EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 06-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices fell on Wednesday pressured by shares in the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences, Energy and Telecommunication Services sectors. The S&P 500 (1751.64) remains below its 20d moving average (1809.5 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1810.1 - negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the US economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended January 31st rose 0.4%. Companies added 175K workers (185K expected) in January after a downwardly revised 227K increase the previous month according to the ADP report. Finally, ISM non-manufacturing rose to 54.0 (53.7 expected) in January from 53.0 the prior month.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts. In Europe, euro zone PMI composite was 52.9 in January in final estimation vs 53.2 in prior one. It was 52.1 the month before. PMI services was 51.6, vs 51.9 expected, vs 51 in December. Separately, euro zone retail sales fell 1.6% in December after a 0.9% gain in November (revised from +1.4%). Economists anticipated them to be down 0.7%. In Germany, PMI services was 53.1 in January vs 53.6 anticipated and 53.5 a month earlier.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was about flat to $97.21. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59). The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 31 January, crude oil inventories increased 440k barrels compared to the previous week. 

Gold was up $3.2 to $1257.9. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1251) and above its 50D MA (@ $1235).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was about flat to 319.35c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 2050 tons to 311225 tons.

UK Market News

AstraZeneca posted 4Q LPS of $0.42 vs EPS of $1.21 a year earlier and operating loss of $591M vs profit of $2.0B on revenue of $6.8B, down 6% (-4% at constant exchange rates), citing "the $1,758M intangible impairment related to Bydureon ($1.10 per share)". FY13 EPS plunged 59% to $2.04 and operating profit was down 54% to $3.7B. The Board declares a second interim dividend of $1.90 per share, bringing the dividend for the full year to $2.80.

Vodafone Group issued a December quarter Interim management statement: "Group revenue for the quarter declined 3.6% to £11.0B, including a 2.1 percentage point impact from adverse foreign exchange movements and a 2.8 percentage point positive impact from M&A and other activity. On an organic basis, Group service revenue decreased 4.8% or 2.4% excluding the impact of mobile termination rate cuts. Emerging markets continued to generate strong organic growth supported by rapidly increasing mobile internet users and data usage. The environment in Europe remains challenging and we have continued to experience intense macroeconomic, regulatory and competitive pressures in the quarter. (...) Organic service revenue in AMAP grew 5.5% in the quarter, with continued strong revenue growth across the majority of our markets. (...) we remain on target to deliver adjusted operating profit of around £5B and free cash flow in the £4.5B- £5.0B range, based on the pro forma guidance given on 2 September 2013."

European Markets

ECB: Governing Council meeting, press conference 2:30pm CET.

Hannover Re announced: "Of the total premium volume booked in the previous year in non-life reinsurance (excluding facultative business and structured reinsurance) amounting to E6,028M, roughly two-thirds of the treaties with a volume of altogether E3,913M were up for renewal as at 1 January 2014. Of this, a premium volume of E3,393M was renewed, while treaties worth E520M were either cancelled or renewed in modified form. Including increases of E401M from new or modified treaties and thanks to improved prices, the total renewed premium volume thus came in at E3,832M - equivalent to a decrease of 2%. Despite various moves by the market to induce softening, Hannover Re was able to write its business at broadly unchanged conditions." On the 2014 outlook the Co said: "The Co has budgeted an amount of E670M for major losses incurred in 2014. Assuming that major loss expenditure does not significantly exceed this expectation and provided there are no unforeseen downturns on capital markets, Hannover Re is looking to generate Group net income of around E850M for the 2014 financial year. The Co is targeting a return on investment of 3.2%."

Daimler, Sky Deutschland, Heidelbergcement, GEA Group FY results expected

Media: Axel Springer (+1.42% to E47.48) reached a new 3-month relative high against the Dax.

DE - Stock/Benchmark ratio(s) 50D MA cross over: Hannover Re (+0.95% to E59.56), Stada Arzneimittel (+1.67% to E35.85).

Vinci announced that FY13 net income grew 2.3% YoY to E2.0B (EPS flat at E3.54) and EBITDA rose 3.3% to E5.6B on revenue of E40.3B, up 4.4%. The Co proposed maintaining dividend at E1.77 per share. It added: "VINCI is expecting stabilisation of its revenue on a constant structure basis in 2014. In Concessions, the Group is expecting the continuation of the positive trends in motorway and airport passenger traffic seen in 2013. In Contracting, despite an on-going difficult economic environment in 2014, especially in France, VINCI has good visibility on activity thanks to the high level of its backlog. The SEA (HSR Tours-Bordeaux) project is expected to continue to materially contribute to the top line, similar to 2013. On an actual structure basis, revenue will be impacted by the deconsolidation of CFE in 2013."

