Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Friday, January 3, 2014

Gold Slightly Higher, Aided By Overnight Physical Buying...

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U.S. gold futures are modestly higher early Friday after physical buying continued in overseas activity, traders said. The metal is up for the second straight day to start 2014, after getting a lift Thursday from buying related to rebalancing, softer equities, physical demand and a continuation of short covering that began hours before trade ended in 2013.

As of 8:07 a.m. EST, gold for February delivery was $3.90, or 0.3%, higher to $1,229.10 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver was nearly flat, dipping 0.8 cent to $20.12.

“So far, we’re seeing a bit of interest on the physical front,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA. “When the market Tuesday went (nearly to) $1,180, a lot of physical buying came out of the woodwork. We continue to see some interest.

“And, of course, the market is more short than long. So every time we hit an important resistance point, some stop buying comes into the market.”

Another trader suggested some nervous shorts might be starting to cover positions in anticipation of buying ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations that start at the end of the month.
Gold hit a two-week high on Thursday, then extend it Friday. The February contract peaked at $1,238.30 an ounce, its most muscular level since Dec. 18.

Janet Mirasola, managing director of metals for Wells Fargo, said gold is bucking a trend in which many markets area were softer overnight – including Asian equities and base metals. Gold is showing “a glimmer of its old ‘safe haven’ self,” she said.

Technically, February gold has moved back above the 20-day average of $1,123.40 and put in some distance above the 10-day average of $1,208.50. The 50-day average lies at $1,261.80.

A key event Friday, Mirasola said, will be speaking appearances by a number of Federal Reserve officials at American Economic Association event in Philadelphia. The lineup will include Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser at 12:45 p.m., Fed governor Jeremy Stein at 1:15 and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 2:30. More Fed speakers are scheduled for over the weekend.

Otherwise, the only U.S. economic data on the calendar Friday are motor-vehicle sales.

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News Source: www.bloomberg.com

Sunday, June 23, 2013

US GDP; good for economy, bad for investors...

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U.S. economy is anticipating yet another hectic week, with the Federal Reserve stimulus coming to an end depending on the performance of the economy. Next week, the third reading for U.S. GDP will be released among other anticipated figures to put some light on when will the Fed cut bond purchases.

Third and final reading for third quarter GDP is estimated at 2.4%, and to remain unchanged from the prior reading, which will probably give investors a clearer signal over the health of the U.S. economy.


Any economic data reports, and in particular the GDP update this week will be leapt upon for signs that the US economy is improving ,the trigger for Ben Bernanke , chairman of the US Federal Reserve, to start scaling back the central bank`s easy money policy. 

Analysts believe the Federal Reserve might start to scale back the record $85 billion in monthly purchases in September and reducing at as much as $20 billion. Note that Bernanke said last week that the Fed will start reducing stimulus before the end of 2013, and its end will be somewhere around mid-2014.

As for the Income report for May, it is expected to show some improvement in income and spending levels, as Personal Income levels are expected to grow 0.2% in May, after it stalled the previous month, whereas personal spending is also estimated to rise 0.3%, compared to the prior drop by 0.2%, the sharpest amount in almost a year, mostly because of decreasing car sales and demand for energy.
Other data this week includes May’s durable goods, the housing sector, and the weekly update for jobless claims. 

Stock Markets (Heading)
U.S. stocks fell for the week, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping more than 5 percent from a record high, as equity markets extended declines on Friday day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may phase out stimulus.

Stock Markets await another volatile week as traders will closely watch important data in the U.S. and overseas markets. Stock markets will also hurt by another surge in bond yields U.S. government bond yields also remain at elevated levels. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.5% Friday, the highest since August 2011.

Investors have been bailing out of bonds and sending yields higher over the past month amid speculation that the Fed will soon taper its monthly bond purchases, known as quantitative easing. Elsewhere, China will also keep investors on edge. The Chinese central bank could start becoming more aggressive in its efforts to inject liquidity into the banking system, experts say, after inter-bank lending rates have soared.


