Weak U.S. Data Pushes Gold to Two Week High...

www.cfb.ae

August Gold reached a two-week high after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news helped drive the U.S. Dollar lower. The metal was trading firmer before the release of the Preliminary U.S. GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims due to the volatility in the Japanese markets, but it was the economic data which gave it its biggest boost.

The news that the U.S. economy expanded only at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter, missed pre-report estimates of 2.5 percent. Initial claims increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 354,000 from 340,000 previously. Traders went into the report looking for 342,000.

The weak data drove investors out of the U.S. Dollar because it probably means the Fed will maintain the current pace of its asset-purchasing program. Since gold is priced in dollars, the break in the Greenback made gold more attractive to foreign investors.

Although the main trend is down, its looks as if gold has enough upside momentum to challenge a minor retracement zone at $1413.25 to $1431.01.

A combination of the weaker dollar and a Euro Zone report showing that confidence in the area’s economy improved more than anticipated in May helped drive up the EUR/USD. The poor U.S. economic reports helped weaken the dollar against the Euro because it likely means the Fed will refrain from tapering its aggressive asset-purchasing program.

Technically, the EUR/USD challenged a major retracement zone at 1.3019 to 1.3072 before selling off slightly. The main trend also turned up on the daily chart when the market crossed the swing top at 1.2997.

The GBP/USD turned its main trend to up to up on the daily chart this morning when the Forex pair took out a swing top at 1.5156. The current upside momentum suggests the market is poised to test a major retracement zone at 1.5307 to 1.5377.

Fundamentally, the Sterling found support earlier in the session following the release of a report that showed U.K. house prices rose at the fastest annual rate since November 2011. The mortgage lender Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 1.1% in May from a year earlier.
July Crude Oil weakened early in the session, but found support when it briefly pierced a major 50% level at $91.77. The actual low was $91.65. Profit-taking and bottom-picking helped turn crude oil to the upside, however, the main trend remains down.


Fundamentally, U.S. inventories rose unexpectedly last month. This likely means crude oil will remain range bound over the near-term. Along as the tops at $97.38 and $97.35 remain intact, look for the market to continue to find support in the $91.77 to $90.45 range.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.cnbc.com

A hedge fund for you and me? The best move is to take a pass...

Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs Asset Management announced that it would launch a new mutual fund that — apparently — will bring the joy of hedge fund investing to the masses. For as little as $1,000, the Multi-Manager Alternatives Fund (GMAMX) allows mom-and-pop investors to put their life savings into some of Wall Street’s riskiest and most expensive products. This “fund of funds” will, according to its prospectus, let investors gain exposure to the trading strategies of hedge funds.

The obvious question is: “Why would investors want that?”

Despite all the media coverage, glitz and glam of hedge funds, they have not done well for their investors. They have high — some say excessively high — fees; their short- and long-term performance has been poor.

Before delving into the details, let’s define exactly what we are discussing: Hedge funds are private investment partnerships. The general partner is typically the fund manager (on occasion it includes his financial backers). The investors in the fund are the limited partners, normally institutions and accredited investors. This partnership structure typically has a max of 99 limited partners. Unlike mutual funds or brokerages, hedge funds are mostly unregulated.

The global hedge fund industry manages $2.13 trillion, or about 1.1 percent of all assets held by financial institutions, according to the Coalition of Private Investment Companies. Given what a relatively small asset class this is, hedge funds certainly receive an excess of media attention. Many hedge fund managers have become billionaires; perhaps this — plus their reputations as the smartest guys in the room — is why they have captured the investing public’s imagination.

Most hedge funds are “go anywhere” funds — they can own derivatives, mortgage-backed securities, credit-default swaps, structured products and illiquid assets. They also can use nearly unlimited leverage.

Gee, that sounds kinda hazardous. Why would anyone want to assume all of that risk? Originally, hedge funds earned their outsize compensation by, well, hedging their investments. This is a risk-mitigation strategy that can reduce the gains investors reap when markets are up but avoids much of the losses when markets are down.

That no longer seems to be the case with modern hedge funds. They have morphed into “absolute return” funds — more aggressive, greater leverage, more speculative, all in an attempt to generate returns that outperform their benchmarks. Not surprisingly, they have become riskier than the overall market.

Given these increased risks (and higher fees), how have hedge funds performed?
By most measures, not well. They have failed to keep up with major averages when markets were up — and they got mangled (like nearly everyone else) during the 2008-09 downturn. It turns out, most hedge funds are not very hedged.