Sanofi reported 4Q business net income up 16.8% to E1.8B (EPS +17.1% to E1.37) on net sales of E8.5B, down 0.8% (+6.5% at constant exchange rates). FY13 business net income fell 17.5% to E6.7B (EPS -17.8% to E5.05). The Co proposed a dividend of E2.80 per share. It pointed out: "In Q4 2013, Emerging Markets sales recorded double digit growth (+10.4%). In 2013, Emerging Markets sales were E10,957M, an increase of 4.4% (+7.1% excluding Brazil generics). (...) Diabetes sales were up 19.0% in Q4 2013. Diabetes recorded strong double digit growth (+18.7%) to E6,568M in 2013 driven by the performance of Lantus (+20.0% to E5,715M). (...) Vaccines sales were stable in Q4 2013 as supply improved for Pentacel and Adacel in the US from mid-October. In 2013, Vaccines sales were stable at E3,716M as record flu vaccines sales offset US supply constraints on Pentacel and Adacel. (...) Genzyme recorded a robust performance in Q4 2013 with sales up 31.4%. In 2013, Genzyme recorded sales of E2,142M, up 25.9% driven by 16.6% growth of the rare disease franchise and by Aubagio (E166M)." It provided a 2014 guidance: "The continued performance of growth platforms, investments in new product launches and in late-stage pipeline should lead to a 2014 business EPS growth between 4% and 7% at CER."

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Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs...

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Bad news for "gold-bugs"—bullion's current beginning-of-the-year rally will not only lose steam, but prices could drop sharply by the end of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie.

Currie, Goldman's head of commodities research, told CNBC on Monday he had an end-of-year price target of $1,050 per ounce for gold, a 16 percent drop based from current prices of $1,251. The main culprit? Economic recovery.

"Our view there really is driven by the expectation of the U.S. economy reaching escape velocity," Curie said on "Essentially when you think about a short on gold ... it's essentially just a bet on a substantial recovery in the U.S. economy."

  Gold prices ballooned in the years since the 2008 financial crisis, driving prices to record highs thanks to ultra-low interest rates from the Federal Reserve's economic stimulus programs. Prices dropped last year amid fears the Fed would scale down those programs earlier than expected, but a weaker-than-expected December employment report re-ignited interest in gold last week.


Currie said gold still worked as a hedge against inflation; he just doesn't see any strong inflationary pressures in the next few years. He said once the economic recovery picks up more momentum, inflation would follow and gold may become attractive again. Gold's early 2014 rally won't last, he said.

"I get it all the time—'Why are you bearish on gold when you expect the U.S. economy to recover?'" Currie said. "You have to think about it in different phases of the business cycle."

Other commodities Currie expects to underperform include beans and copper. Currie remains unwilling to make a big bet against oil because of disruptions in Libya and Iran. Investors continued to move away from commodity-intensive emerging markets and into developed economies, a trend that affects most commodities outside gold, he said.

"They're all driven by the same theme, rotation away from emerging markets and toward developed markets," Currie told CNBC.

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News Source: www.cnbc.com

Gold below $1,200 needed for ‘new equilibrium’

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A drop in gold prices below $1,200 an ounce may precipitate a fresh round of production cuts in the mining sector aimed at re-balancing the market, strategists told CNBC. Although the short-term view on gold remains overwhelmingly negative – with nearly three quarters of respondents in this week's CNBC gold sentiment survey forecasting further weakness for bullion – many say prices may start stabilizing below $1,200 – levels where a supply response from the mining sector may kick in.

"Gold production may fall at prices below $1,200 as it becomes uneconomical for many mines to operate profitably," said Mark O'Byrne, Founder and Executive Director of Dublin-based bullion dealer GoldCore.

An estimated 36 percent of the South African gold industry is loss-making even at today's spot prices, O'Byrne said, adding that 28 percent of the country's gold miners failed to turn a profit in the third-quarter, based on a gold price of $1,330.

Curbs on mine supply, according to UBS strategists Giovanni Staunovo and Dominic Schnider, "should come with the gold price decline toward the marginal cost of production."

