Showing posts with label forex markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex markets. Show all posts

Monday, March 25, 2013

Stocks Trade Level for Today



25/03/2013

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.  (Public, NYSE:CF)

Buy@ 190, Stop below@188, Target@ 198

Deere & Company (Public, NYSE:DE)

Discover Financial Services  (Public, NYSE:DFS) 

Sell @Market Price; Stop above@46, Target @43.50

ConocoPhillips  (Public, NYSE:COP)

Sell @61; Stop above@62.40, Target @58.70


Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae
 Here are some useful links that you can follow:
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated 
on the markets...   http://centuryfinancialbroker.wordpress.com/




Saturday, March 23, 2013

Cyprus closes in, on EU bailout U-turn on levy

In Finland, an ally of Germany in disciplining euro zone partners, European affairs minister Alexander Stubb told Reuters he was confident Cyprus would accept EU rescue terms "because there are no other options".
Cyprus is expected to make a dramatic U-turn on Saturday to avert the imminent threat of financial meltdown, having signaled it is willing to tax big savers in its stricken banks to clinch a bailout from the European Union.

The island's partners in the 17-nation euro zone scheduled a meeting for Sunday in Brussels, in a strong sign they believe a solution is near.
 
As hundreds of demonstrators faced off with riot police outside parliament late into Friday night, lawmakers inside voted to nationalize pension funds, pool state assets for a bond issue and peel good assets from bad in stricken banks.

Officials said a deal was imminent to raise 5.8 billion euros demanded by the EU in return for a 10 billion euro ($13.00 billion) lifeline, including some kind of levy on bank deposits, which could be voted on as soon as Saturday.

Without a deal by Monday, the European Central Bank has threatened to cut off cash for Cypriot banks, spelling certain collapse and possible ejection from the euro.
Cyprus moved perilously close to bankruptcy when its parliament threw out the proposed levy on Tuesday, with Cypriots enraged by plans to hit small holdings of ordinary savers as well as large accounts, many held by foreign investors.

In the absence of the bank levy, Nicosia turned to Russia, whose citizens have billions of euros at stake in Cyprus's outsized banking sector. But Finance Minister Michael Sarris returned from Moscow empty-handed. On Friday he said the bank levy was back "on the table".
Party officials told Reuters that discussions were centered on a levy on depositors holding over 100,000 euros, sparing smaller savers. One official said the tax could be limited to big savers at the island's biggest lender, Bank of Cyprus, at a 20 percent rate.

Lawmakers adopted a bill that would pave the way for the government to split its failing lenders into good and bad banks. The measure is likely to target Bank of Cyprus and No. 2 lender Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and would make it easier for the government to safeguard deposits that enjoy a state guarantee of up to 100,000 euros.
"With the process of consolidation, the depositors over 100,000 euros will wait for several years to see how much of their deposits they will collect," said Averof Neophytou, deputy leader of the ruling Democratic Rally party.

"At the same time, this political decision to support this harsh law safeguards 100 percent of the deposits of 361,000 depositors in Laiki Bank," he added, referring to depositors with up to 100,000 euros.

The pace of the unfolding drama has stunned Cypriots, who barely a month ago elected conservative President Nicos Anastasiades on a mandate to secure a bailout.
But lawmakers balked at hitting small savers with the bank levy, a rejection of the kind of strict austerity signed up to by Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy over the last three years of Europe's debt crisis.

Germany warned Cyprus it was "playing with fire". Moody's downgraded its credit rating on deposits in Cypriot banks to Caa3, just two rungs from the bottom on its 11-grade scale of junk debt.
The EU says the only way to find the 5.8 billion euros Cyprus needs to contribute to the bailout of its banks is from the depositors who put money in them.

The tottering banks hold 68 billion euros in deposits, including 38 billion in accounts of more than 100,000 euros - enormous sums for an island of 1.1 million people which could never sustain such a big financial system on its own. Much of the banks' capital was wiped out by investments in Greece.
Many of the biggest depositors are foreigners, including rich Russians, and European politicians are loathe to spend taxpayers' money on a bailout if the depositors take no losses.

