Friday, February 28, 2014


Market Comment

US indices rose on Thursday led by shares in the Telecommunication Services, Technology Hardware & Equipment and Media sectors. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in the Congress "Unseasonably cold weather has played some role. What we need to do, and will be doing in the weeks ahead, is to try to get a firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to softer outlook." She replied in respond to tapering "if there’s a significant change in the outlook, certainly we would be open to reconsidering." The S&P 500 (1854.29) remains above its 20d moving average (1812.1 - positive slope) and its 50d moving average (1819.5 - positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Thursday. On the US economic data front, durable good orders fell 1.0% MoM (-1.7% expected) in January. Initial jobless claims rose to 348K (335K expected and 334K prior) in the week ended February 22nd.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts. In Europe, euro-zone M3 money supply was up 1.2% YoY in January (+1.1% expected) after a 1% advance in December. Consumer confidence was -12.7 in February in final estimation, as expected, vs -11.7 the month before. In Germany, unemployment was down by 14K in February after a 28K decrease in January. Economists anticipated a 10K drop. Unemployment rate was 6.8%, flat MoM. Separately, German CPI index was up by 0.5% in February in first estimation after a 0.6% decrease in January.


After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (APR 14) was about flat to $102.29. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $95.67) and above its 50D MA (@ $96.35).

Gold was about flat to $1331.2. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1298) and above its 50D MA (@ $1259).

Copper Future (MAY 14) on Comex was about flat to 320.55c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 330.62c) and below its 50D MA (@ 326.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 2050 tons to 274350 tons.

UK Market News

The UK Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at -7 in February (as expected), according to market research firm GfK.

European Markets

ECB: Participation by Sabine Lautenschl√§ger in Panel 2 "Pittsburgh and beyond: are banking activities safer than before?" at Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Banks organised by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany. (10am CET)
Today's Economic Events
GE 07:00: JAN Retail Sales (MoM): 1%
FR 07:45: JAN Producer Price Index (MoM): NA
EC 10:00: JAN Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate: 12%
US 13:30: 4Q GDP (QoQ): 2.5%
US 13:30: 4Q GDP Price (QoQ): 1.3%
US 13:30: 4Q Personal Consumption: 2.9%
US 14:45: FEB Chicago Purchasing Manager Index: 56.4
US 14:55: FEB U. of Michigan Confidence: 81.2

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