EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 10-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices soared on Friday led by shares in the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences, Commercial & Professional Services and Capital Goods sectors. The S&P 500 (1797.02) remains below its 20d moving average (1804.3 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1809.3 - flat slope).

European markets are expected to open on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was under pressure against most of its major counterparts on Friday. On the US economic data front, nonfarm payrolls rose by 113K (180K expected) in January after an upwardly revised 75K gain the previous month. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% (6.7% expected) from 6.7%.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts. In Europe, German industrial production fell 0.6% in December after a 2.4% increase in November (revised from +1.9%). Economists expected the production to be up 0.3%. Germany trade balance was an excess of E14.2B in December compared to an excess of E19.1B in November. Exports retreated 0.9% while imports decreased 0.6%.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was up $2.1 to $99.95. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $95.67) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.35).

Gold was up $10 to $1268.2. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1254) and above its 50D MA (@ $1236).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was up 1.6c to 324.45c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1225 tons to 308025 tons.

UK Market News

The Lloyds Bank England and Wales Regional PMI: "At 59.1 in January, down from 60.0 in December, the headline index measuring overall business activity across the English regions remained above the 50.0 mark, signalling growth for the 15th consecutive month. The latest reading was the lowest for 7 months, (...) The South West (62.8) was the best performing of the English regions during January, followed by the South East (61.5) and West Midlands (60.9). Companies in the East Midlands recorded the weakest growth of business activity at the start of 2014 with a reading of 56.2. Meanwhile, the activity index for Wales remains broadly consistent at 58.2 in January, from 58.4 in December. (...) Private sector employment continued to grow across all nine English regions and Wales, (...) Cost inflation was sustained across England and Wales during January."

The Bank of Scotland PMI rose to 57.2 in January from 54.5 in December. The reported said: "An accelerated rise in new business in January boosted both output and job creation, with the former rising at one of the strongest rates on record. Input price inflation meanwhile dipped from December's 9-month high, but nevertheless remained strong and led businesses to raise output prices at a faster rate. (...) The pace of expansion signalled by the index was still slightly slower than that observed across the UK as a whole, however."

Ireland: The Ulster Bank Construction PMI posted 56.4 in January, down from 58.3 in December. The report pointed out: "The Irish construction sector maintained its recent run of improvement at the start of 2014 as further new business growth led to another strong rise in activity. Meanwhile, firms increased their employment at a faster pace. (...) Activity has now risen in each of the past five months. Where growth of activity was recorded, panellists reported that this was in line with further increases in new orders."

European Markets

ECB: Publication of the Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators (10am CET)

Deutsche Telekom has acquired the remaining 40% stake in its T-Mobile Czech Republic division for appx. E800M, reported Reuters citing a source with knowledge of the matter.

Continental has urged the ECB to curb the strength of the euro which may shrink the Co's sales by another E700M in 2014, according to the Co's CEO cited by the Euro am Sonntag newspaper.

Automobiles & Parts: Daimler (+1.7% to E63.54) reached a new 3-month relative high against the Dax.

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Buying Gold "Famous" But at Lower Weights as Chinese New Year Spending Slows...

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BUYING GOLD and silver jewelry has proven "popular" with Chinese shoppers celebrating the new Year of the Horse, according to retailers and local media.

 

But Beijing's drive to deter high spending by government officials after a series of corruption and luxury lifestyle scandals has dented overall spending at Chinese New Year, easing total growth to the slowest in a decade, data say.

 

Now the world's No.1 gold buying nation, China's households spent CNY 96 billion ($15bn) on jewelry and bullion products between January and March 2013, according to data from global market-development group, the World Gold Council.

 

This year, people buying gold at Caishikou, a leading jewelry retailer, spent CNY 250 million ($41m) in the first two days alone of the Chinese New Year, says Reuters, quoting data from the chain's website.

 

The holidays began on Lunar New Year's Eve, 31st January.

 

Jewelry with a horse theme proved "popular among consumers" buying gold and silver, says the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce, as did lower-weight bullion products.

 

"The popularity of smaller-sized gold ornaments is growing," said the People's Daily ahead of the New Year holidays, reporting a "sharp slowdown" in people buying gold bars in northeast China's Jilin province (population 27 million).

