Friday, September 13, 2013

Gold outlook: Fed Tapering Fear...

Gold prices are seeing follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s strong losses and have hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading Friday. Much of the selling in gold and silver is tied to their weakening near-term technical postures and to less risk aversion in the market place this week. December Comex gold was last down $12.60 at $1,318.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $2.70 at $1318.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.244 at $21.895 an ounce.

It was generally quiet in Asian and European markets overnight, except the gold and silver markets. The perceived decreasing odds of U.S. military action against the Syrian regime continue to pressure safe-haven gold. Traders that had made bets the U.S. military would strike Syria and went long gold are at least temporarily licking their wounds and unwinding those positions.

Many traders and investors this week have been looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed will announce a $10 billion or $15 billion reduction in its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The surprise to the markets could be if the Fed either does nothing at this meeting, or is more aggressive in its initial reduction in bond purchases. For the past several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The Japanese Nikkei news service reported overnight that President Obama late next week will name Larry Summers as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index rallied modestly on this report, while gold saw some added selling pressure—on notions Summers as a Fed chairman would be more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy than would present Fed vice chair Janet Yellen. However, the White House has denied the Japanese report. CNBC continues to report the Fed chairman’s job “is Summers’ to lose.”

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
The London A.M. gold fix is $1,308.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,328.00.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Thursday. The gold market bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart has been negated. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,304.60 and then at $1,300.00.  

December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-week low Thursday. Silver bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $24.25 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.65. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $22.185 and then at $22.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $21.42 and then at $21.00. .

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