Gold Market Will Watch Equities, FOMC Meeting

The direction of equity markets and a meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve will be watched by gold market participants next week to see if the yellow metal will finally break above $1,600 an ounce.
April gold futures fell short of that goal, but still ended firmer Friday, settling at $1,592.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising 0.996% on the week.
Most-active May silver fell on the day, settling at $28.948, down 0.335% on the week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 17 see prices up, while two see prices down, and six see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Some gold market watchers said given the metal has held above the $1,554 low from late February, the metal might be trying to build a base here which may strengthen it against attempts to push prices lower. While gold may be trying to build a base, it continues to be vexed in its attempt to break over $1,600 and close above that area. Part of that has to do with the strength in equities, which is drawing investors’ attention, traders said.

The equity markets will likely continue to influence gold, particularly as the Dow Jones Industrial Average notches up its record high – with 10 higher settlements in a row through Thursday. Inevitably the equity markets will pull back, but the question is, how will investors react? Several market analysts said it will take a hefty break in stock values to shake up investors enough to return to gold in a big way and its safe haven allure.

Still, some analyst said with gold holding so close to $1,600 and slowly creeping up to that area, next week could be the week that gold at least moves above there. 
“The market has held well on tests to the downside and certainly feels like (there) is solid support between $1,575 (and) $1,580. Given the current the risk-on environment and relentless push higher in the equity markets, gold has held well and the path of least resistance might well be to the upside,” said Steve Scacalossi, vice president and director, global precious metals, TD Securities.

While a move above $1,600 is possible, other analysts said gold just doesn’t have the firepower to build on the gains beyond that level and that the metal is still mostly range-bound.
“Gold appears to be stabilizing between $1,570/oz and $1,625/oz; a similar range to mid-year 2012. We expect that gold and silver could remain relatively moribund for the next couple of quarters,” said Deutsche Bank analysts.

Adam Hewison, president, INO.com, said although gold has been quiet, don’t take your eye off it.
"One lesson I learned a long time ago is you don't short quiet markets. With that thought in mind, I think gold is going to continue to build a base and gather strength to move higher later this year when inflation kicks in," he said.

Talk about inflation increased on Friday after the February consumer price index data came in higher than expected. The overall figure was up 0.7% in February, the highest since June 2009. The main figure was led by a surge in gasoline prices, up 9.1%. The core number, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, rose 0.2%.  Even with the jump in February data, so far the data over the past 12 months increased 2%, which is within the Federal Reserve’s inflation target.

The main planned news event for next week is the Fed’s March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, set for Wednesday. This meeting will feature a press conference from Chairman Ben Bernanke and market participants will look for more forward guidance on Fed policy, particularly after stronger-than-expected housing and jobs data.

“They should give more direction on the economy and QE3 and whether that will end sooner rather than later, and whether they are going to support the recovery in another way,” said Robin Bhar, metals analyst with Societe Generale.
The bank is not expecting any major new changes from the central bank, Bhar said.

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China May Limit Gold to 2% of Foreign Reserves,

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China is likely to limit its gold holdings to 2 percent of its total foreign exchange reserves, said Yi Gang, a deputy Chinese central bank governor.

The People’s Bank of China last made known changes to its gold reserves in 2009, announcing that it held 1,054 metric tons. The bank hasn’t made any revisions since then. That’s about 1.8 percent of its total reserves, according to data from the World Gold Council.

“If the Chinese government were to buy too much gold, gold prices would surge, a scenario that will hurt Chinese consumers,” Yi said today in a press briefing in Beijing. “We can only invest about 1-2 percent of the foreign exchange reserves into gold because the market is too small.”
The nation’s reserves, which have surged more than 700 percent since 2004, surpassed the value of all official bullion holdings in January 2004 and rose to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gold has fallen about 4.7 percent this year as the U.S. stocks extended a record rally amid speculation that the FederalReserve may rein in stimulus as the recovery gains traction, curbing demand for safe-haven assets.

China was expected to displace India as the biggest gold consumer last year, according to forecast in November from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Chinese investors sought to protect their wealth by buying gold, after government measures to curb real estate prices and as China’s stock market has fallen in the past decade even though nominal gross domestic product rose fourfold.

Foreign Reserves

About two-thirds of China’s foreign reserves are dollar- denominated and another quarter is in euros, according to Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale SA. China is now encouraging companies and residents to keep more foreign currency in a strategy known as “hiding foreign currencies among people,” meaning that the government’s foreign reserves may “gradually fall,” Yang said.

Gold capped a 12th annual advance in 2012 and rose to a record of $1,921.15 an ounce in 2011. Gold for immediate delivery were little changed today at $1,591.95 at 6:29 p.m. Beijing time.
“We will always keep gold in mind as an option in reserve assets and investments,” Yi said. “We are able to import 500-600 tons a year, or more, but we will also take into consideration a stable gold market.”