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 Here are some useful links that you can follow:
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.
News Source: www.reuters.com      

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Fed Exit Strategy Will Be ''Treacherous''...

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As the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting, economist Nouriel Roubini and political scientist Ian Bremmer warned that the Fed's monetary easing exit strategy would be "treacherous" and would lead to financial instability.

"We know how the movie ended, and we may be poised for a sequel. The weak real economy and job market, together with high debt ratios, suggest the need to exit monetary stimulus slowly. But a slow exit risks creating a credit and asset bubble as large as the previous one, if not larger," they wrote in a report published in Institutional Investor magazine.

Roubini, better known as "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic economic forecasts, and Bremmer, president of global political risk research and consulting Eurasia Group warned that the real underlying risks to the global economy were being ignored.

In the report, they warned that market complacency among politicians, investors and central banks was leading us into a "New Abnormal" era - a "period in which every market assumption must be questioned and the wise investor is prepared to be surprised."

"Unfortunately, the sense of crisis has lifted on all fronts, encouraging some to see in the changed landscape a sustainable 'new normal', a period of painfully slow but predictable economic progress," they said.

"Some believe that U.S. lawmakers can now afford to postpone tough choices, the Europeans will muddle through, China can smoothly rebalance its economy, and fires in the Middle East can simply burn themselves out. These are dangerous illusions," the authors said.

"The convulsions of the past five years arose from structural faults – financial, economic and political – that have not been fully resolved," despite the exuberance in financial markets.
There were more reasons why political and market turbulence had "plenty of room to run," the authors said, telling investors to expect more political and policy gridlock, market volatility and even another crisis as governments' monetary policies reached a crossroad.

Global markets had focused on the wrong risk triggers for the last five years, Bremmer told CNBC late on Monday."For the last five years our focus has been on the financial crisis - on the fiscal cliff, will the euro zone break down, will Japan crumble under its debt? And the reality is that those were not serious structural risks, those were much more stable places," Bremmer told CNBC's "Closing Bell."

"We have to start paying more attention to the real risks because they're growing every day, both the macro pieces that are truly in play and we've not seen anything like this in generations with global powers having very different perspectives on the market place and politics," he added.
The authors added that there were more, new worries posed by emerging markets as growth slowed there and governments were slow to implement reforms.

Bremmer warned that the relationship between China and the U.S. would be key.
"Whether we're talking about cyber, whether we're talking about market access, trade secrets of trade craft, the relationship between China and the U.S. is very difficult to manage and it's not been given priority by either the Chinese or U.S.," he said.

"A pragmatic, mutually profitable geopolitical partnership forged by the U.S. and China is our best hope if the New Abnormal is to end with a smooth landing," Bremmer and Roubini concluded.

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Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.
News Source: www.cnbc.com                           

Monday, June 17, 2013

Gold drops as traders await For FOMC...

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Gold futures fell Monday, with analysts anticipating choppy price action as traders position themselves ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week that will be closely watched for clues to the central bank’s next monetary-policy step.

Gold for August delivery GCQ3 -0.28% fell $5.90, or 0.4%, to $1,381.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Particular focus will be on the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting, considering the recent rise in government bond yields. We think risks for gold remain to the downside as central banks are unlikely to announce more easing,” said Valérie Plagnol, strategist at Credit Suisse.

Higher bond yields can make gold less attractive because the metal carries no yield. Higher bond yields can also make for a stronger dollar, which is negative for commodities priced in the currency because it makes those goods more expensive for customers holding other currencies.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in May said that policy makers could move as early as the “next few meetings” to begin paring back the monthly bond purchases at the heart of the Fed’s quantitative-easing strategy. U.S. Treasury yields have risen substantially in the weeks since those comments, sowing turmoil across asset classes as investors grappled with the prospect of a cut in the central-bank-provided liquidity credited with helping lift gold, equities and other assets in recent years.