"EDGE OF AN ABYSS"
With banks in Cyprus closed until Tuesday, Cypriots have been besieging bank cash machines all week. Faced with an almost certain run on banks when they reopen, parliament also gave the government the power to impose capital controls.

"Our so-called friends and partners sold us out," said Marios Panayides, 65, a protester at the parliament. "They have completely abandoned us on the edge of an abyss."
Retailers, facing cash-on-delivery demands from suppliers, warned stocks were running low.
"At the moment, supplies will last another two or three days," said Adamos Hadijadamou, head of Cyprus's Association of Supermarkets. "We'll have a problem if this is not resolved by next week."
The Bank of Cyprus urged the government to go back and cut a deal with the EU under which larger deposits over 100,000 euros would be taxed. It was preferable, it said, to a collapse of the system and ejection from the euro which would wipe out assets.
"There must be no further delay," the bank said.

Taking a first step toward financial consolidation, Cyprus arranged on Friday for the takeover of big Greek units of its two biggest banks by a Greek competitor.
EU officials criticize Cyprus for initially insisting any deposit levy should hit even small savers. Cypriot leaders did not want to shift the whole burden to bigger depositors in the apparent hope of saving Cyprus's offshore banking industry.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers that while she wanted to keep Cyprus in the euro zone, it must first recognize it had no future as an offshore financial center, two parliamentarians told Reuters.

Her finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said that muted reactions to the crisis in financial markets showed the euro zone was able to contain the Cyprus problem.
The Dutch head of the euro zone finance ministers' group, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said the group wanted to keep Cyprus in the currency union. But when asked, he did not rule out an exit.
"All kinds of scenarios are possible and the scenarios we're focusing on are to come to a joint solution in which Cyprus is saved but in which the banking sector continues in a smaller but healthier form."

Contact Us:


Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae
Here are some useful links that you can follow:
 
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated 
on the markets...   http://centuryfinancialbroker.wordpress.com/

News Source: www.reutuers.com 


Thursday, March 21, 2013

Iran will destroy Israeli cities if attacked: Khamenei


Iran's clerical supreme leader said on Thursday the Islamic Republic would destroy the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa if it came under attack from the Jewish state.
"At times the officials of the Zionist regime (Israel) threaten to launch a military invasion but they themselves know that if they make the slightest mistake the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in an address to mark the Iranian new year.
Israel has threatened military action against Iran unless it abandons nuclear activities which the West suspects are intended to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran denies this, saying it wants nuclear energy only for civilian purposes.

 
In his televised speech, Khamenei said Iran's struggles over the past year against international sanctions imposed over its disputed nuclear program resembled a battle and that its enemies had confessed to trying to "cripple the Iranian nation".

"What happened last year, we need to learn a lesson," he said, alluding to what he described as Iran's significant scientific and military advances. "This vibrant nation will never be brought to its knees."
Khamenei also called for Iran's "natural right" to enrich uranium for nuclear energy to be recognized by the world. Western powers have refused, saying Iran has hidden nuclear work from U.N. inspectors and stonewalled their investigations.

Talks between Iran and six world powers - the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany - are to resume early next month in a further attempt to strike a deal on Iranian nuclear aspirations.But Khamenei was cool to a U.S. suggestion of direct talks between the two countries, which severed diplomatic relations after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"I am not optimistic about these talks. Why? Because our past experiences show that talks for the American officials do not mean for us to sit down and reach a logical solution ... What they mean by talks is that we sit down and talk until Iran accepts their viewpoint," he said.
"Iran only wants its enrichment right, which is its natural right, to be recognized by the world."

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae
Here are some useful links that you can follow:
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated 
on the markets...  http://centuryfinancialbroker.wordpress.com/

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

China May Limit Gold to 2% of Foreign Reserves,

www.cfb.ae


China is likely to limit its gold holdings to 2 percent of its total foreign exchange reserves, said Yi Gang, a deputy Chinese central bank governor.