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Gold Sharply Higher on Bargain Hunting, Short Covering, and Some Fresh Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices are trading sharply higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. dealings Tuesday. Heavy short covering, bargain hunting and even some fresh safe-haven demand are featured. The near-term technical posture in gold has also improved a bit Tuesday.

April Comex gold last traded up $18.00 at $1,596.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $14.90 at $1,597.25.  May Comex silver last traded up $0.452 at $29.31 an ounce.

The stronger U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury prices Tuesday morning, along with weaker U.S. stock indexes, suggest investor risk appetite has pulled back a bit so far on the day. The solid jump in gold prices early Tuesday does hint that the “risk-off” day in the market place has attracted some fresh safe-haven investor demand for the yellow metal.

In overnight news, Spanish and Italian bond yields held steady following successful government debt auctions in both countries Tuesday. However, the Italian bond auction did see the government’s borrowing costs rise to a three-month high, reports said. The auctions came after the Fitch ratings agency last Friday downgraded Italy’s credit rating. Another Italian bond auction is slated for Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar hit a 3.5-year high against the Japanese yen overnight amid reports the Bank of Japan will continue on its aggressive monetary policy easing path. Asian stock markets were pressured again Tuesday following the recent spate of Chinese economic data that hints at slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer Tuesday morning and hovering near a seven-month high scored last Friday. The U.S. dollar bulls have solid technical strength to suggest the dollar index can continue to trend higher in the near term. That continues to be a bearish underlying factor for gold and silver. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady Tuesday. The crude oil bears still have the near-term technical advantage, and that’s also a negative for gold and silver prices.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Manpower quarterly U.S. employment survey, the NFIB small business optimism index, and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,582.50 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,579.00.

Technically, April gold futures prices on Tuesday have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range of the past two weeks. The bulls on Tuesday did gain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum even though the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $1,554.30. First resistance is seen at $1,600.00 and then at $1,610.00. First support is seen at $1,585.80 and then at the overnight low of $1,578.80.

May silver futures hit a fresh two-week high in early trading Tuesday. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are regaining a bit of upside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $27.925. First resistance is seen at $29.495 and then at $29.75. Next support is seen at $29.00 and then at the overnight low of $28.87.

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GOLD OUTLOOK: Watch Retail Sales Data, Technical Chart Levels For Gold Next Week

After a much stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, market analysts said they will keep an eye out for further proof of economic strength in the U.S., with the February retail sales seen as a harbinger. Market watchers have been looking for signs so see whether the higher taxes in the U.S. have pinched consumers’ spending habits.


Additionally, participants are keeping an eye on the $1,550 to $1,560s an ounce area for Comex April gold futures after the market held support in this region. April gold futures ended on firmer Friday, settling at $1,576.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising 0.293%, on the week. Most-active May silver ended higher on the day, settling at $28.948, up 1.61% on the week.

 In the  News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, six see prices up, while nine see prices down, and 10 see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Gold initially fell after a much stronger-than-expected U.S. unemployment report for February. According to the Labor Department, 236,000 jobs were created last month and the unemployment rate fell two percentage points to 7.7%, a five year low.

Several analysts said that the data suggest the initial worries about tax hikes and spending cuts that went into effect in January might not have scared off employers. Also, others pointed out the increase in construction jobs matches the strength in housing data, which has also come in stronger than expected.

Gold found support just above last month’s low of $1,554 and rebounded when stocks sold off following a rise in wholesale inventories but held much of the session just above unchanged.
Rich DeFalco of 76 Partners said the jobs figure was a game-changer for him and his view on gold. “If you had asked me yesterday, I would have said up. Today, I’m totally bearish. There are too many things working against it. That unemployment number was shocking,” he said.
He said with U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rising on the economic news, some of the market events that have been supportive for gold aren’t anymore. “It’s the opposite of the last three to four years,” he said.

After strong employment and jobs data, market watchers said next week the critical report will be retail sales as that will give a sense of how Americans are spending – or not – money in the face of higher taxes and gasoline prices. MarketWatch calls for a rise of 0.4% in retail sales.
DeFalco isn’t so sure, especially with higher gas prices. “With gas prices near $4 a gallon, it cuts into people’s disposable income…  People don’t have as much to spend on entertainment. (Winston) Churchill said ‘we drink in victory and we drink in defeat’ but we don’t drink as much when gas is $4 a gallon,” he said.

Gold analysts said they’re going to keep an eye on Asian buying, which traditionally has been a strong support for gold. Volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are strong, although premiums have fallen. UBS said the fall in premiums may be the result of easing of some supply bottlenecks, rather than reduced demand.

