&P 500 according to HSBC’s research. 

Fed matters

Risk-on/risk-off trading in the last few years has in itself largely resulted from massive central-bank liquidity injections into financial markets, where the sheer weight of money has created its own trading force. Money has found a home in many assets, pushing prices up. 

One of the banks leading the way in quantitative easing has been the Federal Reserve, which has had something of a knock-on effect on the U.S. dollar’s performance against rivals such as the aussie.

After their initial push following the 2008 global financial crisis, the central banks again ramped up policy-support measures and liquidity in the latter part of this year, with the Fed recently pledging billions more a month to support the U.S. economy, giving fresh legs to the Australian dollar. 

The Australian dollar “is still being influenced by global factors,” said Alvin Pontoh, currency strategist at TD Securities, who has an end-2013 target of $1.03 for the aussie. 

Pontoh believes the Fed is likely to extend quantitative easing at least to the end of next year, and the European Central Bank will also likely cut interest rates further.

Gold drops on stalemate in U.S. budget talks

Precious-Gold dropped on Tuesday trading on renewed worries regarding the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff as officials did not reach a solution yet, thereby threatening both U.S. and global recovery.

The shiny metal slipped for a third straight session to trade around $1704.66 an ounce, where it found support at $1701.66, which represents the Simple Moving Average (SMA) 100 level on the daily charts, after it fell from a high of $1717.35.

The trading range for today is expected among the key support at $1690.00 and the key resistance now at $1730.00.

Still, the main director of market sentiment is the U.S. fiscal cliff; it threatens the world`s biggest economy of falling back into recession if $607 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts start in January.

Yesterday, House of Republicans suggested a $2.2 trillion deficit-cutting plan, yet White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer replied that it “does not meet the test of balance.”

With the sluggish progress seen in U.S. budget talks the tensions are heightening and weigh on shares and commodities.

Gold is now moving with the U.S dollar as they both face downside pressure of the little progress in the budget negotiations.

The dollar index plummeted today to record a low of 79.80 after opening today`s trading at 79.89.

On the other hand, the euro is resuming its upside direction to six-week high versus the greenback after Greece said yesterday it would spend 10 billion euros to buy-back bonds via a modified Dutch auction.

Euro area finance ministers expressed their confidence that Greece will handle a successful bond buyback on Dec. 7, lifitng up expectations the debt crisis is abating.

Later in the day, European Union finance ministers will meet in Brussels to continue their pursuit to ease the three-year-old debt crisis.

Crude oil for January`s delivery inched down to $88.68 per barrel compared with the day`s opening level of $88.90.

Among other precious metals, silver retreated to $33.28 from the day`s opening of $33.32, platinum ticked down to $1592.75 from $1594.25, and palladium inched up to $678.60 from $678.40.