Gold Sees Downside Correction From Recent Gains....

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Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly lower Wednesday, on a downside technical correction following gains scored Monday and Tuesday.  February gold was last down $3.90 at $1,257.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.20 at $1258.25. March Comex silver last traded up $0.045 at $20.36 an ounce.

The market place showed little reaction Wednesday to a surprise move late Tuesday by U.S. government lawmakers to reach a bipartisan agreement on a budget deal that should avoid the debacle that occurred just a few months ago, which forced the U.S. government to shut down for two weeks. This one more unstable element taken away from a market place that has already been remarkably void of market-sensitive geopolitical uncertainty for weeks. Safe-haven gold usually benefits from geopolitical uncertainty and the trader anxiety that goes with it. Part of the reason gold has seen rough sailing the past few months is a lack of safe-haven demand.

In overnight news, reports said China’s banks increased their lending in November, which is a signal Chinese monetary officials want to continue to stimulate their economy even though the added liquidity in the financial system could be inflationary.

Traders and investors are looking forward to next week’s meeting (Dec. 17-18) of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Recent upbeat U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last Friday, suggest the Fed might move up its timeline for implementing a tapering of its monthly bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing, including a growing number who think the Fed will announce a tapering at next week’s FOMC meeting. The intense speculation on the precise timing of Fed tapering has done two things to the market place: It has numbed traders and investors to the actual event, which is likely to lessen its significance when it does actually occur. And the markets have already mostly factored into their price structures the Fed tapering, when it does occur.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,260.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,266.25.
Technically, February gold futures prices closed near mid-range Wednesday and saw a corrective pullback from this week’s decent gains. While the gold market bears are in overall technical control, the bulls are making a move as the bears appear to be exhausted. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,210.10. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,267.50 and then at $1,275.00. First support is seen at $1,250.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,237.40.

March silver futures prices closed near mid-range Wednesday and hit a fresh three-week high on mild short covering. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are making a move. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $18.89. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $20.48 and then at $20.60. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $20.21 and then at $20.00.


March copper closed up 265 points at 329.30 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh five-week high. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 336.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 330.00 cents and then at 331.00 cents. First support is seen at 326.85 cents and then at 325.00 cents.

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News Source: www.wsj.com

Gold Ends Narrowly Mixed, as Bears Keeping Tight Grip on selling...

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Gold prices ended the U.S. day session mixed and not far from unchanged Tuesday and did hit another five-month low. Some mild short covering and a corrective bounce were offset by fresh chart-based selling as the session progressed. Traders and investors are awaiting the next data points to help drive market prices. February gold was last down $1.30 at $1,220.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $2.00 at $1221.75. March Comex silver last traded down $0.194 at $19.09 an ounce.

Losses in the gold and silver markets were somewhat limited by the key outside markets being in a bullish daily posture for the precious metals—a lower U.S. dollar index and solidly higher crude oil prices.

This is a big week for economic data, highlighted by the European Central Bank’s monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday and the U.S. jobs report on Friday. However, there are other key reports out this week, including Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve’s beige book and Thursday’s U.S. GDP report. Traders and investors for many weeks have been obsessing about the precise timing of when the Fed will alter its monetary policy and back off from its monthly bond-buying program—called quantitative easing. Monday’s batch of generally upbeat U.S. data fell into the camp that reckons the Fed will act to taper sooner rather than later. This week’s data will provide at least some new insight on the timing of the Fed’s next move. Meantime, the ECB recently eased its monetary policy and the market place is wondering what central bank’s next move will be.

In overnight news, the OECD reported inflation in its 34 member economies fell for a third straight month in October—to 1.3% from 1.5% in September, on an annualized basis. The EU statistics agency said Tuesday the EU’s producer prices fell at the fastest rate in four years in October, at down 0.5% from September and down 1.4% from the previous year. This news is likely to keep the ECB in a very easy money policy mode, as the central bank does not want deflation to set in.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,217.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,229.50.
Technically, February gold futures prices closed near mid-range and hit another five-month low Tuesday. Gold prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,258.20. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,225.80 and then at $1,234.10. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,214.60 and then at $1,200.00.

March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh five-month low Tuesday. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.335 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $18.60. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $19.335 and then at $19.62. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $18.975 and then at $18.60.