The latest performance data (via the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index) reveal that hedge funds haven’t fared well at all: They returned a mere 3.5 percent in 2012, while the S&P 500-stock index gained 16 percent. Over the past five years, and the hedge fund index lost 13.6 percent, while the indices added 8.6 percent. That’s as of the end of 2012; it has only gotten worse in 2013. Most hedge funds have fallen even further behind their benchmarks this year, gaining 5.4 percent vs. the market’s rally of 15.4 percent. As a source of comparison, the average mutual fund is up 14.8 percent.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: 

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.washingtonpost.com

Google Joins Apple To Avoid Taxes With Stateless Income...

www.cfb.ae

U.S. Senate scrutiny of Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s tax strategies turned the spotlight on a unit with $30 billion in profit since 2009 that’s incorporated in Ireland, controlled by a board in California, and doesn’t pay taxes in either place.

Apple officials acknowledged yesterday at a congressional hearing that the entity -- a key subsidiary in Apple’s offshore tax strategy -- is managed and controlled in the U.S., yet it still isn’t paying U.S. federal income taxes.The shifting of profits by multinational companies is costing the U.S. and Europe at least $100 billion per year in lost tax revenue, according to Kimberly Clausing, an economics professor at Reed University in Portland, Oregon.

“Over the decades, Congress and governments around the world have allowed a system to develop which allows multinational companies to earn income tax-free by using contracts to shift the income, on paper, to companies in low-and zero-tax countries,” said Michael Durst, a retired international tax attorney based in Washington. The result “is eroding public confidence in the fairness of tax systems in the United States and around the world.”
Similar practices by an assortment of companies -- from Google Inc. (GOOG), owner of the world’s most popular Internet search engine, to Forest Laboratories Inc. (FRX), the maker of antidepressant drug Lexapro -- are drawing increased scrutiny from regulators in the U.S. and around the world, particularly as European nations face a backlash against austerity measures.

Tax Avoidance

Corporate tax avoidance is now being targeted on several fronts. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a think tank funded by governments around the world, is scheduled to release an “action plan” in July to deal with tax revenue lost to profit shifting. The plan came in response to a request by the Group of 20 nations.The European Commission also is targeting key rules that enable corporate profit shifting.

In the U.S., President Barack Obama’s Treasury Department in April released a list of global tax loopholes to close, many of which it has targeted unsuccessfully in the past. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found that Apple avoided paying income taxes on $74 billion of profit during the past four years in part by moving patent rights to a web of offshore subsidiaries that pay virtually no income taxes.

Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook yesterday maintained the company had done nothing wrong and said it pays “all the taxes we owe -- every single dollar.” The Cupertino, California-based company is also not alone in moving profits to such offshore units.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.bloomberge.com

Gold and Silver Post Dramatic Late Day Price Rebounds To End Higher...

www.cfb.ae

Comex gold and silver futures prices suddenly surged higher near midday Monday, to reverse early, substantial losses and then ended the U.S. day session higher and near their daily highs. Heavy short covering and bargain hunting were featured during the precious metals’ turnarounds. The key “outside markets” were also in a bullish posture for gold and silver Monday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold on Monday ended a seven-session losing streak, while silver posted technical action that now hints it has put in a near-term market bottom. Comex June gold last traded up $18.70 at $1,383.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $24.80 at $1,385.50.  July Comex silver last traded up $0.313 at $22.67 an ounce.

There was also a report released at midday Monday that could have sparked some safe-haven buying demand for gold and some short covering. Moody’s reportedly said if the U.S. fails to act on its budget problems in 2013, then the ratings agency might downgrade U.S. government debt. However, that news is not at all earth-shaking and it was likely just a coincidence that it was released about the same time gold and silver embarked upon their rallies.

Gold and silver futures got off to another rocky start to begin the trading week. Both markets were under strong pressure in overnight and in early morning U.S. action. One report overnight said investors worldwide have dumped around $22 billion worth of gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the last nearly five months. The big rally in the U.S. and Japanese stock markets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and low inflation expectations worldwide are major bearish weights on the metals and entire raw commodity sector at present.

The Japanese yen’s rebound against the U.S. dollar was featured Monday. Much of the rebound is likely short covering after the yen’s major descent the past several months. Japan’s economy minister said Monday the downside price action in the yen is about completed. There is a Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday that will be closely watched by the market place. However, the BOJ is not expected to make any major policy changes.