 

"Few people now buy gold bars that weigh above 10 grams," the government-owned newspaper quoted a gold retailing bank manager.

 

"Most choose gold ornaments weighing from five to 10 grams as holiday gifts for relatives and friends."

 

During the 7-day holidays to 6th February, China's overall retail spending totaled CNY 610 billion, said the Ministry of Commerce on Friday, the equivalent of $100 billion.

 

Quoting the data, the South China Morning Post says jewelry sales rose 30% and more from 2013 in central China's Hubei province (population 58 million), north-eastern Liaoning (43m), and mid-eastern Heilongjiang (38m).

 

But all told, growth in China's retail sales slowed to 13.3% from last year, the Ministry says, down from 2013's pace of 14.7% and the 16.2% of 2012.

 

"The number is relatively healthy, given the circumstances," the South China Morning Post quotes Moody's economist Alaistair Chan.

 

Chinese New Year "[was] set to be less noisy and consumerist than usual," thePeople's Daily said last week, "as concern over air pollution has combined with the authorities' ongoing frugality and anti-corruption drive to depress sales of fireworks and luxury gifts."

 

"The anti-graft campaign has made consumption cheaper and more affordable for Chinese households," reckons Barclays Capital economist Chang Jian.

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EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 07-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices jumped on Thursday helped by shares in the Retailing, Media and Consumer Durables & Apparel sectors. The S&P 500 (1773.43) remains below its 20d moving average (1806.3 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1809.5 - negative slope). The 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day one (a bearish crossover).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts on Thursday. On the US economic data front, initial jobless claims fell to 331K (335K expected and 351K prior) in the week ended February 1st. Trade deficit widened 12% to $38.7B (36.0B expected) in December according to the Commerce Department.

The Euro was firm against its major counterparts. In Europe, ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.25%, as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB is "ready to act" regarding the economic situation. German factory orders were sown by 0.5% in December after a 2.4% gain in NOvember. Economist anticipated a 0.2% increase.

The British Pound was mixed against its major counterparts. Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and held its asset purchase target at £375B.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was about flat to $97.82. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59). 

Gold was about flat to $1257.4. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1252) and above its 50D MA (@ $1235). 

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was up 3.5c to 322.35c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1975 tons to 309250 tons.

UK Market News

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG Report on Jobs pointed out: "Permanent staff placements continued to increase strongly in January, although the pace of expansion eased from the 45-month high recorded in December. Similarly, temp billings rose at a rate only marginally slower than December’s 15-year peak. (...) Overall job vacancies rose at a sharp and accelerated rate in January. The pace of expansion was the fastest in over 15.5 years. (...) The rate of growth of permanent staff salaries remained elevated at the start of 2014, holding at a pace broadly in line with December’s six-year peak."

European Markets

Press briefing on the occasion of the SSM Framework regulation consultation chaired by Ignazio Angeloni, Director General Macro-Prudential Policy and Financial Stability of the ECB, and Edouard Fernandez-Bollo, Secretary General of the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and Head of the Workstream that devised the draft ECB SSM Framework Regulation, in Frankfurt. 11 am CET.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Iceland's rating at "BBB", outlook "Stable", saying: "Iceland's ratings are supported by its high level of income per capita and indicators of governance and human development similar to the highest-rated sovereigns."

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EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 06-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices fell on Wednesday pressured by shares in the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences, Energy and Telecommunication Services sectors. The S&P 500 (1751.64) remains below its 20d moving average (1809.5 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1810.1 - negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the US economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended January 31st rose 0.4%. Companies added 175K workers (185K expected) in January after a downwardly revised 227K increase the previous month according to the ADP report. Finally, ISM non-manufacturing rose to 54.0 (53.7 expected) in January from 53.0 the prior month.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts. In Europe, euro zone PMI composite was 52.9 in January in final estimation vs 53.2 in prior one. It was 52.1 the month before. PMI services was 51.6, vs 51.9 expected, vs 51 in December. Separately, euro zone retail sales fell 1.6% in December after a 0.9% gain in November (revised from +1.4%). Economists anticipated them to be down 0.7%. In Germany, PMI services was 53.1 in January vs 53.6 anticipated and 53.5 a month earlier.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was about flat to $97.21. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59). The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 31 January, crude oil inventories increased 440k barrels compared to the previous week. 

