Hollande projected to win French presidency-Forex Brokers

Socialist challenger Francois Hollande appeared on track to defeat French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's presidential runoff, projections showed as polls closed. Estimates showed Hollande on track to win 51.9% of the vote to Sarkozy's 48.1%, according to cable news channel France 24. Other projections also showed Hollande in the lead.

Asad Khan     
Financial Analyst  (CFB)
(0508774861)
asad@cfb.ae

For More Detail Click Here.  https://www.cfb.ae

Hollande projected to win French presidency-Forex Trading

Socialist challenger Francois Hollande appeared on track to defeat French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's presidential runoff, projections showed as polls closed. Estimates showed Hollande on track to win 51.9% of the vote to Sarkozy's 48.1%, according to cable news channel France 24. Other projections also showed Hollande in the lead.


Asad Khan     
Financial Analyst  (CFB)
(0508774861)
asad@cfb.ae

Click Here.  www.cfb.ae

Gold Bubble? "More People That Own Apple Stock Than Gold"-Forex Brokers

Gold dropped $16.50 or 1.00% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,637.10/oz. Gold gradually traded lower in Asia and in European trading.



Gold is down 1.6% on the week. The gold market has seen peculiar, lack lustre, low volume trading this week punctuated with sudden, oddly timed, very large sell orders. This leads to quick price falls followed either by slow, gradual recovery or a sharp bounce, prior to next bout of strangely timed sudden large sell orders.

This was clearly seen by the mysterious and massive $1.24 billion ‘Goldfinger’ trade on Monday.

While the $1.24 billion trade on Monday was attributed to a “fat finger” or algo trading in the gold market, there was a similar spike in volume at exactly the same time in silver – while all other markets saw little price movements.

There have been a few instances of this and it was seen yesterday again around 1330 GMT when there was a large 3,000 plus lot gold sell order which saw the price quickly fall by over $5 before a rapid recovery. Volume that size is unusual for that time of the day on the COMEX.

Yesterday the silver pits again suddenly saw the sale of some 200,000 lots in a minute or two that knocked the most-active SI future back a few cents (see chart below) and this led to silver breaching the $30/oz mark later in the session.

It is unusual to see a market building momentum in a certain direction and then to see massive sell orders in both the gold and silver market which then lead to further tech selling which can feed on itself.

At the same time there appear to be eager buyers at these levels who continue to accumulate on the dips. Ultimately prices will be dictated not by strange and potentially manipulative trading on the COMEX but by the global supply and demand of physical bullion.



Gold’s weakness may also be due to short correlations with equity markets – which have come off due to investor jitters after recent poor data and ahead of the US payrolls report.

Market expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls report have fallen this week, with dealers now expecting that the economy added 125,000 to 150,000 jobs in April, below the previous Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000. Investors are expecting more lacklustre job growth last month following a trail of weak U.S. indicators.

A poor jobs number should lead to gold moving higher as it will lead to concerns about the US economy and concerns that QE3 will be launched leading to the further debasement of the dollar.

The European Central Bank kept rates steady at 1% as expected by market watchers. The euro faces additional risks on Sunday from elections in France and Greece which could create further disruption in the Eurozone about their countries commitment to fiscal austerity.

Euro gold is consolidating between €1,150/oz and €1,400/oz (see chart below). Given the terrible economic mess that Europe finds itself in, it seems only a matter of time before gold reaches €1,400/oz again and there is of course the risk of the euro falling by much more against gold.

Gold a Bubble? “More People That Own Apple Stock Than Gold”

Respected investment fund manager and author of the 'Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' has advised buying gold again and says that 25% of a portfolio should be in precious metals.

He says another move to the downside of gold is possible, but worldwide printing of money assures long term support.

Swiss born and educated Marc Faber’s contrarian voice is common on CNBC and Bloomberg TV when it comes to big-picture macro forecasting and an astute historical perspective. However, outside of the specialist financial media his astute historical perspective remains relatively unknown.

Interviewed at his residence in Hong Kong by Hard Asset Investor, Faber made the excellent point that the majority of the investment public continues not to own gold. Especially, when compared to say one popular tech stock - such as Apple.



Faber said that he attends lots of conferences and usually asks the audience, “How many of you own gold?” Normally, hardly anyone owns it. I’ve been to conferences with thousands of people attending, and nobody owned any physical gold.”