  UBS estimates that 10 percent of supply "on a cash cost basis would be loss-making at a price between $1,050 and $1,150/oz. At this level, the gold market should be adequately balanced and find a new equilibrium," they said.

Edmund Moy, Chief Strategist at Morgan Gold and a former director of the U.S. Mint, said major gold miners such as Toronto-based Barrick Gold are already starting to scale back production.
The world's largest producer by sales, Barrick sold three Australian mines this year and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Sokalsky said the company is in talks to sell more assets.

"Many miners have been reducing their capacity like Barrick," Moy said but warned that "if demand for physical gold picks up in the U.S., it will take miners quite a while to re-open their shuttered mines and produce gold."

CNBC's latest survey of market sentiment showed 74 percent of respondents (20 out of 27) expect prices to fall this week, 15 percent (4 out of 27) say prices will trade around current levels while 11 percent (3 out of 27) say prices will rise. Spot gold staged a modest recovery on Monday, climbing 0.5 percent to just under $1,250 after falling earlier to $1,227.34, its lowest level since July 8 after Iran and major western powers struck an initial agreement on Sunday aimed at limiting Tehran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Gold slipped on the perception that the deal lessens the risk of tensions in the Middle East, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven.

ETF outflows
Bullion has fallen about 25 percent so far this year, reflecting concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start winding down its stimulus program as the economy improves. Accommodative monetary policy tends to cheapen the U.S. dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers paying in other currencies.

  "With Fed tapering imminent – and likely to be pulled forward to December if anything – the path of least resistance remains lower and honestly I'm surprised we're not sitting at $1,200 already," said Tom Essaye, a former NYSE floor trader, now President of Florida-based Kinsale Trading LLC, publisher of The 7:00's Report. "The next major catalyst in gold is inflation, but we're still months or quarters from that appearing in the stats."

Investors continue to liquidate holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) and a key measure of investor sentiment, as gold grinds lower.
Holdings fell 4.50 tons to 852.21 tons last Friday, the sharpest drop since Nov. 1 and stood at their lowest since February 2009.

UBS expects more selling. "Once the schedule of the upcoming Fed taper becomes clear – we expect this to start in March 2014 – ETF outflows should intensify." The Swiss bank expects fund outflows of more than 300 tons over the next 12 months.


While futures and options flows combined with Asian demand have been strong enough to offset "modest" ETF outflows in recent months, "we advise investors not to count on these factors once ETF outflows intensifies," UBS said.

A stronger U.S. stock market performance – reflecting a propensity amongst investors to take on more risk – has also undermined the case for gold and the correlation will likely remain a drag on prices, survey respondents said.

Dow industrials eked out a slim gain on Monday to end at another record high, after the Nasdaq topped 4,000 for the first time in 13 years and then slipped to close below that level, Reuters reported. The S&P 500 is up 26.4 percent for the year and the Dow has risen seven weeks in a row.
"Gold continues to be an innocent victim of the frenzy on Wall Street," said Jeff Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors. Gold's appeal may return, however, once investors realize that "super-stimulative" monetary policies pursued by major central banks are creating over-priced stock valuations out of kilter with fundamentals.

"Sooner or later, when the bubble bursts, equity investors will really lose their heads and gold stands to benefit, if not at first, certainly as the dust settles on Wall Street," he said.
Scott Carter, the chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Lear Capital and a long-term gold bull, questioned whether the "wild gains" in the stock market – exemplified by the Dow over 16,000 – are sustainable.

"Let's pause for a moment and think about how outrageous that really is," Carter said. "We are living in a simulated reality. Investors are acquiring and holding gold because they know that the market bubble will burst."

Carter added: "Gold remains a hedge, a protection strategy, a diversification tool, and a long-term savings shelter. It has historically always done its job."

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News Source: www.cnbc.com

Gold Likely To Crash As ETF’s Pull Out...

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Gold is trading at 1333.70 flat in the Asian session as traders sell off to book profits after gold rallied. Gold prices in the futures markets are likely to be range-bound with a bias towards the downside in line with the global market. As it has been happening this year, the yellow metal once again is facing selling pressure. Investors are opting to sell at every rise and Monday’s over one per cent rise in the precious metal has given them an opportunity to cash in their investments. Data showed a climb in ETF purchases for the first time since June trader’s responded push up gold prices to recent highs. The market seems bent on hammering gold and that is one of the reasons why even data showing lower than expected growth are unable to drive it higher. The rise in gold holdings in exchange-traded funds did not happen on Monday as they were unchanged at 911.13 tonnes on SPDR Trust, world’s largest for gold.