Gold was up $3.2 to $1257.9. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1251) and above its 50D MA (@ $1235).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was about flat to 319.35c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 2050 tons to 311225 tons.

UK Market News

AstraZeneca posted 4Q LPS of $0.42 vs EPS of $1.21 a year earlier and operating loss of $591M vs profit of $2.0B on revenue of $6.8B, down 6% (-4% at constant exchange rates), citing "the $1,758M intangible impairment related to Bydureon ($1.10 per share)". FY13 EPS plunged 59% to $2.04 and operating profit was down 54% to $3.7B. The Board declares a second interim dividend of $1.90 per share, bringing the dividend for the full year to $2.80.

Vodafone Group issued a December quarter Interim management statement: "Group revenue for the quarter declined 3.6% to £11.0B, including a 2.1 percentage point impact from adverse foreign exchange movements and a 2.8 percentage point positive impact from M&A and other activity. On an organic basis, Group service revenue decreased 4.8% or 2.4% excluding the impact of mobile termination rate cuts. Emerging markets continued to generate strong organic growth supported by rapidly increasing mobile internet users and data usage. The environment in Europe remains challenging and we have continued to experience intense macroeconomic, regulatory and competitive pressures in the quarter. (...) Organic service revenue in AMAP grew 5.5% in the quarter, with continued strong revenue growth across the majority of our markets. (...) we remain on target to deliver adjusted operating profit of around £5B and free cash flow in the £4.5B- £5.0B range, based on the pro forma guidance given on 2 September 2013."

European Markets

ECB: Governing Council meeting, press conference 2:30pm CET.

Hannover Re announced: "Of the total premium volume booked in the previous year in non-life reinsurance (excluding facultative business and structured reinsurance) amounting to E6,028M, roughly two-thirds of the treaties with a volume of altogether E3,913M were up for renewal as at 1 January 2014. Of this, a premium volume of E3,393M was renewed, while treaties worth E520M were either cancelled or renewed in modified form. Including increases of E401M from new or modified treaties and thanks to improved prices, the total renewed premium volume thus came in at E3,832M - equivalent to a decrease of 2%. Despite various moves by the market to induce softening, Hannover Re was able to write its business at broadly unchanged conditions." On the 2014 outlook the Co said: "The Co has budgeted an amount of E670M for major losses incurred in 2014. Assuming that major loss expenditure does not significantly exceed this expectation and provided there are no unforeseen downturns on capital markets, Hannover Re is looking to generate Group net income of around E850M for the 2014 financial year. The Co is targeting a return on investment of 3.2%."

Daimler, Sky Deutschland, Heidelbergcement, GEA Group FY results expected

Media: Axel Springer (+1.42% to E47.48) reached a new 3-month relative high against the Dax.

DE - Stock/Benchmark ratio(s) 50D MA cross over: Hannover Re (+0.95% to E59.56), Stada Arzneimittel (+1.67% to E35.85).

Vinci announced that FY13 net income grew 2.3% YoY to E2.0B (EPS flat at E3.54) and EBITDA rose 3.3% to E5.6B on revenue of E40.3B, up 4.4%. The Co proposed maintaining dividend at E1.77 per share. It added: "VINCI is expecting stabilisation of its revenue on a constant structure basis in 2014. In Concessions, the Group is expecting the continuation of the positive trends in motorway and airport passenger traffic seen in 2013. In Contracting, despite an on-going difficult economic environment in 2014, especially in France, VINCI has good visibility on activity thanks to the high level of its backlog. The SEA (HSR Tours-Bordeaux) project is expected to continue to materially contribute to the top line, similar to 2013. On an actual structure basis, revenue will be impacted by the deconsolidation of CFE in 2013."

