Gold drops as traders await For FOMC...

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Gold futures fell Monday, with analysts anticipating choppy price action as traders position themselves ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week that will be closely watched for clues to the central bank’s next monetary-policy step.

Gold for August delivery GCQ3 -0.28% fell $5.90, or 0.4%, to $1,381.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Particular focus will be on the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting, considering the recent rise in government bond yields. We think risks for gold remain to the downside as central banks are unlikely to announce more easing,” said Valérie Plagnol, strategist at Credit Suisse.

Higher bond yields can make gold less attractive because the metal carries no yield. Higher bond yields can also make for a stronger dollar, which is negative for commodities priced in the currency because it makes those goods more expensive for customers holding other currencies.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in May said that policy makers could move as early as the “next few meetings” to begin paring back the monthly bond purchases at the heart of the Fed’s quantitative-easing strategy. U.S. Treasury yields have risen substantially in the weeks since those comments, sowing turmoil across asset classes as investors grappled with the prospect of a cut in the central-bank-provided liquidity credited with helping lift gold, equities and other assets in recent years.

Most analysts, however, don’t expect the Fed to announce any tapering of its bond-buying program when the policy-setting FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Bernanke will hold a news conference after the conclusion of the meeting. Read: Bernanke will try to herd wild markets at meeting.    

 Some strategists contend worries over tapering are overblown. And a story last week in The Wall Street Journal indicated Bernanke wants to reassure investors that an eventual tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying program won’t be accompanied by any immediate hike in interest rates, which are expected to remain near zero.

Gold prices have suffered from concerns the Fed will scale back stimulus efforts. Gold over the past few years has benefited from fears the Fed’s aggressive stimulus efforts would debase the dollar and boost inflation.

Meanwhile, overall investor flows remain bearish, wrote analysts at Barclays. They noted that outflows from exchange-traded gold products have slowed, but that tactical investors have scaled back gold exposure during the week ended June 11. But data show gross short positions are less than one lot off the record high seen only two weeks ago, they noted, which means scope for another short-covering rally remains elevated.

“The Fed quitting its stimulus programs might be feasible if the economy were truly on a massive recovery and inflation were rising,” said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors, in a note Friday. “However, tame inflation and lower global growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund indicate the world’s central banks won’t pull back anytime soon.”

But T. Rowe Price said it believes the Fed is on track to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases during the summer quarter.

“The labor-market outlook has improved since the program’s inception in September, downside risks in the economic outlook have diminished, and a revival in consumer-credit-card footings is among reasons to have greater confidence in forecasts of a gradually improving growth profile,” T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson said in a report late last week.

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News Source: www.marketwatch.com                             

Gold futures edge higher as focus remains on Fed outlook ...

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Gold futures edged higher during European morning trade on Monday, as investors considered the outlook for Federal Reserve policy while focus remained squarely on the U.S. economy. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,655.15 a troy ounce during European morning trade, up 0.4% on the day.

Prices rose by as much as 0.8% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD1,662.55 a troy ounce. Gold futures fell to USD1,626.05 a troy ounce on January 4, the lowest level since August 21.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, the low from January 4 and resistance at USD1,690.55, January 3’s high.

Gold futures tumbled to a four-month low in the previous session after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting indicated that the central bank could end its bond-buying program earlier than expected.

According to the minutes, several Fed officials thought the central bank would be able to slow or stop its quantitative easing program well before December 2013.

Moves in the gold price over the past year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would pump more money into the financial system.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 155,000 jobs in December, easing from an increase of 161,000 in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%.

The Fed’s December minutes said monetary policy will remain accommodative “at least as long” as the jobless rate remains above 6.5%.

Meanwhile, focus remained on how U.S. lawmakers will deal with the upcoming debt ceiling debate. 

U.S. lawmakers passed a last-minute bill to avoid the fiscal cliff last week, a series of looming tax increases and spending cuts that could have pushed the U.S. economy back into a recession.