The People’s Bank of China last made known changes to its gold reserves in 2009, announcing that it held 1,054 metric tons. The bank hasn’t made any revisions since then. That’s about 1.8 percent of its total reserves, according to data from the World Gold Council.

“If the Chinese government were to buy too much gold, gold prices would surge, a scenario that will hurt Chinese consumers,” Yi said today in a press briefing in Beijing. “We can only invest about 1-2 percent of the foreign exchange reserves into gold because the market is too small.”
The nation’s reserves, which have surged more than 700 percent since 2004, surpassed the value of all official bullion holdings in January 2004 and rose to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gold has fallen about 4.7 percent this year as the U.S. stocks extended a record rally amid speculation that the FederalReserve may rein in stimulus as the recovery gains traction, curbing demand for safe-haven assets.

China was expected to displace India as the biggest gold consumer last year, according to forecast in November from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Chinese investors sought to protect their wealth by buying gold, after government measures to curb real estate prices and as China’s stock market has fallen in the past decade even though nominal gross domestic product rose fourfold.

Foreign Reserves

About two-thirds of China’s foreign reserves are dollar- denominated and another quarter is in euros, according to Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale SA. China is now encouraging companies and residents to keep more foreign currency in a strategy known as “hiding foreign currencies among people,” meaning that the government’s foreign reserves may “gradually fall,” Yang said.

Gold capped a 12th annual advance in 2012 and rose to a record of $1,921.15 an ounce in 2011. Gold for immediate delivery were little changed today at $1,591.95 at 6:29 p.m. Beijing time.
“We will always keep gold in mind as an option in reserve assets and investments,” Yi said. “We are able to import 500-600 tons a year, or more, but we will also take into consideration a stable gold market.”


Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

Here are some useful links that you can follow:
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily trade advice... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets...  http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

News Source: www.reuters.com

Monday, March 11, 2013

Wall Street rally pauses on global headwinds



www.cfb.ae
 
Wall Street was little changed on Monday as Italy's credit downgrade and disappointing Chinese economic data gave investors a reason to pause after last week's rally that took the Dow to record highs.
Even with the slight decline, the S&P 500 index .SPX was only about 1 percent away from its all-time closing high. U.S. stocks have seen a strong gain in the first three months of the year and pullbacks have been short lived as investors look for an opportunity to buy.
"There's a lot of pent-up demand and people seem to be buying on weakness," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc in Toledo, Ohio.
"I don't see this as anything negative from the standpoint of what the market's done throughout 2013 so far."

The S&P is up 8.7 percent since the beginning of the year, while the Dow has climbed nearly 10 percent. Markets have been cheered by signs of improvement in the U.S. economic recovery, including recent unexpected strength in the labor market.

But a number of potential roadblocks are not far from investors' minds, including worries about the euro zone debt crisis after Fitch downgraded Italy due to the country's political stalemate.
Data over the weekend from China pointed to an uneven recovery for the world's second-largest economy as inflation rose to a 10-month high in February and factory output and consumer spending were weaker than forecast.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI edged down 1.95 points, or 0.01 percent, at 14,395.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slipped 1.89 points, or 0.12 percent, to 1,549.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was off 9.56 points, or 0.29 percent, to 3,234.81.

Dell Inc (DELL.O) has agreed to give Carl Icahn a closer look at its books less than a week after the activist investor joined a growing chorus of opposition to founder Michael Dell's plan to take the world's No. 3 personal computer maker private. Dell shares were up 1.1 percent at $14.31, above the take-private offer price of $13.65.

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW.N) shares jumped 6.4 percent to $10.46 following a report by Barron's that the mortgage insurer's stock could almost double in the next year, boosted by gains in mortgage and healthcare pricing.

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (DKS.N) slumped 7.9 percent to $46.61 after the retailer reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter results and gave a disappointing forecast.

 Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.reuters.com

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

Thursday, March 7, 2013

North Korea threatens nuclear strike, U.N. expands sanctions

North Korea threatens nuclear strike

North Korea threatened the United States on Thursday with a preemptive nuclear strike, raising the level of rhetoric just before the U.N. Security Council approved new sanctions against the reclusive country.

The White House said North Korea's threats would only lead to Pyongyang's further international isolation and declared that the United States was "fully capable" of defending against any North Korean missile attack.

China's U.N. Ambassador Li Baodong said Beijing wanted to see "full implementation" of the new U.N. Security Council resolution that tightens financial restrictions on Pyongyang and cracks down on its attempts to ship and receive banned cargo.

North Korea has accused the United States of using military drills in South Korea as a launch pad for a nuclear war and has scrapped the armistice with Washington that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.

A North Korean general said on Tuesday that Pyongyang was scrapping the armistice. But the two sides remain technically at war as the civil war did not end with a treaty.

North Korea threatens the United States and its "puppet," South Korea, on an almost daily basis.
"Since the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to preemptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest," the North's foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.
North Korea conducted a third nuclear test on February 12, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, and declared it had achieved progress in securing a functioning atomic arsenal. It is widely believed that the North does not have the capacity for a nuclear strike against the mainland of the United States.
With tensions high on the Korean peninsula, the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to expand its sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were agreed after three weeks of negotiations between the United States and China, which has a history of resisting tough measures against its ally and neighbor.

The resolution specifies some luxury items North Korea's elite is not allowed to import, such as yachts, racing cars, luxury automobiles and certain types of jewelry. This is intended to close a loophole that had allowed countries to decide for themselves what constitutes a luxury good.
"These sanctions will bite and bite hard," said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice.
The export of luxury goods to North Korea has been prohibited since 2006, though diplomats and analysts said the enforcement of U.N. sanctions has been uneven.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, welcomed the council's move, saying in a statement that the resolution "sent an unequivocal message to (North Korea) that the international community will not tolerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons."
The success of the new measures, council diplomats said, will depend to a large extent on the willingness of China to enforce them more strictly than it has in the past.

Pyongyang was hit with U.N. sanctions in retaliation for its 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests. Those measures were subsequently tightened and expanded after several rocket launches by the North.
In addition to the luxury goods ban, there is an arms embargo on North Korea, and it is forbidden from trading in nuclear and missile technology.

George Lopez, a professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and a former member of the U.N. panel that monitors North Korea sanctions compliance, said the new measures should have a real impact on North Korea's movement of money and constrain access to equipment for its nuclear and missile programs.

"Now, we may yet see another launch or a bomb test, but over the medium term this resolution will degrade DPRK capabilities to grow its program," Lopez said, using the acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.


THREATS AND WAR GAMES

North Korea's threats were the latest in an escalating war of words by both sides across the armed Korean border this week.
The North's unnamed foreign ministry spokesman said it would be entitled to take military action as of March 11 when U.S.-South Korea military drills move into a full-scale phase.
"North Korea will achieve nothing by continued threats and provocations. These will only further isolate the country and its people and undermine international efforts to promote peace and stability in northeast Asia," Rice told reporters.

President Barack Obama's administration said it had reassured South Korea and Japan "at the highest levels" of its commitment to deterrence, through the U.S. nuclear umbrella and missile defense, in the face of the new threats.

Glyn Davies, the State Department's point man for North Korea, also said in testimony prepared for a Senate hearing that Washington will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state.
Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin called for restraint and an end to the threats. "Let's keep our minds cool and keep focused on the need for the only possible rational course of action, and that is returning to six-party talks," he said.

North Korea, which held a mass military rally in Pyongyang on Thursday in support of its recent threats, has protested against the U.N. censures of its rocket launches. It says they are part of a peaceful space program and that the criticism is an exercise of double standards by the United States.
The North's shrill rhetoric, however, rarely goes beyond just that. Its last armed aggression against the South in 2010 came unannounced, bombing a South Korean island and killing two civilians. It was also accused of sinking a South Korean navy ship earlier in the year, killing 46 sailors.
North Korea was conducting a series of military drills and getting ready for state-wide war practice of an unusual scale, South Korea's defense ministry said earlier.

