Bernanke will try to have some cake and will eat it too...

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 Bernanke is really in the hot seat today – both in terms of potential market responses and politically, as lawmakers’ attention directed the US Federal Reserve’s way is becoming increasingly glaring. The first Bank of Canada meeting under new governer Stephen Poloz is also on tap today.

The Bank of Japan meeting minutes overnight drew yawns from the market audience as the rhetorical line seems to be “implement what we have promised and it will take some time to judge the success of our policy” while anticipation is more important on the political front with this weekend’s upcoming Upper House elections. There were minor expression of concern by some members, but the unanimous decision was to stay the course on current policy.

Equity markets finally had a negative day yesterday, after a remarkable string of positive days, and bonds are looking well supported. If Bernanke follows up with more relative dovishness today without asset markets bulling sharply higher, this would appear to be the most USDJPY negative outcome. USDJPY bottomed out – you guessed it – right near the Ichimoku cloud area overnight – triple underlining the focus on this indicator, which has dropped several pips today and is closer to the 98.85 level now.

Looking ahead Bernanke testimony

 

Remember that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s full testimony today will be released at 1230 GMT before he actually presents it at 1400 GMT, followed by what is likely to be a very lively Q&A session, with Bernanke in the hot seat as I’m convinced that Republicans are increasingly making it a part of their party platform to remain critical of the Fed as the “Washington enabler”, with the endless irony that it is Republican constituents (the wealthy) that have benefitted the most, relatively speaking, from Fed policy over the last several years.

What the Fed would like to communicate, in my opinion, is that it is ready to act either way depending on incoming data, but that as things stand right now, it would prefer for bond yields to come back down some while it has no interest at all in driving too much exuberance elsewhere. Can it pull this off? If this message is successfully delivered, USDJPY may offer the most volatility.

Meanwhile, a Bernanke reminder that confirms expectations for tapering and leaves the market to take its guidance from incoming data rather than Fed signals would be more clearly USD positive, with trade selection depending on the asset market response (scary drop in equities could still push JPY higher, but EURUSD or GBPUSD might offer a more straightforward strong USD response in this instance).
Regardless of the message Bernanke delivers, the worst potential outcome in the following days would be a brief squirt of USD weakness followed by strong signs of support. If the USD is going to move to the strong side right away on the heels of the Bernanke testimony, I would look to EURUSD and GBPUSD for the most important signs of a reversal.

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Gold Survey: Split Views On Gold Price Direction Seen In Gold Survey

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There is no clear majority on the direction of gold prices for next week, as survey participants in the weekly World News Gold Survey differ in their view of where the yellow metal’s price might travel.

In the World News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 29 responded this week. Of those 29 participants, 13 see prices up, while eight see prices down, and eight see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Those who see higher prices said gold could be forming a potential bottom around the $1,550s, which if it holds, could portend higher prices. Others cited physical buying and the continued underlying support of ultra-loose central bank monetary as supportive for prices. Ideas that the gold market has reached a good value area have others suggesting a price rebound.

“With bullish sentiment reaching historically low levels … futures hitting multi-month lows (and) mandatory government spending cuts activated, I would expect bargain hunters to start searching for a bottom and a sharp recovery to develop into the market,” said Phil Streible, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.

Participants who see weaker prices cite the market’s inability to hold over $1,600 an ounce and the bearish short-term technical chart picture for gold.

Those who are neutral or see prices trading sideways said they want to watch to see how the market develops as it trades under $1,600, especially as sentiment in the market remains negative and equities grab the headlines and investor interest.

“Technically gold remains in the negative mode; however, the $1,550 level is the beginning, we believe, of a base-building process. For this coming week we expect to see more two-way action and broad trading range,” said Adam Hewison,

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News Source: www.bloomberg.com

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