“Should volumes remain strong in the days and weeks ahead, this would mean that this year China is forgoing the historical pattern of a slowdown in gold activity after the Lunar New Year. March is typically a strong month in terms of gold trading on the SGE,” UBS said.
Analysts said they’ll also watch the resumption of Indian wedding season in April to see what the appetite for gold is after recent strength in the rupee.
Frank Lesh, futures broker at FuturePath Trading, said it’s possible that gold could continue to hold in this range as it mulls its next direction.

“Gold has spent the past week in consolidation, unable to penetrate resistance of $1,590, but able to hold above the low of $1,554 from two weeks ago. The technical picture is still negative, but at least the liquidation pressure has subsided, for now. Dollar strength and the perception that QE (quantitative easing) could end sooner - due to the improving economic picture - rather than later remain limiting factors for gold. It was investment demand that took this market to contract highs and I continue to wonder what catalyst will bring that demand back. I expect a sideways market and further consolidation for next week,” he said.

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North Korea threatens nuclear strike, U.N. expands sanctions

North Korea threatens nuclear strike

North Korea threatened the United States on Thursday with a preemptive nuclear strike, raising the level of rhetoric just before the U.N. Security Council approved new sanctions against the reclusive country.

The White House said North Korea's threats would only lead to Pyongyang's further international isolation and declared that the United States was "fully capable" of defending against any North Korean missile attack.

China's U.N. Ambassador Li Baodong said Beijing wanted to see "full implementation" of the new U.N. Security Council resolution that tightens financial restrictions on Pyongyang and cracks down on its attempts to ship and receive banned cargo.

North Korea has accused the United States of using military drills in South Korea as a launch pad for a nuclear war and has scrapped the armistice with Washington that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.

A North Korean general said on Tuesday that Pyongyang was scrapping the armistice. But the two sides remain technically at war as the civil war did not end with a treaty.

North Korea threatens the United States and its "puppet," South Korea, on an almost daily basis.
"Since the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to preemptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest," the North's foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.
North Korea conducted a third nuclear test on February 12, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, and declared it had achieved progress in securing a functioning atomic arsenal. It is widely believed that the North does not have the capacity for a nuclear strike against the mainland of the United States.
With tensions high on the Korean peninsula, the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to expand its sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were agreed after three weeks of negotiations between the United States and China, which has a history of resisting tough measures against its ally and neighbor.

The resolution specifies some luxury items North Korea's elite is not allowed to import, such as yachts, racing cars, luxury automobiles and certain types of jewelry. This is intended to close a loophole that had allowed countries to decide for themselves what constitutes a luxury good.
"These sanctions will bite and bite hard," said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice.
The export of luxury goods to North Korea has been prohibited since 2006, though diplomats and analysts said the enforcement of U.N. sanctions has been uneven.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, welcomed the council's move, saying in a statement that the resolution "sent an unequivocal message to (North Korea) that the international community will not tolerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons."
The success of the new measures, council diplomats said, will depend to a large extent on the willingness of China to enforce them more strictly than it has in the past.

Pyongyang was hit with U.N. sanctions in retaliation for its 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests. Those measures were subsequently tightened and expanded after several rocket launches by the North.
In addition to the luxury goods ban, there is an arms embargo on North Korea, and it is forbidden from trading in nuclear and missile technology.

George Lopez, a professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and a former member of the U.N. panel that monitors North Korea sanctions compliance, said the new measures should have a real impact on North Korea's movement of money and constrain access to equipment for its nuclear and missile programs.

"Now, we may yet see another launch or a bomb test, but over the medium term this resolution will degrade DPRK capabilities to grow its program," Lopez said, using the acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

THREATS AND WAR GAMES

North Korea's threats were the latest in an escalating war of words by both sides across the armed Korean border this week.
The North's unnamed foreign ministry spokesman said it would be entitled to take military action as of March 11 when U.S.-South Korea military drills move into a full-scale phase.
"North Korea will achieve nothing by continued threats and provocations. These will only further isolate the country and its people and undermine international efforts to promote peace and stability in northeast Asia," Rice told reporters.

President Barack Obama's administration said it had reassured South Korea and Japan "at the highest levels" of its commitment to deterrence, through the U.S. nuclear umbrella and missile defense, in the face of the new threats.

Glyn Davies, the State Department's point man for North Korea, also said in testimony prepared for a Senate hearing that Washington will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state.
Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin called for restraint and an end to the threats. "Let's keep our minds cool and keep focused on the need for the only possible rational course of action, and that is returning to six-party talks," he said.

North Korea, which held a mass military rally in Pyongyang on Thursday in support of its recent threats, has protested against the U.N. censures of its rocket launches. It says they are part of a peaceful space program and that the criticism is an exercise of double standards by the United States.
The North's shrill rhetoric, however, rarely goes beyond just that. Its last armed aggression against the South in 2010 came unannounced, bombing a South Korean island and killing two civilians. It was also accused of sinking a South Korean navy ship earlier in the year, killing 46 sailors.
North Korea was conducting a series of military drills and getting ready for state-wide war practice of an unusual scale, South Korea's defense ministry said earlier.