Most analysts, however, don’t expect the Fed to announce any tapering of its bond-buying program when the policy-setting FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Bernanke will hold a news conference after the conclusion of the meeting. Read: Bernanke will try to herd wild markets at meeting.    

 Some strategists contend worries over tapering are overblown. And a story last week in The Wall Street Journal indicated Bernanke wants to reassure investors that an eventual tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying program won’t be accompanied by any immediate hike in interest rates, which are expected to remain near zero.

Gold prices have suffered from concerns the Fed will scale back stimulus efforts. Gold over the past few years has benefited from fears the Fed’s aggressive stimulus efforts would debase the dollar and boost inflation.

Meanwhile, overall investor flows remain bearish, wrote analysts at Barclays. They noted that outflows from exchange-traded gold products have slowed, but that tactical investors have scaled back gold exposure during the week ended June 11. But data show gross short positions are less than one lot off the record high seen only two weeks ago, they noted, which means scope for another short-covering rally remains elevated.

“The Fed quitting its stimulus programs might be feasible if the economy were truly on a massive recovery and inflation were rising,” said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors, in a note Friday. “However, tame inflation and lower global growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund indicate the world’s central banks won’t pull back anytime soon.”
But T. Rowe Price said it believes the Fed is on track to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases during the summer quarter.

“The labor-market outlook has improved since the program’s inception in September, downside risks in the economic outlook have diminished, and a revival in consumer-credit-card footings is among reasons to have greater confidence in forecasts of a gradually improving growth profile,” T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson said in a report late last week.

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Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.
 Here are some useful links that you can follow:
Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.
News Source: www.marketwatch.com                             

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Gold futures edge higher as focus remains on Fed outlook ...

Gold futures edged higher during European morning trade on Monday, as investors considered the outlook for Federal Reserve policy while focus remained squarely on the U.S. economy. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,655.15 a troy ounce during European morning trade, up 0.4% on the day.

Prices rose by as much as 0.8% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD1,662.55 a troy ounce. Gold futures fell to USD1,626.05 a troy ounce on January 4, the lowest level since August 21.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, the low from January 4 and resistance at USD1,690.55, January 3’s high.
Gold futures tumbled to a four-month low in the previous session after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting indicated that the central bank could end its bond-buying program earlier than expected.

According to the minutes, several Fed officials thought the central bank would be able to slow or stop its quantitative easing program well before December 2013.

Moves in the gold price over the past year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would pump more money into the financial system.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 155,000 jobs in December, easing from an increase of 161,000 in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%.

The Fed’s December minutes said monetary policy will remain accommodative “at least as long” as the jobless rate remains above 6.5%.

Meanwhile, focus remained on how U.S. lawmakers will deal with the upcoming debt ceiling debate. 

U.S. lawmakers passed a last-minute bill to avoid the fiscal cliff last week, a series of looming tax increases and spending cuts that could have pushed the U.S. economy back into a recession.

But investors remained jittery over the longer term fiscal outlook, with negotiations on raising the U.S. debt ceiling still to come in February.

A stronger U.S. dollar limited any significant gains. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.2% to trade at 80.77.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery added 0.65% to trade at USD30.14 a troy ounce, while copper for March delivery shed 0.75% to trade at USD3.666 a pound.

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Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.