Reports from China Monday said Chinese housing prices rose significantly in April, by up 3.7% and up 2.8% in two separate readings. This led to ideas Chinese monetary officials could tighten policy to stem inflationary price pressures. Such would be a bearish development for the raw commodity sector. There is more key Chinese economic data due out later this week.

Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said on CNBC Monday morning that the Federal Reserve is presently debating on when to wind down the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Notions the Fed will “taper” its monthly bond-buying program (QE3) sooner rather than later is another bearish factor for the raw commodity markets, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,354.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,368.75.
Technically, June gold futures closed prices closed nearer the session high Monday and hit a fresh four-week low early on. Prices scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. The gold bears are still in near-term technical control. Prices are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,321.50. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,397.90 and then at $1,400.00. First support is seen at $1,368.00 and then at $1,350.00.

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and scored a big “outside day” up on the daily bar chart Monday. Monday’s price action also produced a bullish selling “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, whereby prices dropped to a 2.5-year low and then the sellers suddenly became exhausted at the lower price levels and then rallied to close nearer the daily high. Monday’s price action, including the bullish exhaustion tail, is a clue that the silver market has put in a near-term bottom. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $23.84 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at Monday’s low of $20.25. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at Monday’s high of $23.24. Next support is seen at $22.50 and then at $22.00.

May N.Y. copper closed up 290 points at 335.00 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for copper Monday as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 339.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 336.45 cents and then at 339.00 cents. First support is seen at 332.50 cents and then at 330.00 cents.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.marketwatch.com

GOLD OUTLOOK : Gold To Watch The Dollar, Bernanke Influence on Market...

www.cfb.ae

U.S. dollar direction and comments from Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke will influence the gold market next week.The U.S. dollar’s strength was a factor in gold-price weakness this week, as the dollar index rose to its highest level since August 2010. Whether the greenback continues to rise or pulls back will determine where gold goes next week, market participants said. The dollar’s trajectory itself will likely hinge on what Bernanke says about the U.S. economy in two appearances slated over the next week.

June gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,364.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 5% on the week. July silver slipped Friday, settling at $22.352 an ounce, down 5.52% on the week.

In the wsj News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 28 responded this week. Of those 28 participants, nine see prices up, while 17 see prices down and two see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts..

Participants in the survey are decidedly bearish. Several who see prices falling cited the short-term technical-chart based trend with the yellow metal possibly returning to the mid-April lows in the low $1,320s. Others, though, said sentiment in gold became too bearish and they see the market finding support not far from current lows.

The dollar saw some modest weakness on Thursday, but shook that off Friday. “The main reason for the gains in the U.S. dollar over the past week is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will scale back their asset purchase program earlier than expected. (On Thursday) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the central bank may reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond buying as early as this summer,” said Alan Bush, senior financial futures analyst at Archer Financial.
A key part of tapering off the Fed purchases is continued improvement in employment, Williams said at the time.

Given Williams’ comment, market watchers said they are going to look closely at other Fed speakers next week to see if they also echo Williams’ statement. Of critical importance will be two speeches by Bernanke, who will speak first on Saturday about the long-term economic prospects and then in front of Congress on Wednesday, where he will also address the economy.

“Any indication that (a) tapering remains far off and (b) growth is still below where the Fed would like would hurt” the U.S. dollar, said BNP Paribas, which has been skeptical of the dollar gains.
Yet there are many others who see the dollar in a long-term uptrend and that is bearish for commodities in general since they are dollar-denominated. They said any losses in the dollar are slim and noted Friday’s move was higher again.  

“We still think the other side of that equation (relative weakness in the rest of the world) remains in play. In May, we've seen rate cuts and dovish surprises from the ECB (European Central Bank), RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), and the central banks of Israel, Poland, Korea, India, and Turkey. The economic outlook for the rest of the world is getting worse and the U.S., while disappointing a bit recently, remains on track for a modest recovery,” said Brown Brothers Harriman.

Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker, RJO Futures, said the short-term trend in gold is down, although longer term he still likes gold. He said because of the dollar strength, “the path of least resistance in gold is down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it test the April lows” of $1,321.50 basis June Comex contract.

The comments from Bernanke will be the most important event for the week, especially if he talks about the current bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, Haberkorn said. His comments will impact not only gold, but also other financial markets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and equity markets.