South Korea and the United States, which are conducting annual military drills until the end of April, are watching the North's activities for signs that they might turn from an exercise to an actual attack, said South Korea's defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok.

Kim declined to confirm news reports that the North has imposed no-fly zones off its coasts in a possible move to fire missiles, but he said any flight ban limited to near the coast would not be for weapons with meaningful ranges.

South Korea's military said in a rare warning on Wednesday that it would strike back at the North and target its leadership if Pyongyang launched an attack.

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Gold tilts up, aims to extend rise to a third day

Gold futures tilted higher Wednesday,

 aiming to extend their rise to a third straight session, as investors weighed the metal’s safe-haven appeal against a backdrop of better-than-expected U.S. private-sector employment data and a drop in factory orders.

The market also garnered support ahead of Thursday’s decisions on monetary policy by the European Central Bank and Bank of England and Friday’s official U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

Gold for delivery in April GCJ3 +0.23% traded at $1.578.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $3.70, or 0.2%. It stuck to a range between $1,566.40 and $1,584.30.

Prices tallied a modest gain of $2.60 over the past two trading sessions.

May silver SIK3 +0.98%  also rose 29 cents, or 1%, to $28.90 an ounce.

The massive quantitative-easing policies of the U.S. “look to be spreading around the world (think England, Japan), which should typically propel gold prices,” said Jason Rotman, president of Lido Isle Advisors in Newport Beach, Calif.

“However, with strong U.S. economic data recently hitting the wires, including [Wednesday’s] ADP jobs numbers, we also see a move away from safety (gold, bonds) and into risk-based assets such as equities,” he said. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.18%  closed at an all-time high on Tuesday. See: U.S. stock rally lifts Dow to record high.

Data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. Wednesday showed that U.S. private-sector jobs rose by 198,000 in February, more than economists expected. See: Private-sector jobs growth beats expectations.

 

Factory orders in January, meanwhile, fell 2%, though economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected orders to decline by 2.2%. See: U.S. factory orders drop 2.0% in January.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which was set for release at 2 p.m. Eastern — after the Comex session ends — is expected to show the economy limped along in early 2013. 

But for now, the gold market is looking forward to the Bank of England meeting, “and perhaps anticipating more stimulus, which would typically be bullish for gold prices,” said Rotman. 

Stimulus is typically tied to inflation and gold is seen as a hedge against inflation. 

On the downside for gold prices Wednesday, the dollar edged higher against many of its rivals.  The ICE dollar index DXY +0.49% , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose to 82.390 from 82.078 in late North American trading on Tuesday. Dollar strength weighs on dollar-denominated commodities such as gold since it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies.

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STOCKS TRADE LEVEL

05/03/2013

 

Cameron International Corporation  (Public, NYSE:CAM) 

Buy@ 60, Stop below@59, Target@64

Nabors Industries Ltd.  (Public, NYSE:NBR) 

Buy@15, Stop below@13.50, Target@19

Altria Group Inc  (Public, NYSE:MO)

Buy@33.80, Stop below@33, Target@35.50

Apollo Group Inc  (Public, NASDAQ:APOL) 

Buy@16, Stop below@14, Target @Open

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Gold Survey: Split Views On Gold Price Direction Seen In Gold Survey

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There is no clear majority on the direction of gold prices for next week, as survey participants in the weekly World News Gold Survey differ in their view of where the yellow metal’s price might travel.

In the World News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 29 responded this week. Of those 29 participants, 13 see prices up, while eight see prices down, and eight see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see higher prices said gold could be forming a potential bottom around the $1,550s, which if it holds, could portend higher prices. Others cited physical buying and the continued underlying support of ultra-loose central bank monetary as supportive for prices. Ideas that the gold market has reached a good value area have others suggesting a price rebound.

“With bullish sentiment reaching historically low levels … futures hitting multi-month lows (and) mandatory government spending cuts activated, I would expect bargain hunters to start searching for a bottom and a sharp recovery to develop into the market,” said Phil Streible, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.

Participants who see weaker prices cite the market’s inability to hold over $1,600 an ounce and the bearish short-term technical chart picture for gold.

Those who are neutral or see prices trading sideways said they want to watch to see how the market develops as it trades under $1,600, especially as sentiment in the market remains negative and equities grab the headlines and investor interest.

“Technically gold remains in the negative mode; however, the $1,550 level is the beginning, we believe, of a base-building process. For this coming week we expect to see more two-way action and broad trading range,” said Adam Hewison,

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