Faber believes that this shows that gold is not a bubble.

“When you went to an investment conference in 1989, everybody owned Japanese stocks. And in 2000, everybody owned tech stocks. That is the bubble, when the majority of market participants own an asset. I think there are more people that own Apple stock than gold.”
Faber points out that while the price of gold has risen by quite a lot in the last 13 years (from $252/oz in 1999), the debt situation of the western world has deteriorated dramatically.

“People say the price of gold is in a bubble stage and it is up substantially from the lows in 1999, which was, at the time, around $252 per ounce. But at the same time, we had an explosion of debt, not just government debt, but private sector debt, and an explosion of unfunded liabilities such as in the pension fund industry, and not just with Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid.”

“So now, 12 years after the gold’s low, we are essentially in a situation where maybe the price of gold should be much higher because the economic and financial conditions are worse than they were 12 years ago.”


Asad Khan     
Financial Analyst  (CFB)
(0508774861)
asad@cfb.ae

Click Here https://www.cfb.ae

Gold Bubble? "More People That Own Apple Stock Than Gold"-Forex Brokers

 Gold Bubble? "More People That Own Apple Stock Than Gold"

Gold dropped $16.50 or 1.00% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,637.10/oz. Gold gradually traded lower in Asia and in European trading.



Gold is down 1.6% on the week. The gold market has seen peculiar, lack lustre, low volume trading this week punctuated with sudden, oddly timed, very large sell orders. This leads to quick price falls followed either by slow, gradual recovery or a sharp bounce, prior to next bout of strangely timed sudden large sell orders.

This was clearly seen by the mysterious and massive $1.24 billion ‘Goldfinger’ trade on Monday.

While the $1.24 billion trade on Monday was attributed to a “fat finger” or algo trading in the gold market, there was a similar spike in volume at exactly the same time in silver – while all other markets saw little price movements.

There have been a few instances of this and it was seen yesterday again around 1330 GMT when there was a large 3,000 plus lot gold sell order which saw the price quickly fall by over $5 before a rapid recovery. Volume that size is unusual for that time of the day on the COMEX.

Yesterday the silver pits again suddenly saw the sale of some 200,000 lots in a minute or two that knocked the most-active SI future back a few cents (see chart below) and this led to silver breaching the $30/oz mark later in the session.

It is unusual to see a market building momentum in a certain direction and then to see massive sell orders in both the gold and silver market which then lead to further tech selling which can feed on itself.

At the same time there appear to be eager buyers at these levels who continue to accumulate on the dips. Ultimately prices will be dictated not by strange and potentially manipulative trading on the COMEX but by the global supply and demand of physical bullion.



Gold’s weakness may also be due to short correlations with equity markets – which have come off due to investor jitters after recent poor data and ahead of the US payrolls report.

Market expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls report have fallen this week, with dealers now expecting that the economy added 125,000 to 150,000 jobs in April, below the previous Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000. Investors are expecting more lacklustre job growth last month following a trail of weak U.S. indicators.

A poor jobs number should lead to gold moving higher as it will lead to concerns about the US economy and concerns that QE3 will be launched leading to the further debasement of the dollar.

The European Central Bank kept rates steady at 1% as expected by market watchers. The euro faces additional risks on Sunday from elections in France and Greece which could create further disruption in the Eurozone about their countries commitment to fiscal austerity.

Euro gold is consolidating between €1,150/oz and €1,400/oz (see chart below). Given the terrible economic mess that Europe finds itself in, it seems only a matter of time before gold reaches €1,400/oz again and there is of course the risk of the euro falling by much more against gold.

Gold a Bubble? “More People That Own Apple Stock Than Gold”

Respected investment fund manager and author of the 'Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' has advised buying gold again and says that 25% of a portfolio should be in precious metals.

He says another move to the downside of gold is possible, but worldwide printing of money assures long term support.

Swiss born and educated Marc Faber’s contrarian voice is common on CNBC and Bloomberg TV when it comes to big-picture macro forecasting and an astute historical perspective. However, outside of the specialist financial media his astute historical perspective remains relatively unknown.

Interviewed at his residence in Hong Kong by Hard Asset Investor, Faber made the excellent point that the majority of the investment public continues not to own gold. Especially, when compared to say one popular tech stock - such as Apple.