As many market watchers said in recent weeks, the record highs in equities have siphoned demand away from gold and other commodities. The rise in stocks has come without a significant correction, and that’s something that worries Haberkorn and others, who said the longer equities rise without a breaking, the greater the fall will be.

BEARISH SENTIMENT OVERDONE

Not everyone is so negative on gold. In fact, some say because sentiment in gold is so beat up, that it might be time to step back in, at least for a short time. Gold has closed lower for seven consecutive sessions. Open interest on the Comex rose about 4,300 contract since May 10 through Thursday, meaning that new short positions likely were established with the price decline.

Ken Morrison, founder and editor of online newsletter, Morrison on the Markets, said since 2009, gold prices have never closed down seven days in a row. He said it’s possible that gold might see some further weakness initially next week, but he sees the market regaining strength by the end of next week.

After being bearish on gold, this is “the first time we've been bullish gold for quite some time, of the opinion the large-volume decline has about run its course,” Morrison added.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.wsj.com

Gold down trend hits 3-Week Low On Surging U.S. $; Fresh Chart Damage Inflicted...

www.cfb.ae

Comex gold futures ended the U.S. day session sharply lower, hit a three-week low and closed below the key $1,400.00 level Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar index and the weaker crude oil prices combined with a weak technical posture to pressure gold and silver prices. June Comex gold last traded down $27.80 at $1,396.70 an ounce. Future gold last prices were quoted down $27.60 at $1,398.75.  July Comex silver last traded down $0.689 at $22.69 an ounce.

Gold and silver saw intensified the selling pressure in late-morning trading Wednesday, to extend earlier losses. Sell stop orders were triggered to push June gold futures prices below key technical and psychological support at the $1,400.00 level. June gold traded down to a low of $1,389.00 on the day. The close below $1,400.00 now opens the door to a challenge of major chart support at the April spike low of $1,321.50 in June futures.

The surging U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market and the weak raw commodity sector, in general, continue to be a bearish weight on the gold and silver markets. The U.S. dollar index hit a 9.5-month high Wednesday. A news report Wednesday said a survey of investment fund managers showed the vast majority of those money managers are shunning the raw commodity sector as an investment asset.

Reports of disappointing demand for physical gold at the peak demand season in India are also bearish for the yellow metal. Spring wedding season and a holiday this week in India have seen gold demand in that nation increase somehow, but not as much as many analysts had expected.

In other overnight news, the Euro currency fell on news of a weaker-than-expected European Union gross domestic product figure. For the sixth quarter in a row, EU GDP came in at negative growth. First-quarter EU GDP came in at minus 0.2%, compared with the fourth-quarter of last year. The GDP data from the EU suggests the European Central Bank will keep its pedal to the metal on its aggressive easing of its monetary policy.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,410.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,433.75.
Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-week low Wednesday. The gold down trend is in near-term technical control and gained some downside momentum with Wednesday’s close below the key psychological level of $1,400.00. Prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

 The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,450.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,321.50. First resistance is seen at $1,400.00 and then at $1,410.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $1,389.00 and then at $1,380.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh three-week low and closed at a fresh 31-month low close Wednesday. Silver bears are in firm overall technical control. Prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside Silver price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $23.84 an ounce.

 The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $21.12. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $23.45. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $22.455 and then at $22.00.

May N.Y. copper closed down 235 points at 326.70 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range. The key “outside markets” were bearish for copper again Wednesday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Copper bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 339.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents.

First resistance for the Copper is seen at today’s high of 328.65 cents and then at 330.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at Wednesday’s low of 323.55 cents.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.reuters.com

Is the Fed Prepping Markets for the End of QE?

www.cfb.ae

If an article in Monday's Wall Street Journal is anything to go by, the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting ready to unwind its massive monetary stimulus program. And that prospect is unlikely to be as alarming for financial markets as feared, analysts tell CNBC.

Fed officials have mapped out a strategy to wind down its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program in careful steps, although the timing of when that will start is still being debated, noted Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath wrote in the WSJ.

Any unwinding of the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) program, which has fueled a rally in equity markets and other risk assets, is generally viewed as negative and any indication of this happening has been highly anticipated in the U.S. since late last week.

"Having spent two New York sessions pricing in a sharp change in Fed stance, it is not obvious that the article was worth the wait," analysts at Westpac said in a note. "The timing of the unwinding of QE remains data-dependent, not a serious prospect until perhaps late U.S. summer at the earliest."
Analysts say that in essence, the Fed appears to be managing market expectations that its quantitative easing program will not last forever.