News Source: www.cnbc.com

Monday, June 10, 2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude Oil (Jul 13) intraday: the bias remains bullish. 
  Pivot: 95.25
Our preference: LONG positions above 95.25 with 96.7 & 97.3 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 95.25 will open the way to 93.75 & 92.4.
Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Trend: ST Range; MT Range
Key levels Comment
98.2** Intraday resistance
97.3** Intraday resistance
96.7** Intraday resistance
96.09 Last
95.25** Intraday pivot point
93.75** Intraday support
92.4** Intraday support


 GOLD ANALYSIS

GOLD (Spot) intraday: under pressure. 
  Pivot: 1406.00
Our preference: SHORT positions below 1406 with targets @ 1374 & 1354.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1406 will call for a rebound towards 1423 & 1445.
Comment: gold prices have broken below the channel support. The 50 moving average is turning down. The downside prevails, as long as 1406 is resistance.
Trend: ST Bearish; MT Bearish
Key levels Comment
1445** Intraday resistance
1423** Intraday resistance
1406** Intraday pivot point
1384.84 Last
1374** Intraday support
1354** Intraday support
1338** Intraday support


EURUSD TECHNICALS



EUR/USD intraday: the bias remains bullish. 
 
Pivot: 1.3180.
Our preference: LONG positions above 1.318 with 1.328 & 1.332 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.318 will call for a slide towards 1.314 & 1.31.
Comment: the pair is facing a pull back on its support, the RSI calls for caution.
Trend: ST Ltd Downside; MT Range
Key levels Comment
1.3375** Intraday resistance
1.332** Intraday resistance
1.328*** Intraday resistance
1.3192 Last
1.318*** Intraday pivot point
1.314*** Intraday support
1.31*** Intraday support


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Asad Rasheed
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Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.
News Source: www.cfb.ae
 
 

Friday, June 7, 2013

ECB's Draghi was misunderstood on policy plan: Italy minister

FLORENCE - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was "a little misunderstood" on Thursday and is not planning on tightening monetary policy, Italian Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni said on Friday.Saccomanni's comments come after the ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday and said that he did not yet see the need for unconventional financing measures to lift growth."The markets interpreted some messages from the Federal Reserve to be that we are heading towards a phase of monetary tightening, and maybe the failure to reduce rates (by the ECB) was interpreted as a confirmation," Saccomanni said at a business conference in Florence."But I believe that in this case he was a bit misunderstood," said Saccomanni, who worked under Draghi at the Bank of Italy.Saccomanni said Draghi had indicated he was "willing to take more expansive measures".Short-term money market interest rates rose on Thursday after the ECB decision and Draghi's comments.Investors had been pricing in a deposit rate in negative territory, which would effectively charge banks for parking money at the ECB and help kick start lending to businesses and consumers."There is international consensus on the fact that we have yet to exit this crisis," Saccomanni said.Italy, the euro zone's third-biggest economy, is worse off than others. It is mired in its longest post-war recession, which began in mid-2011, and unemployment has hit record levels.Saccomanni said that the Italian government planned to revise, not abolish, the much-hated property tax (IMU) so that it weighed less on people with lower incomes, hopefully by the first half of August.Four-times Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has called for the tax to be scrapped or else his People of Freedom party will pull its support for the right-left coalition government.But Italy has promised to keep its budget deficit below 3 percent of output, and removing the tax as Berlusconi wants would cost an estimated 4 billion euros ($5.29 billion) per year.Funding of the tax reform will come from spending cuts and changes to tax breaks, Saccomanni said.($1 = 0.7564 euros. 

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News Source: www.reuters.com

Jobs report today – High Impact Expected


As you may know, today is the most important news announcement of the month, where we’ll hear the monthly jobs report from the United States.

If you’re new to trading, come check this article about how to trade on news www. cfb.ae 

The market is already on edge after the Stock Market and the US Dollar saw a significant drop yesterday. So traders will really be looking for some hope in this announcement.

Analysts are estimating that 167,000 jobs were added in the month of May. If the numbers are disappointing. The sell-off could very likely continue. If the numbers are positive, then we may see yesterday’s movements retraced.

Either way the markets will be extremely volatile from about an hour before the announcement and until the end of the trading week.

For the many of you who are Copytrading – Most of the larger Social Gurus do better when the markets are stable. So let’s hope for some good numbers. The higher risk traders however, do tend to do better when the markets are volatile, so it may be a good day for some short term copies or to adjust your portfolio.



