Sunday, July 14, 2013

Week ahead features Bernanke’s testimony, Beige Book, and corporate earnings...

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This week will feature retail sales, housing and inflation data alongside the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke`s will testify before the congress in the semiannual testimony once known as the Humphrey-Hawkins report.

Bernanke will testify before on the House side Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and then on the Senate side Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET. The remarks come on the heels of the surprising minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which showed a more sharply divided Fed on the issue of asset purchase timing than had been previously understood.

The testimony could, however, further clarify where the Fed stands on its expected path for asset purchases following the last employment report, which analysts say all but guarantees a tapering of Fed purchases in September. The Federal Reserve will also release its Beige Book report on the economy Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Housing data to be released next week include June housing starts Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET and the National Association of Home Builders` July housing market index Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Housing starts is currently the most important indicator of where the housing market is headed - supply constraints are currently holding up sales and boosting prices, so more construction is really the only way the market can move forward. Both higher construction starts and building permits are forecast for the month.

June`s retail sales report, to be released Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to post another month of modest core sales, right in line with the subdued growth expectations for the second quarter. Gasoline sales will also likely boost the headline.

Regional manufacturing surveys to be released in the week ahead include the Philadelphia Federal Reserve July business outlook survey and the New York Federal Reserve`s July Empire State manufacturing survey Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The surveys are expected to dip slightly, though remain positive, after both posted surprise gains in June. Regional surveys, however, are very difficult to accurately forecast.

The June Consumer Price Index will also be released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and is expected to show another modest gain in core prices. Inflation data has taken a back seat to jobs data as far as the Federal Reserve is concerned, but any further declines in the year-over-year rate could change the discussion. Initial jobless claims, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, should likely be disregarded due to the noted seasonal adjustment difficulties in the month of July. Department of Labor officials said the surprise jump to 360,000 in the last release is likely due to this seasonal volatility.

Other data to be released over the week include June industrial production Tuesday at 9:15 a.m. ET, June Treasury International Capital flows Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET, June business inventories Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, June leading economic indicators Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Mortgage Bankers Association`s mortgage applications index Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Earnings


Wall Street is quietly optimistic given earnings forecasts have been knocked down quite substantially in the lead-in, suggesting the potential for upside surprise. After JP Morgan (Dow) and Wells Fargo Friday, next week we`ll see Dow components Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, American Express, Bank of America, Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Verizon and General Electric along with Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Google and Morgan Stanley.

Dell Inc. shareholders will vote on the proposed $24.4 billion buyout of the personal-computer maker by founder Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management LLC.

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