The Fed has said that it would maintain its key interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent until the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent. It has also committed to monthly purchases of bonds until labor market conditions improve substantially.

Sooner Rather Than Later?

And it is the recent signs of improvement in the jobs market that has renewed talk about a possible end to the quantitative easing. The latest non-farm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy created 165,000 new jobs last month, much more than expected, helping push the unemployment rate down to 7.5 percent. Data last week meanwhile showed jobless claims at their lowest level in almost 5-1/2 years.

"The timing is still a bit uncertain, but our view is that there will be no more QE from the United States after December this year," said Geoff Lewis, global market strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
"They're [Fed officials] not going to raise interest rates they've told us that until unemployment comes down to 6.5 percent, but that could be as soon perhaps as the first half of next year," he added.
Lewis said that the Fed would have no choice but to taper off QE in the face of stronger economic news and that was unlikely to lead to alarm in equity markets that have thrived on the aggressive monetary stimulus.

U.S. stocks hit fresh highs on Friday, while markets in Asia and Europe have also seen stellar gains this year. "That [an easing of QE] would be good for U.S. stocks because it would mean the U.S. economy is doing a lot better," he said.

Martin Lakos, division director, Macquarie Private Wealth told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" that he also remained positive on the outlook for stocks."The central bank is clearly trying to massage markets that QE is not going to be around there forever. I don't think that is a big risk as they [the Fed] are managing expectations," he said. "We remain positive on equities over the next couple of years."

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.cnbc.com

Gold Survey : Split Views On Gold Price Direction Next Week...

www.cfb.ae

GOLD UPDATE 

Survey participants are divided on the price outlook for gold next week, with no one group capturing the majority of opinions, although nominally more participants see weaker prices.
In the Daily News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, eight see prices up, while 11 see prices down and six see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.Those who see weaker Gold prices cited several factors including a stronger dollar, weaker technical charts and stronger equity markets.

“Gold tried to break out, but failed. Longs came in as the market pushed above $1,400 and held just below $1,500 for several weeks, but short positions were established against the $1,500 level pressuring those long positions. In the futures, sell stops are being hit on this decline. There are still long positions in the ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and this market is testing their resolve. The physical buying in India and China will not be able to replace the investment dollars that went into the ETF markets.

Speaking of the dollar, this current strength is a big problem for gold as well. (Fifteen hundred) failed and now we will see how $1,400 fares. I expect prices to be steady to lower next week,” said Frank Lesh, futures broker at FuturePath Trading.The participants who see higher prices said they expect gold to find buying interest at these lower levels and rebound slightly.Those who see prices sideways or are neutral said they see prices trying to consolidate in the recent range.

“I suspect gold will be flat next week. We’ll likely see some up and down around the current level for a few weeks. After a strong rally following the mid-April collapse, some consolidation at best, retreat at worst, is to be expected,” said Adrian Day, chairman & CEO, Adrian Day Asset Management.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.reuters.com

Treasuries Decline as Dollar’s Rise Versus Yen Damps Demand...

www.cfb.ae

Treasury 30-year bonds fell, pushing yileds to almost a one-month high, after the dollar strengthened beyond 100 per yen for the first time in four years, damping demand for U.S. government securities.
Treasuries rallied earlier as an auction of 30-year bonds drew a yield of 2.980 percent, compared with a forecast of 2.997 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of nine of the FederalReserve’s primary dealers. Yields had increased since May 3 when a report showed strong-than-forecast jobs growth and unemployment at a four-year low. Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. raised the holdings of Treasuries held in his flagship fund to the highest level since 2010.

“The move is a stronger dollar versus everything that has caused a technical move in foreign-exchange markets,” said Richard Gilhooly, an interest rate strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit in New York. “That’s weighing on bonds.”

The 30-year bond yield rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.99 percent at 4:59 p.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 3.125 percent bond due in February 2043 fell 3/32, or $0.94 per $1,000 face amount, to 102 19/32. The yield fell as much as four basis points, after it rose to 3.02 percent yesterday, the highest level since April 4.
The yield on the May 2023 securities sold yesterday was little changed at 1.81 percent.

Japanese Demand

While Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s April 4 announcement doubling monthly bond purchases spurred speculation that domestic money managers would seek higher yields in the U.S. and other markets, Japanese investors cut holdings of overseas debt for a sixth-straight week in the period ended April 19, the longest streak since January 2010, Ministry of Finance data show. The MOF is scheduled to report the data, covering the past two weeks, this evening.