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Asad Rasheed
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Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source:cnnc.com

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Google Joins Apple To Avoid Taxes With Stateless Income...


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U.S. Senate scrutiny of Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s tax strategies turned the spotlight on a unit with $30 billion in profit since 2009 that’s incorporated in Ireland, controlled by a board in California, and doesn’t pay taxes in either place.

Apple officials acknowledged yesterday at a congressional hearing that the entity -- a key subsidiary in Apple’s offshore tax strategy -- is managed and controlled in the U.S., yet it still isn’t paying U.S. federal income taxes.The shifting of profits by multinational companies is costing the U.S. and Europe at least $100 billion per year in lost tax revenue, according to Kimberly Clausing, an economics professor at Reed University in Portland, Oregon.

“Over the decades, Congress and governments around the world have allowed a system to develop which allows multinational companies to earn income tax-free by using contracts to shift the income, on paper, to companies in low-and zero-tax countries,” said Michael Durst, a retired international tax attorney based in Washington. The result “is eroding public confidence in the fairness of tax systems in the United States and around the world.”
Similar practices by an assortment of companies -- from Google Inc. (GOOG), owner of the world’s most popular Internet search engine, to Forest Laboratories Inc. (FRX), the maker of antidepressant drug Lexapro -- are drawing increased scrutiny from regulators in the U.S. and around the world, particularly as European nations face a backlash against austerity measures.

Tax Avoidance

Corporate tax avoidance is now being targeted on several fronts. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a think tank funded by governments around the world, is scheduled to release an “action plan” in July to deal with tax revenue lost to profit shifting. The plan came in response to a request by the Group of 20 nations.The European Commission also is targeting key rules that enable corporate profit shifting.

In the U.S., President Barack Obama’s Treasury Department in April released a list of global tax loopholes to close, many of which it has targeted unsuccessfully in the past. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found that Apple avoided paying income taxes on $74 billion of profit during the past four years in part by moving patent rights to a web of offshore subsidiaries that pay virtually no income taxes.

Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook yesterday maintained the company had done nothing wrong and said it pays “all the taxes we owe -- every single dollar.” The Cupertino, California-based company is also not alone in moving profits to such offshore units.


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 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.bloomberge.com

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Gold and Silver Post Dramatic Late Day Price Rebounds To End Higher...

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Comex gold and silver futures prices suddenly surged higher near midday Monday, to reverse early, substantial losses and then ended the U.S. day session higher and near their daily highs. Heavy short covering and bargain hunting were featured during the precious metals’ turnarounds. The key “outside markets” were also in a bullish posture for gold and silver Monday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold on Monday ended a seven-session losing streak, while silver posted technical action that now hints it has put in a near-term market bottom. Comex June gold last traded up $18.70 at $1,383.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $24.80 at $1,385.50.  July Comex silver last traded up $0.313 at $22.67 an ounce.

There was also a report released at midday Monday that could have sparked some safe-haven buying demand for gold and some short covering. Moody’s reportedly said if the U.S. fails to act on its budget problems in 2013, then the ratings agency might downgrade U.S. government debt. However, that news is not at all earth-shaking and it was likely just a coincidence that it was released about the same time gold and silver embarked upon their rallies.

Gold and silver futures got off to another rocky start to begin the trading week. Both markets were under strong pressure in overnight and in early morning U.S. action. One report overnight said investors worldwide have dumped around $22 billion worth of gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the last nearly five months. The big rally in the U.S. and Japanese stock markets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and low inflation expectations worldwide are major bearish weights on the metals and entire raw commodity sector at present.

The Japanese yen’s rebound against the U.S. dollar was featured Monday. Much of the rebound is likely short covering after the yen’s major descent the past several months. Japan’s economy minister said Monday the downside price action in the yen is about completed. There is a Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday that will be closely watched by the market place. However, the BOJ is not expected to make any major policy changes.