But investors remained jittery over the longer term fiscal outlook, with negotiations on raising the U.S. debt ceiling still to come in February.

A stronger U.S. dollar limited any significant gains. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.2% to trade at 80.77.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery added 0.65% to trade at USD30.14 a troy ounce, while copper for March delivery shed 0.75% to trade at USD3.666 a pound.

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News Source: www.cnbc.com

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

  Pivot: 95.25
Our preference: LONG positions above 95.25 with 96.7 & 97.3 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 95.25 will open the way to 93.75 & 92.4.
Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Trend: ST Range; MT Range
Key levels Comment
98.2** Intraday resistance
97.3** Intraday resistance
96.7** Intraday resistance
96.09 Last
95.25** Intraday pivot point
93.75** Intraday support
92.4** Intraday support


 GOLD ANALYSIS

 

  Pivot: 1406.00
Our preference: SHORT positions below 1406 with targets @ 1374 & 1354.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1406 will call for a rebound towards 1423 & 1445.
Comment: gold prices have broken below the channel support. The 50 moving average is turning down. The downside prevails, as long as 1406 is resistance.
Trend: ST Bearish; MT Bearish
Key levels Comment
1445** Intraday resistance
1423** Intraday resistance
1406** Intraday pivot point
1384.84 Last
1374** Intraday support
1354** Intraday support
1338** Intraday support

EURUSD TECHNICALS



 
 
Pivot: 1.3180.
Our preference: LONG positions above 1.318 with 1.328 & 1.332 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.318 will call for a slide towards 1.314 & 1.31.
Comment: the pair is facing a pull back on its support, the RSI calls for caution.
Trend: ST Ltd Downside; MT Range
Key levels Comment
1.3375** Intraday resistance
1.332** Intraday resistance
1.328*** Intraday resistance
1.3192 Last
1.318*** Intraday pivot point
1.314*** Intraday support
1.31*** Intraday support

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Asad Rasheed
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News Source: www.cfb.ae

 

 

ECB's Draghi was misunderstood on policy plan: Italy minister

FLORENCE - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was "a little misunderstood" on Thursday and is not planning on tightening monetary policy, Italian Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni said on Friday.Saccomanni's comments come after the ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday and said that he did not yet see the need for unconventional financing measures to lift growth."The markets interpreted some messages from the Federal Reserve to be that we are heading towards a phase of monetary tightening, and maybe the failure to reduce rates (by the ECB) was interpreted as a confirmation," Saccomanni said at a business conference in Florence."But I believe that in this case he was a bit misunderstood," said Saccomanni, who worked under Draghi at the Bank of Italy.Saccomanni said Draghi had indicated he was "willing to take more expansive measures".Short-term money market interest rates rose on Thursday after the ECB decision and Draghi's comments.Investors had been pricing in a deposit rate in negative territory, which would effectively charge banks for parking money at the ECB and help kick start lending to businesses and consumers."There is international consensus on the fact that we have yet to exit this crisis," Saccomanni said.Italy, the euro zone's third-biggest economy, is worse off than others. It is mired in its longest post-war recession, which began in mid-2011, and unemployment has hit record levels.Saccomanni said that the Italian government planned to revise, not abolish, the much-hated property tax (IMU) so that it weighed less on people with lower incomes, hopefully by the first half of August.Four-times Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has called for the tax to be scrapped or else his People of Freedom party will pull its support for the right-left coalition government.But Italy has promised to keep its budget deficit below 3 percent of output, and removing the tax as Berlusconi wants would cost an estimated 4 billion euros ($5.29 billion) per year.Funding of the tax reform will come from spending cuts and changes to tax breaks, Saccomanni said.($1 = 0.7564 euros. 

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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.News Source: www.reuters.com

Jobs report today – High Impact Expected

As you may know, today is the most important news announcement of the month, where we’ll hear the monthly jobs report from the United States.