South Korea and the United States, which are conducting annual military drills until the end of April, are watching the North's activities for signs that they might turn from an exercise to an actual attack, said South Korea's defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok.

Kim declined to confirm news reports that the North has imposed no-fly zones off its coasts in a possible move to fire missiles, but he said any flight ban limited to near the coast would not be for weapons with meaningful ranges.

South Korea's military said in a rare warning on Wednesday that it would strike back at the North and target its leadership if Pyongyang launched an attack.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.reuters.com

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets...  http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Century Financial Brokers Official Video


Century Financial Brokers Official Video...




Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets... http://cfbllc.blogspot.ae/

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Business spending plans gauge hits 13-month high


A gauge of planned U.S. business spending recorded its largest increase in more than a year in January, suggesting growing confidence in the durability of the economic recovery.

The case for the economy's resilience was further bolstered by another report on Wednesday showing that contracts to buy previously owned homes approached a near three-year high last month. Housing is expected to underpin growth this year.

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 6.3 percent, the biggest gain since December 2011. These so-called core capital goods orders had slipped 0.3 percent in December.

"The encouraging tone of this report suggests that the business sector is beginning to feel sufficiently confident about the improving economic outlook to commit to investment activity," said Millan Mulraine, a senior economist at TD Securities in New York.

In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index increased 4.5 percent to its highest since April 2010, just before a home-buyer tax credit expired.

The rise in signed purchase contracts, which become sales after a month or two, added to data such as building permits and house prices that have suggested a decisive turnaround in the housing market.
Home building added to growth last year for the first time since 2005 and economists expect another contribution this year.

Still, the reports are unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's very easy monetary policy stance. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, testifying before Congress for a second straight day, pointed to the pick-up in housing as a sign the U.S. central bank's aggressive easing of monetary policy is gaining traction.
However, he signaled a willingness to press forward with efforts to spur an even stronger recovery and lower the jobless rate, which remains at a lofty 7.9 percent.

Stocks on Wall Street ended more than 1 percent higher on the data and Bernanke's comments, with the Standard & Poor's 500 posting its best daily percentage gain since January 2. The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government debt fell.

FACTORY ACTIVITY COOLING

Although shipments of core capital goods, used to calculate equipment and software spending in the government's measures of gross domestic product, fell last month, economists were little worried.
"The balance between orders and shipments of capital goods is looking healthier as backlogs of core capital goods orders rose for the first time in eight months," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

"Our take is that manufacturing activity - especially in the capital goods area - is bouncing back after cautious behavior ahead of the fiscal cliff."

U.S. factory activity, which helped lift the economy from recession, has cooled in recent months, held back by sluggish domestic demand, tighter fiscal policy in Washington and slowing global growth.
While business investment plans looked strong, the report showed that overall orders for durable goods - items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more - tumbled 5.2 percent as demand for civilian and defense aircraft collapsed. It was the first drop since August.
Orders for civilian aircraft, which are very volatile and which tend to fall at the start of the year, dived 34 percent.

Boeing received orders for only 2 aircraft, down from 183 in December. Economists said the decline was probably not related to the grounding of Boeing's 787 Dreamliners after problems with overheating batteries.

"I haven't heard any reports about airlines canceling their orders. This could be a one-month lull rather than something greater," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities in Stamford, Connecticut.

Defense aircraft orders plunged 63.8 percent after soaring 58.5 percent in December, likely as orders were pushed forward ahead of $85 billion in government-wide spending cuts set to kick in on Friday.
Overall defense capital goods orders plummeted 69.5 percent in January, the sharpest fall since July 2000.