Sanofi reported 4Q business net income up 16.8% to E1.8B (EPS +17.1% to E1.37) on net sales of E8.5B, down 0.8% (+6.5% at constant exchange rates). FY13 business net income fell 17.5% to E6.7B (EPS -17.8% to E5.05). The Co proposed a dividend of E2.80 per share. It pointed out: "In Q4 2013, Emerging Markets sales recorded double digit growth (+10.4%). In 2013, Emerging Markets sales were E10,957M, an increase of 4.4% (+7.1% excluding Brazil generics). (...) Diabetes sales were up 19.0% in Q4 2013. Diabetes recorded strong double digit growth (+18.7%) to E6,568M in 2013 driven by the performance of Lantus (+20.0% to E5,715M). (...) Vaccines sales were stable in Q4 2013 as supply improved for Pentacel and Adacel in the US from mid-October. In 2013, Vaccines sales were stable at E3,716M as record flu vaccines sales offset US supply constraints on Pentacel and Adacel. (...) Genzyme recorded a robust performance in Q4 2013 with sales up 31.4%. In 2013, Genzyme recorded sales of E2,142M, up 25.9% driven by 16.6% growth of the rare disease franchise and by Aubagio (E166M)." It provided a 2014 guidance: "The continued performance of growth platforms, investments in new product launches and in late-stage pipeline should lead to a 2014 business EPS growth between 4% and 7% at CER."

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EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 05-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices rebounded on Tuesday led by shares in the Consumer Services, Automobiles & Components and Consumer Durables & Apparel sectors. The S&P 500 (1755.2) remains below its 20d moving average (1813.8 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1811 - negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar rose against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the US economic data front, factory orders dropped 1.5% MoM (-1.8% expected) in December after a downwardly revised 1.5% gain the previous month.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts. Euro zone PPI Index was up by 0.2% in December, as expected, after a 0.1% decline the month before.

The Australian Dollar jumped against its major counterparts. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopted a more neutral stance. Governor Glenn Stevens who previously qualified the AussiE level as uncomfortably high" said Australian dollar's decline "will assist in achieving balanced growth"

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was up $0.9 to $97.36. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59).

Gold was down $2.8 to $1254.9. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1249) and above its 50D MA (@ $1235).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was up 1.1c to 319.4c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). The 14d RSI below 30 (27.54) indicates Copper Future (MAR 14) contract was oversold. In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 600 tons to 313275 tons.

UK Market News

Imperial Tobacco Group announced the appointment of Karen Witts, currently group finance director of Kingfisher Plc, as a non-executive director.

Hargreaves Lansdown reported 1H results: "The Group achieved a profit before tax of £104.1M, an 11% increase compared to H1 2013, consequent to increased levels of AUA (Assets Under Administration). (...) A lower rate of corporation tax meant that the diluted EPS increased by comparatively more than the profit before tax measure, with a 13% increase from 15.0p to 17.0p per share. (...) Continued growth with record revenue (up 13% to £158.4M) (...) Total net business inflows for the 6 months of £2.80B, up 70% (H1 2013: £1.65B) (...) Total assets under administration of £43.4B (up 43% on 31 December 2012 and 19% on 30 June 2013) (...) The Board has declared an interim dividend of 7.0p per share (H1 2013: 6.3p).

British Land said it has agreed to purchase £41M of additional units in Hercules Unit Trust (HUT) at £613 per unit (3.8% below latest NAV) as part of a scheduled pre-emption process. The Co added: "British Land has also submitted an application to Schroder Property Managers (Jersey) Ltd, the manager of HUT, to acquire up to £35M of further units in HUT which have been tendered as part of this process."
Homeserve Plc announced: "HomeServe expects its adjusted profit before tax for the year ending 31 March 2014 to be in line with market expectations."

European Markets

BMW is in advanced talks with Mexico's government on building a $1.5B car factory in the country, reported Dow Jones citing unnamed government officials.

Adidas has filed a patent-infringement lawsuit in the US against Under Armour Inc, according to Dow Jones.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen said 3Q net income plunged to E7M from E14M in the previous year and adjusted EBITDA was down E36M from E38M on sales of E588M, down 14.4%. 9-month net loss narrowed to E40M from E94M a year earlier. On the outlook the Co said: "The outlook for the 2013/2014 financial year and the aim of generating a consolidated net profit remain unchanged. (...) the Co expects sales volumes for the year as a whole to be around 10% lower than in the previous year."