If you’re new to trading, come check this article about how to trade on news www. cfb.ae 

The market is already on edge after the Stock Market and the US Dollar saw a significant drop yesterday. So traders will really be looking for some hope in this announcement.

Analysts are estimating that 167,000 jobs were added in the month of May. If the numbers are disappointing. The sell-off could very likely continue. If the numbers are positive, then we may see yesterday’s movements retraced.

Either way the markets will be extremely volatile from about an hour before the announcement and until the end of the trading week.

For the many of you who are Copytrading – Most of the larger Social Gurus do better when the markets are stable. So let’s hope for some good numbers. The higher risk traders however, do tend to do better when the markets are volatile, so it may be a good day for some short term copies or to adjust your portfolio.

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Asad Rasheed
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News Source:cnnc.com

Gold and Silver Post Dramatic Late Day Price Rebounds To End Higher...

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Comex gold and silver futures prices suddenly surged higher near midday Monday, to reverse early, substantial losses and then ended the U.S. day session higher and near their daily highs. Heavy short covering and bargain hunting were featured during the precious metals’ turnarounds. The key “outside markets” were also in a bullish posture for gold and silver Monday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold on Monday ended a seven-session losing streak, while silver posted technical action that now hints it has put in a near-term market bottom. Comex June gold last traded up $18.70 at $1,383.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $24.80 at $1,385.50.  July Comex silver last traded up $0.313 at $22.67 an ounce.

There was also a report released at midday Monday that could have sparked some safe-haven buying demand for gold and some short covering. Moody’s reportedly said if the U.S. fails to act on its budget problems in 2013, then the ratings agency might downgrade U.S. government debt. However, that news is not at all earth-shaking and it was likely just a coincidence that it was released about the same time gold and silver embarked upon their rallies.

Gold and silver futures got off to another rocky start to begin the trading week. Both markets were under strong pressure in overnight and in early morning U.S. action. One report overnight said investors worldwide have dumped around $22 billion worth of gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the last nearly five months. The big rally in the U.S. and Japanese stock markets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and low inflation expectations worldwide are major bearish weights on the metals and entire raw commodity sector at present.

The Japanese yen’s rebound against the U.S. dollar was featured Monday. Much of the rebound is likely short covering after the yen’s major descent the past several months. Japan’s economy minister said Monday the downside price action in the yen is about completed. There is a Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday that will be closely watched by the market place. However, the BOJ is not expected to make any major policy changes.

Reports from China Monday said Chinese housing prices rose significantly in April, by up 3.7% and up 2.8% in two separate readings. This led to ideas Chinese monetary officials could tighten policy to stem inflationary price pressures. Such would be a bearish development for the raw commodity sector. There is more key Chinese economic data due out later this week.

Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said on CNBC Monday morning that the Federal Reserve is presently debating on when to wind down the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Notions the Fed will “taper” its monthly bond-buying program (QE3) sooner rather than later is another bearish factor for the raw commodity markets, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,354.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,368.75.
Technically, June gold futures closed prices closed nearer the session high Monday and hit a fresh four-week low early on. Prices scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. The gold bears are still in near-term technical control. Prices are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,321.50. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,397.90 and then at $1,400.00. First support is seen at $1,368.00 and then at $1,350.00.

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and scored a big “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. Monday’s price action also produced a bullish selling “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, whereby prices dropped to a 2.5-year low and then the sellers suddenly became exhausted at the lower price levels and then rallied to close nearer the daily high. Monday’s price action, including the bullish exhaustion tail, is a clue that the silver market has put in a near-term bottom. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $23.84 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at Monday’s low of $20.25. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at Monday’s high of $23.24. Next support is seen at $22.50 and then at $22.00.

May N.Y. copper closed up 290 points at 335.00 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for copper Monday as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 339.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 336.45 cents and then at 339.00 cents. First support is seen at 332.50 cents and then at 330.00 cents.

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Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.marketwatch.com