At today’s U.S. bond auction, indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, purchased 38.8 percent of the notes, compared with an average of 36.5 percent for the past 10 sales.
“We should expect more Japanese related flows to begin entering our market as they likely have this week,” said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $2.1 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “We’ve seen overseas interest. A lot of the demand behind that could be Japanese buyers,” he said, referring to the auctions.

Auction Bidding

The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 2.53, compared with an average of 2.6 for the previous 10 sales.
Direct bidders, non-primary-dealer investors that place their bids directly with the Treasury, purchased 15.5 percent of the notes, compared with an average of 14.2 percent at the last 10 auctions.
“There remains demand for safety and quality out there,” said Larry Milstein, managing director in New York of government-debt trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co.
The sales will raise $12.4 billion of new cash, as maturing securities held by the public total $59.6 billion, according to the Treasury. (USGG10YR)
Bidding has slowed at Treasury auctions this year, with the $793 billion in debt sales attracting an average of $3 in orders to buy per dollar of debt sold, compared with a record $3.15 in 2012, according to data released by the Treasury and compiled by Bloomberg.

Yield Forecast

The yield on the 10-year note is forecast to end the year at 2.20 percent, according to the median estimates of economists in a Bloomberg News survey May 3 to 8. The figure is down from a forecast of 2.25 percent in a Bloomberg News survey conducted April 5 to April 9. Thirty-year bonds may yield 3.25 percent at the end of the year, compared with a forecast for 3.37 percent in the previous survey.
The Fed reiterated its pledged last week to buy U.S. debt as it tries to spur the economy.

The Fed is buying $85 billion of Treasury and mortgage debt each month to support the economy by putting downward pressure on borrowing costs. It purchased $1.4 billion of TIPS maturing between April 2018 and February 2043 today, according to the Fed Bank of New York’s website.
Other central banks have also increased asset purchases or cut rates. The European Central Bank last week cut its key interest rate week to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent.

Pimco’s Gross raised the holdings of Treasuries held in his $292.9 billion Total Return fund at Pimco to 39 percent last month, the highest level since July 2010. Gross has been advising investors to sell risk assets and buy government debt, including inflation-linked securities and nominal Treasuries as central banks pursue unprecedented stimulus measures.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.bloomberg.com

Sharp Gains For Gold Amid Better China Economic Data, Bullish "Outside Markets"

www.cfb.ae

Comex gold futures ended the U.S. day session with sharp gains Wednesday, boosted by upbeat economic data coming out of China and by bullish “outside market” forces—a lower U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. June Comex gold last traded up $24.20 at $1,473.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $21.50 at $1,474.50.  July Comex silver last traded up $0.079 at $23.885 an ounce.
China on Wednesday reported a trade surplus of $18.2 billion in April compared to expectations of a $15.6 billion surplus. Both imports and exports exceeded market expectations. Asian stock markets were supported on the China news. Also, better-than-expected German industrial production data for April was reported, at up 1.2% when a 0.2% decline was expected. The better China and German data gave a boost to the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,468.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,454.00.
Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Wednesday as trading has become choppy. The gold bulls continue to show resilience, which is suggestive of a market bottom being in place. However, gold prices are still in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the overall technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,439.70. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,478.40 and then at last week’s high of $1,487.20. First support is seen at $1,460.00 and then at $1,450.00.

July silver futures prices closed near mid-range Wednesday. Silver bears are still in overall technical control. Prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $24.095 and then at this week’s high of $24.42. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $23.64 and then at this week’s low of $23.40.

May N.Y. copper closed up 635 points at 336.40 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three-week high. Upbeat Chinese economic data released Wednesday also helped to boost copper prices. Copper bulls have gained upside momentum and are now on a level near-term technical playing field with the bears. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 345.25 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 339.00 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents and then at 332.40 cents.

Contact Us:

Asad Rasheed
Direct:04-3841906
Email:asad@cfb.ae
Email:info@cfb.ae

For more information please visit our website century financial brokers.

 Here are some useful links that you can follow:

Here is a CFB blog that gives useful daily Gold Analysis on dailybasis.

You can also follow CFB on facebook (useful advice on posts regularly)

Here is another blog that provides regular news and information and is very useful for Forex Signals.

News Source: www.bloomberg.com