Monday, June 16, 2014


Market Comment

US indices gained on Friday led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment, Energy and Consumer Services sectors. The S&P 500 (1936.16) remains above its 20d moving average (1918.1 - positive slope) and its 50d moving average (1888.8 - positive slope).v

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was up against most of its counterparts on Friday, with the exception of the GBP. On the US economic data front, PPI was -0.2% MoM (+0.1% expected) in May. The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index also missed expectations with a rating of 81.2 (83 expected).

The Euro was mixed, falling against the US Dollar and GPB, while rising against the JPY and AUD. In Europe, euro zone trade balance was an excess of E15.7B in April vs an excess of E16.7B in March. German consumer prices fell 0.1% in May in final estimation, as expected, after a 0.2% decrease the month before. YoY, prices gained 0.9%. UK construction output increased by 1.2% in April after a 0.2% decline the month before (revised from -1%). Economists anticipated a 1.5% rise.

The Australian Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts.


After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (JUL 14) was about flat to $106.79. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $101) and above its 50D MA (@ $100.35). The 14d RSI above 70 (73.62) indicates WTI Crude Future (JUL 14) was overbought.

Gold was up $4.2 to $1277.7. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1268) and below its 50D MA (@ $1286).

Copper Future (JUL 14) on Comex was up 1.3c to 302.85c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 307.41c) and below its 50D MA (@ 303.17c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 2025 tons to 163700 tons.

UK Market News

S&P has revised its outlook on the UK to "stable" from "negative", saying: "The outlook revision reflects our view of the robust and broadening recovery in the UK economy, and the further progress that the government is making on consolidating public finances. We expect the economy to expand by nearly 3.0% this year, and 2.5% in 2015, driven by business investment and private consumption. We see improving credit and capital market conditions as supportive of growth, along with an expected gradual resumption of positive real wage gains."

The average advertised UK house price rose 0.1% MoM (+7.7% YoY) in June compared with +3.6% MoM (+8.9% YoY) in May, according to online estate agency Rightmove.

European Markets

ECB: Publication of the Euro area HICP statistics (seasonally adjusted) (10am CET)

Deutsche Lufthansa may form a new low-cost platform within its Eurowings regional carrier to compete against Ryanair and Easyjet, according to German magazine Der Spiegel.

Today's Economic Events

EC 10:00: JUN Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM): NA
US 13:30: JUN Empire Manufacturing: 15
US 14:15: MAY Industrial Production (MoM): 0.5%
US 14:15: MAY Industrial Capacity Utilization: 78.8%
US 15:00: JUN NAHB Housing Market: NA

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