March N.Y. copper closed down 200 points at 316.25 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 326.85 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 313.50 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 318.25 cents and then at 320.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 315.80 cents and then at 313.50 cents.

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News Source: www.cnbc.com

Gold outlook: Fed Tapering Fear...

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Gold prices are seeing follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s strong losses and have hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading Friday. Much of the selling in gold and silver is tied to their weakening near-term technical postures and to less risk aversion in the market place this week. December Comex gold was last down $12.60 at $1,318.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $2.70 at $1318.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.244 at $21.895 an ounce.

It was generally quiet in Asian and European markets overnight, except the gold and silver markets. The perceived decreasing odds of U.S. military action against the Syrian regime continue to pressure safe-haven gold. Traders that had made bets the U.S. military would strike Syria and went long gold are at least temporarily licking their wounds and unwinding those positions.

Many traders and investors this week have been looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed will announce a $10 billion or $15 billion reduction in its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The surprise to the markets could be if the Fed either does nothing at this meeting, or is more aggressive in its initial reduction in bond purchases. For the past several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The Japanese Nikkei news service reported overnight that President Obama late next week will name Larry Summers as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index rallied modestly on this report, while gold saw some added selling pressure—on notions Summers as a Fed chairman would be more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy than would present Fed vice chair Janet Yellen. However, the White House has denied the Japanese report. CNBC continues to report the Fed chairman’s job “is Summers’ to lose.”

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
The London A.M. gold fix is $1,308.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,328.00.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Thursday. The gold market bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart has been negated. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,304.60 and then at $1,300.00.  


December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-week low Thursday. Silver bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $24.25 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.65. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $22.185 and then at $22.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $21.42 and then at $21.00. .

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News Source: www.reuters.com

Gold Ends Higher, Gets Additional Boost After FOMC Minutes...

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Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session with slight gains Wednesday, but then rallied to near the daily high after the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes. Gold saw a relief rally as the FOMC minutes contained no new, hawkish information. The key “outside markets” were also in a bullish posture for the precious metals on this day: a solidly lower U.S. dollar index and sharp price gains in crude oil futures. August gold was last up $16.70 at $1,262.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $13.40 at $1,264.50. September Comex silver last traded up $0.232 at $19.37 an ounce.

The market place was just a bit surprised by the FOMC minutes reporting that around half of the 19 committee members are in favor of starting to wind down or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program, also known as quantitative easing, by the end of this year. While that could be read as somewhat more hawkish, the minutes also said most FOMC members want to see more economic data before making any firm conclusions on ending QE. The minutes mainly discussed how Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke should articulate the Fed’s monetary policy to the public. The consensus in the market place at present is that the Fed will start to cut back its bond purchases sometime later this year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will also give a speech later Wednesday, which could also be market-sensitive.

China’s latest manufacturing report was released Wednesday and it came in on the weak side. Exports fell 3.1% in June, on an annualized basis. A 3.3% gain was expected. Chinese imports were down 0.7% on the year, while a 5.5% increase was forecast. The news had a somewhat limited impact on the market place, as the Chinese premiere said Wednesday China will continue on its path of long-term reform.

European stock markets were pressured Wednesday after the Standard & Poors ratings agency lowered Italy’s sovereign credit rating. The European Union’s sovereign debt crisis has been on the back burner of the market place for several months, but the situation has never been fully cleared up and could at any time heat up to roil world markets.

The U.S. dollar index was lower Wednesday on profit taking after hitting a three-year high on Tuesday. Still, the overall strong technical posture of the dollar index remains a major bearish underlying factor for the metals. Nymex crude oil prices were sharply higher Wednesday and hit a 14-month high overnight. With Nymex crude trading over $105 a barrel, that is a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,256.00 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,255.50.
Technically, August gold futures prices were nearer the session high late Wednesday. The gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold prices are still in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,179.40. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,267.00 and then at $1,277.50. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $1,242.20 and then at Tuesday’s low of $1,232.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5
September silver futures prices closed nearer the session high Wednesday and saw more short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the silver market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Silver bears still have the solid overall near-term chart advantage.

Prices are in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $20.075 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $18.17. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $19.485 and then at $19.83. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $19.93 and then at Monday’s low of $18.67.


September N.Y. copper closed up 255 points at 309.00 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the copper market as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Copper bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 317.90 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 298.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 311.60 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at 305.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 302.50 cents.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

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Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.marketwatch.com