Gold is taking a breather today after four days of gains but is holding near three-week highs on hopes that physical buyers and investors will return to the market.  The recent rally was sparked by the release of strong Chinese factory data on Friday which pushed up metals prices. The metal has gained over 4 per cent in the last four sessions through Monday, also profiting from US dollar weakness and a surprise rise in holdings of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gold rose nearly 2 per cent in the previous session on strong Chinese gold consumption and an inflow to SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold ETF. The top eight gold ETFs have recorded outflows of about $US26 billion so far this year, hurting gold prices. A reversal in the trend will aid a price recovery.

China’s consumption of gold in the first six months of the year surged by more than half as sliding prices of the metal lured buyers, data showed, reinforcing expectations that the nation will overtake India as the world’s top gold consumer this year. Gold prices have lost about a fifth of their value this year after 12 years of gains, releasing pent-up demand across the world and particularly in India and China.

China consumed 706.36 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2013, up 54 per cent from the year-ago period, the China Gold Association said in a statement on its website.


Silver eased by close to 10 cents this morning after skyrocketing above the 21 price level on industrial demand and a rise in precious metals over the last few sessions. Silver is trading at 21.243 remaining strong against the gaining US dollar, which is trading at 81.44 this morning. Copper slipped while aluminum extended gains on Monday as signs of a pickup in top metals consumer China and expectations of encouraging eurozone data came up against a rise in the dollar.

 The U.S. commodities market regulator has subpoenaed a number of major metals warehousing firms, including Switzerland based commodities giant Glencore, seeking documents and communications from the last three years as an inquiry into complaints about inflated metals prices gathers steam. The metals warehousing scandal is weighing heavily on major US investment banks which control the prices and costs.

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News Source: www.cnbc.com

Gold Prices Still Responding To Fed Stimulus...

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Precious metals diverged this morning with gold climbing by $5.25 to trade at 1339.95, and silver has declined by 17 cents to trade at 20.275.  Gold futures declined on profit-booking, marking their first decline in 4-sessions just after the metal’s biggest one-day price gain in more than a year. Prices mostly traded in a range, as investors weighed the US Federal Reserve’s next move on monetary stimulus against the prospects for demand amid higher prices.

A report in Bloomberg yesterday, said that they are expecting the Fed to reduce its monthly asset purchases in September to 68 billion from the current 85 billion. Gold has recovered about $150 from a three-year low of $1,180.71 an ounce hit on June 28, after the US Federal Reserve said it would only start phasing out its stimulus once it was sure the economy was strong enough to stand on its own. This allayed fears of imminent cuts to the Federal Reserve’s monthly bond purchases, which is tantamount to printing money and supports gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.

The dollar traded lower against the euro and pared gains against the yen in a thin volume trade on Tuesday, as investors adjusted positions with technical levels in the absence of any economic data to drive direction. The combined government debt of 17-euro zone nations rose to 92.2% of gross domestic product, the highest in its history – in the first quarter of 2013, despite stringent austerity measures deployed in the region since the beginning of the financial crisis.

The base metals complex traded on a positive note as a result of a rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the US dollar acted as a positive factor for prices.
However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of LME inventories scenario and compounded by the scandal in inventory prices and Goldman. The Federal Reserve faces new pressure to explain why it lets banks trade raw materials and control supplies after congressional witnesses said regulators can’t really grasp what lenders are doing in industrial businesses.

Copper prices traded on a positive note in the yesterday’s trade increased around 0.5 percent on the back of decline in LME copper inventories around 0.4 percent which stood at 632050 tons.  Further, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets supported an upside in prices.


Traders can expect the base metals group to trade on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX will act as a negative factor. Additionally, a decline in China’s manufacturing data which is at 11-month low will exert downside pressure in prices. However, a sharp downside in prices will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of expectations of favorable manufacturing and services PMI data from the eurozone. Markets are expecting to see a climb towards 50 for eurozone PMI’s a miss could see some volatility in the marketplace.

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News Source: www.reuters.com 

Fed Exit Strategy Will Be ''Treacherous''...

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As the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting, economist Nouriel Roubini and political scientist Ian Bremmer warned that the Fed's monetary easing exit strategy would be "treacherous" and would lead to financial instability.