Reports from China Monday said Chinese housing prices rose significantly in April, by up 3.7% and up 2.8% in two separate readings. This led to ideas Chinese monetary officials could tighten policy to stem inflationary price pressures. Such would be a bearish development for the raw commodity sector. There is more key Chinese economic data due out later this week.

Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said on CNBC Monday morning that the Federal Reserve is presently debating on when to wind down the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Notions the Fed will “taper” its monthly bond-buying program (QE3) sooner rather than later is another bearish factor for the raw commodity markets, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,354.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,368.75.
Technically, June gold futures closed prices closed nearer the session high Monday and hit a fresh four-week low early on. Prices scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. The gold bears are still in near-term technical control. Prices are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,321.50. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,397.90 and then at $1,400.00. First support is seen at $1,368.00 and then at $1,350.00.

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and scored a big “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. Monday’s price action also produced a bullish selling “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, whereby prices dropped to a 2.5-year low and then the sellers suddenly became exhausted at the lower price levels and then rallied to close nearer the daily high. Monday’s price action, including the bullish exhaustion tail, is a clue that the silver market has put in a near-term bottom. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $23.84 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at Monday’s low of $20.25. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at Monday’s high of $23.24. Next support is seen at $22.50 and then at $22.00.

May N.Y. copper closed up 290 points at 335.00 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for copper Monday as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 339.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 336.45 cents and then at 339.00 cents. First support is seen at 332.50 cents and then at 330.00 cents.


Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.
You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)


Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.marketwatch.com

Monday, May 13, 2013

Is the Fed Prepping Markets for the End of QE?

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If an article in Monday's Wall Street Journal is anything to go by, the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting ready to unwind its massive monetary stimulus program. And that prospect is unlikely to be as alarming for financial markets as feared, analysts tell CNBC.

Fed officials have mapped out a strategy to wind down its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program in careful steps, although the timing of when that will start is still being debated, noted Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath wrote in the WSJ.

Any unwinding of the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) program, which has fueled a rally in equity markets and other risk assets, is generally viewed as negative and any indication of this happening has been highly anticipated in the U.S. since late last week.

"Having spent two New York sessions pricing in a sharp change in Fed stance, it is not obvious that the article was worth the wait," analysts at Westpac said in a note. "The timing of the unwinding of QE remains data-dependent, not a serious prospect until perhaps late U.S. summer at the earliest."
Analysts say that in essence, the Fed appears to be managing market expectations that its quantitative easing program will not last forever.

The Fed has said that it would maintain its key interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent until the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent. It has also committed to monthly purchases of bonds until labor market conditions improve substantially.

Sooner Rather Than Later?


And it is the recent signs of improvement in the jobs market that has renewed talk about a possible end to the quantitative easing. The latest non-farm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy created 165,000 new jobs last month, much more than expected, helping push the unemployment rate down to 7.5 percent. Data last week meanwhile showed jobless claims at their lowest level in almost 5-1/2 years.

"The timing is still a bit uncertain, but our view is that there will be no more QE from the United States after December this year," said Geoff Lewis, global market strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
"They're [Fed officials] not going to raise interest rates they've told us that until unemployment comes down to 6.5 percent, but that could be as soon perhaps as the first half of next year," he added.
Lewis said that the Fed would have no choice but to taper off QE in the face of stronger economic news and that was unlikely to lead to alarm in equity markets that have thrived on the aggressive monetary stimulus.

U.S. stocks hit fresh highs on Friday, while markets in Asia and Europe have also seen stellar gains this year. "That [an easing of QE] would be good for U.S. stocks because it would mean the U.S. economy is doing a lot better," he said.

Martin Lakos, division director, Macquarie Private Wealth told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" that he also remained positive on the outlook for stocks."The central bank is clearly trying to massage markets that QE is not going to be around there forever. I don't think that is a big risk as they [the Fed] are managing expectations," he said. "We remain positive on equities over the next couple of years."


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