But durable goods orders excluding transportation increased 1.9 percent last month, also the largest gain since December 2011, after increasing 1 percent in December. That was a sign factory activity continues to plod along.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.reuters.com

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated
on the markets... http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Stocks(Trade Levels)



27/02/2013

 

JPMorgan Chase& Co.  (Public, NYSE:JPM) 

Sell @48.50; Stop above@50, Target @46.50

Ford Motor Company  (Public, NYSE:F) 

Buy@ Market Price. Stop below@11.95, Target@13.20

First Solar, Inc.  (Public, NASDAQ:FSLR)

Buy@ 24.50. Stop below@22.25, Target@30.60

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Mobile : 050-8774861
Direct : 04-3841906
Email : asad@cfb.ae
Email : info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website :   www.cfb.ae

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful to stay updated on the markets...  http://century-financial-brokers-uae.blogspot.ae/
 
News Source: www.cfb.ae

Friday, February 22, 2013

U.K. Loses Top Aaa Rating From Moody’s as Growth Weakens

Britain lost its top credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the continuing weakness in the nation’s growth outlook and the challenges that presents to the government’s fiscal consolidation program.
The rating on the U.K. was lowered one level to Aa1 from Aaa and the outlook on the nation’s debt changed to stable, Moody’s said in a statement today. With the U.K.’s high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the government’s balance sheet is unlikely to be reversed before 2016, Moody’s said in the statement.
The cut will increase political pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, with the opposition Labour Party calling on him to scale back his fiscal squeeze as the economic recovery struggles to gain traction. Still, investors often ignore such actions, evidenced by the drop in French 10-year bond yields following a downgrade last year and a rally in Treasuries after the U.S. lost its top rating at Standard & Poor’s in 2011.
“Tonight we have a stark reminder of the debt problems facing our country -- and the clearest possible warning to anyone who thinks we can run away from dealing with those problems,” Osborne said in a statement in London. “Far from weakening our resolve to deliver our economic recovery plan, this decision redoubles it.”

Pound Slumps

The pound slumped after the downgrade in the last half hour of trading in New York, dropping 0.6 percent to $1.5163. Sterling has depreciated 5.6 percent this year, the second-worst performer after the yen among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.
“They have drawn a line in the sand that if we don’t put forth a formidable plan we don’t deserve a triple-A rating,” said Joseph Balestrino, senior fixed-income strategist for Pittsburgh-based Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $51.4 billion of assets.
Britain’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product will climb to 98 percent next year from 90 percent last year and 95.4 percent in 2013, the European Commission said in its winter forecast today.
Osborne’s austerity policies will squeeze the budget deficit to 6 percent next year from 10.2 percent in 2010, when his Conservatives took over in an unprecendented coalition with the Liberal Democrats, according to the predictions by the commission.

‘Shock Absorption’

“Because of the combination of weak growth outlook, substantial fiscal challenges, high and rising debt burden, and the deterioration in shock absorption capacity, we see that the credit worthiness of the U.K. has deteriorated to a level that is more commensurate with Aa1 rating,” Sarah Carlson, a senior credit officer at Moody’s in London, said in a telephone interview.
Osborne said in his autumn statement on Dec. 5 that he’s no longer likely to meet his target to begin cutting the burden of government debt in 2015-16 after his fiscal watchdog cut its growth forecasts. Standard & Poor’s put the U.K.’s rating on a negative outlook a week later.

Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings said on the day of the budget that missing the debt target “weakens the credibility of the U.K.’s fiscal framework.” It will conduct a further formal review of the rating in 2013 incorporating the budget, due March 20. Fitch lowered its outlook on the U.K. to negative from outlook in March 2012. Moody’s lowered its outlook the previous month.
Yields on sovereign securities moved in the opposite direction from what ratings suggested in 53 percent of 32 upgrades, downgrades and changes in credit outlook last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg published in December. Investors ignored 56 percent of Moody’s rating and outlook changes and 50 percent of those by S&P. That’s worse than the longer-term average of 47 percent, based on more than 300 changes since 1974.
“Ultimately it’s a fairly minor action and shouldn’t result in a massive bond market response,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Asset Management in Toronto. “This is an era where developed countries are being downgraded on a regular basis..

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae


For more information please visit our website:  www.cfb.ae

News Source: www.bloomberg.com