"We know how the movie ended, and we may be poised for a sequel. The weak real economy and job market, together with high debt ratios, suggest the need to exit monetary stimulus slowly. But a slow exit risks creating a credit and asset bubble as large as the previous one, if not larger," they wrote in a report published in Institutional Investor magazine.

Roubini, better known as "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic economic forecasts, and Bremmer, president of global political risk research and consulting Eurasia Group warned that the real underlying risks to the global economy were being ignored.

In the report, they warned that market complacency among politicians, investors and central banks was leading us into a "New Abnormal" era - a "period in which every market assumption must be questioned and the wise investor is prepared to be surprised."

"Unfortunately, the sense of crisis has lifted on all fronts, encouraging some to see in the changed landscape a sustainable 'new normal', a period of painfully slow but predictable economic progress," they said.

"Some believe that U.S. lawmakers can now afford to postpone tough choices, the Europeans will muddle through, China can smoothly rebalance its economy, and fires in the Middle East can simply burn themselves out. These are dangerous illusions," the authors said.

"The convulsions of the past five years arose from structural faults – financial, economic and political – that have not been fully resolved," despite the exuberance in financial markets.
There were more reasons why political and market turbulence had "plenty of room to run," the authors said, telling investors to expect more political and policy gridlock, market volatility and even another crisis as governments' monetary policies reached a crossroad.

Global markets had focused on the wrong risk triggers for the last five years, Bremmer told CNBC late on Monday."For the last five years our focus has been on the financial crisis - on the fiscal cliff, will the euro zone break down, will Japan crumble under its debt? And the reality is that those were not serious structural risks, those were much more stable places," Bremmer told CNBC's "Closing Bell."

"We have to start paying more attention to the real risks because they're growing every day, both the macro pieces that are truly in play and we've not seen anything like this in generations with global powers having very different perspectives on the market place and politics," he added.
The authors added that there were more, new worries posed by emerging markets as growth slowed there and governments were slow to implement reforms.

Bremmer warned that the relationship between China and the U.S. would be key.
"Whether we're talking about cyber, whether we're talking about market access, trade secrets of trade craft, the relationship between China and the U.S. is very difficult to manage and it's not been given priority by either the Chinese or U.S.," he said.

"A pragmatic, mutually profitable geopolitical partnership forged by the U.S. and China is our best hope if the New Abnormal is to end with a smooth landing," Bremmer and Roubini concluded.

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News Source: www.cnbc.com                           

Gold drops as traders await For FOMC...

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Gold futures fell Monday, with analysts anticipating choppy price action as traders position themselves ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week that will be closely watched for clues to the central bank’s next monetary-policy step.

Gold for August delivery GCQ3 -0.28% fell $5.90, or 0.4%, to $1,381.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Particular focus will be on the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting, considering the recent rise in government bond yields. We think risks for gold remain to the downside as central banks are unlikely to announce more easing,” said Valérie Plagnol, strategist at Credit Suisse.

Higher bond yields can make gold less attractive because the metal carries no yield. Higher bond yields can also make for a stronger dollar, which is negative for commodities priced in the currency because it makes those goods more expensive for customers holding other currencies.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in May said that policy makers could move as early as the “next few meetings” to begin paring back the monthly bond purchases at the heart of the Fed’s quantitative-easing strategy. U.S. Treasury yields have risen substantially in the weeks since those comments, sowing turmoil across asset classes as investors grappled with the prospect of a cut in the central-bank-provided liquidity credited with helping lift gold, equities and other assets in recent years.

Most analysts, however, don’t expect the Fed to announce any tapering of its bond-buying program when the policy-setting FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Bernanke will hold a news conference after the conclusion of the meeting. Read: Bernanke will try to herd wild markets at meeting.    

 Some strategists contend worries over tapering are overblown. And a story last week in The Wall Street Journal indicated Bernanke wants to reassure investors that an eventual tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying program won’t be accompanied by any immediate hike in interest rates, which are expected to remain near zero.

Gold prices have suffered from concerns the Fed will scale back stimulus efforts. Gold over the past few years has benefited from fears the Fed’s aggressive stimulus efforts would debase the dollar and boost inflation.

Meanwhile, overall investor flows remain bearish, wrote analysts at Barclays. They noted that outflows from exchange-traded gold products have slowed, but that tactical investors have scaled back gold exposure during the week ended June 11. But data show gross short positions are less than one lot off the record high seen only two weeks ago, they noted, which means scope for another short-covering rally remains elevated.