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EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS 04-02-2014

Market Comment

US indices slumped on Monday pressured by shares in the Telecommunication Services, Consumer Durables & Apparel and Insurance sectors. The S&P 500 (1741.89) remains below its 20d moving average (1817.4 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1811.5 - negative slope).

European markets are expected to open on a negative note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Monday. On the US economic data front, ISM Manufacturing dropped to 51.3 (56.0 expected) in January from 56.5 the previous month. Construction spending rose 0.1% MoM (flat expected) in December after a downwardly revised 0.8% gain the prior month.

The Euro was firm against its major counterparts. In Europe, euro zone PMI manufacturing was 54 in January in final estimation, vs 53.9 in prior one and 52.7 the month before. In Germany, PMI manufacturing advanced to 56.5 in January in final estimation vs 56.3 in prior one and 54.3 in December.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was down $0.8 to $96.68. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59).

Gold was up $12.3 to $1256.9. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1248) and above its 50D MA (@ $1234).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was down 2c to 317.65c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). The 14d RSI below 30 (27.53) indicates Copper Future (MAR 14) contract was oversold. In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 650 tons to 313875 tons.

UK Market News

BP announced results: "Underlying replacement cost profit for 4Q was $2.8B, compared with $3.9B for 4Q2012. Full-year underlying replacement cost profit was $13.4B for 2013, compared with $17.1B for 2012. Compared with the same periods in 2012, both 4Q and full year 2013 underlying results were affected by: the significant impact of BP's major divestment programme; weaker refining margins; and higher depreciation and exploration write-offs as the group brought new projects online and increased its investment in exploration. The impacts of these were partially offset by strong growth in underlying oil and gas production, particularly from key regions such as the North Sea, Angola and Gulf of Mexico. 4Q's result also benefitted from higher earnings from Rosneft than reported from TNK-BP in 4Q2012. (...) BP announced a dividend for 4Q of 9.5 cents per share, to be paid in March, 5.6% higher than the 4Q dividend last year. (...) The cumulative pre-tax charge for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill was $42.7B at the end of 2013, having increased by $0.2B in 4Q to reflect an increase in the provision for legal costs, and ongoing Gulf Coast Restoration Organisation costs."

European Markets

ECB: Publication of the MFI interest rate statistics (10am CET); Publication of the Consolidated Financial Statement of the Eurosystem (3pm CET)

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EVENTS & FINANCIAL NEWS...

Market Comment

US indices dropped on Friday pressured by shares in the Retailing, Automobiles & Components and Banks sectors. The S&P 500 (1782.59) remains below its 20d moving average (1821.9 - negative slope) and its 50d moving average (1812.4 - negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar rose against most of its major counterparts on Friday. On the US economic data front, personal income was flat MoM in December (+0.1% expected) while personal spending rose 0.4% MoM (+0.2% expected) in December. Finally, University of Michigan Confidence index for January rose to 81.2 (81 expected) from 80.4 in December.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAR 14) was down $0.7 to $97.55. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $98.29) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.59).

Gold was about flat to $1244.2. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1247) and above its 50D MA (@ $1234).

Copper Future (MAR 14) on Comex was down 3.2c to 319.4c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1675 tons to 314525 tons.

UK Market News

Ireland: The Investec Manufacturing PMI Ireland was at 52.8 in January vs 53.5 in December. The report pointed out: "Business conditions in the Irish manufacturing sector continued to improve in January as output, new orders and employment all increased again. However, there were some signs of an easing in momentum at the start of the year as production growth slowed to the weakest in five months and firms lowered their purchasing activity."

European Markets

ECB: Hearing of Sabine Lautenschläger at "Exchange of views with the European Parliament, ECON Committee, as candidate for the Vice-Chair of the SSM" in Strasbourg, France.

Commerzbank is negotiating the sale of a E4B portfolio of Spanish property loans to private equity firms Apollo and Cerberus, according to German weekly magazine WirtschaftsWoche.

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