“The Fed quitting its stimulus programs might be feasible if the economy were truly on a massive recovery and inflation were rising,” said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors, in a note Friday. “However, tame inflation and lower global growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund indicate the world’s central banks won’t pull back anytime soon.”

But T. Rowe Price said it believes the Fed is on track to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases during the summer quarter.

“The labor-market outlook has improved since the program’s inception in September, downside risks in the economic outlook have diminished, and a revival in consumer-credit-card footings is among reasons to have greater confidence in forecasts of a gradually improving growth profile,” T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson said in a report late last week.

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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.marketwatch.com                             

Technical Analysis For Gold, Silver, Crude and Spot Market...

GOLD TECHNICAL REPORT

Pivot: 1365.00
Our preference: LONG positions above 1365 with targets @ 1402 & 1423.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1365 will call for 1354 & 1338.
Comment: a support base at 1365 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Trend: ST Bearish; MT Bearish

Key levels Comment

1445** Intraday resistance
1423** Intraday resistance
1402** Fib retracement (61.8%)
1386.8 Last
1365** Intraday pivot point
1354** Intraday support
1338** Intraday support

US CRUDEOIL TECHNICALS

Pivot: 94.45
Our preference: LONG positions above 94.45 with targets @ 96.4 & 98.1.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 94.45 will call for 93.2 & 91.35.
Comment: supported by a rising trend line.
Trend: ST Range; MT Range

Key levels Comment

99.6** Intraday resistance
98.1** Intraday resistance
96.4*** Intraday resistance
95.28 Last
94.45** Intraday pivot point
93.2** Fib retracement (61.8%)
91.35** Intraday support

EUR/USD TECHNICALS

 

Pivot: 1.3295
Our preference: Long positions above 1.3295 with targets @ 1.339 & 1.343 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3295 look for further downside with 1.326 & 1.3225 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains supported by a rising trend line and is challenging its previous high.

Key levels

1.3520
1.3430
1.3390
1.335 last
1.3295
1.3260
1.3225

GBP/USD TECHNICALS

Pivot: 1.56
Our preference: Long positions above 1.56 with targets @ 1.57 & 1.574 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.56 look for further downside with 1.5565 & 1.552 as targets.
Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and is facing a pull back ahead of further advance.

Key levels

1.582
1.574
1.57
1.5659 last
1.56
1.5565
1.552

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Technical Analysis For Gold, Crude and Spot Market...

  GOLD TECHNICAL REPORT

 

 

 

 

Pivot: 1389.00
Our preference: SHORT positions below 1389 with 1354 & 1338 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1389 will call for a rebound towards 1402 & 1423.
Comment: as long as 1389 is resistance, likely decline to 1354.
Trend: ST Bearish; MT Bearish
Key levels Comment

1423** Intraday resistance
1402** Fib retracement (61.8%)
1389** Intraday pivot point
1378.63 Last
1354** Intraday support
1338** Intraday support
1322*** Intraday support

AUD/USD TECHNICALS

   
 
Pivot: 0.941
Our preference: Long positions above 0.941 with targets @ 0.9535 & 0.962 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.941 look for further downside with 0.936 & 0.932 as targets.
Comment: the pair validated a Falling Wedge pattern calling for a rebound.
Key levels..

 RS
0.9655
0.962 
0.9535
0.9512 last
SP
0.9410
0.9360 
0.9320

USD/JPY TECHNICALS

 

Pivot: 97.3
Our preference: Short positions below 97.3 with targets @ 95.5 & 94.95 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 97.3 look for further upside with 97.75 & 98.55 as targets.
Comment: the pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance.
Key levels
RS
98.55
97.75
97.3
96.92 last
SP
95.5
94.95
94.3

 US CRUDEOIL TECHNICALS

 

Pivot: 90.10
Our Preference: the upside prevails, as long as 90.1 is support.
Alternative Scenario: Below 90.1 eye a drop towards 85.6 and 77.3 in extension.
Comment: sideways trading between 90.1 and 98.1. A break of this range to either side would be considered significant and certainly worth monitoring.
Trend: ST Range; MT Range, we have been neutral since 8 MAY 2013 (95.63).

Key levels Comment

106 Horizontal resistance
100.6 Horizontal resistance
98.1 Horizontal resistance
94.74 Last
90.1 Pivot point
85.6 Fib retracement (38.2%)
77.3 Horizontal support

 

 

 

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.cfb.ae