Faber said that he attends lots of conferences and usually asks the audience, “How many of you own gold?” Normally, hardly anyone owns it. I’ve been to conferences with thousands of people attending, and nobody owned any physical gold.”

Faber believes that this shows that gold is not a bubble.

“When you went to an investment conference in 1989, everybody owned Japanese stocks. And in 2000, everybody owned tech stocks. That is the bubble, when the majority of market participants own an asset. I think there are more people that own Apple stock than gold.”
Faber points out that while the price of gold has risen by quite a lot in the last 13 years (from $252/oz in 1999), the debt situation of the western world has deteriorated dramatically.

“People say the price of gold is in a bubble stage and it is up substantially from the lows in 1999, which was, at the time, around $252 per ounce. But at the same time, we had an explosion of debt, not just government debt, but private sector debt, and an explosion of unfunded liabilities such as in the pension fund industry, and not just with Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid.”

“So now, 12 years after the gold’s low, we are essentially in a situation where maybe the price of gold should be much higher because the economic and financial conditions are worse than they were 12 years ago.”

Asad Khan
Financial Analyst  (CFB) Trading Team

French And Greek Elections To Rock the Euro?

French And Greek Elections To Rock the Euro?

May 6, 2012, will be a big day for both France and Greece. The French people are set to vote for their next president. Meanwhile, parliamentary elections will take place in Athens.

For sure, hardcore market junkies will be on their toes for updates from both countries. Let me tell you why.

The French will choose between their current leader Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande as their next president. They had their first round of Presidential elections on April 22. However, because neither of the two candidates secured a majority, a second round will be conducted tomorrow.

Analysts are worried about the French elections for one very obvious reason.

Just like Mario who has Luigi and Batman who has Robin, German Chancellor Merkel had always found an ally in Nicolas Sarkozy in pushing debt-ridden countries to implement tough austerity measures. However, some are saying that the infamous Franco-German tandem might dissolve if the polls are right and Hollande is elected as the next French president.

You see, Francois Hollande has made it clear that he is a bigger fan of growth than austerity. In his campaign speeches, he has expressed his plans to renegotiate deficit and debt limit mandates to emphasize economic growth.

There is widespread skepticism about how the euro zone could maintain its commitment to putting its balance sheets in order if France stops backing up Germany in demanding for austerity measures.

But wait! Before you start biting all your nails off for France, you may want to spare some for Greece as a few economic gurus argue that it is the bigger political risk.

If you remember, Greece has been led by a caretaker government headed by Lucas Papademos after Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped down in November 2011.

A little background information that you have to know is that there are two main parties in the country: the conservative New Democrats and the Socialist Pasok. The trouble is that both have grown unpopular among the public with their agreements to budget cuts while other smaller parties have gained support.

Instead, the best that everyone could hope for is for the two parties to get enough combined votes and work side-by-side in a coalition government. But that in itself is a tall order to fill. Polls show that both parties will only garner about 38% of votes.

If New Democrats and Pasok don't secure the majority, new elections will have to be conducted. This is bad news because this would imply political instability. Other smaller parties in Greece are strongly against austerity measures and the government will have a harder time implementing budget cuts demanded by Greece's creditors. Heck, naysayers even think that it could eventually lead to a Greek exit if it ends up asking for a third bailout. Yikes!

In this old man's opinion, I think that Greece's elections will have a more significant impact in the short-run. It seems to me that markets have had more time to price in a win by Hollande than talks of political instability in Greece.


Asad Khan
Financial Analyst  (CFB) Trading Team

French And Greek Elections To Rock the Euro?

French And Greek Elections To Rock the Euro?

May 6, 2012, will be a big day for both France and Greece. The French people are set to vote for their next president. Meanwhile, parliamentary elections will take place in Athens.

For sure, hardcore market junkies will be on their toes for updates from both countries. Let me tell you why.

The French will choose between their current leader Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande as their next president. They had their first round of Presidential elections on April 22. However, because neither of the two candidates secured a majority, a second round will be conducted tomorrow.

Analysts are worried about the French elections for one very obvious reason.

Just like Mario who has Luigi and Batman who has Robin, German Chancellor Merkel had always found an ally in Nicolas Sarkozy in pushing debt-ridden countries to implement tough austerity measures. However, some are saying that the infamous Franco-German tandem might dissolve if the polls are right and Hollande is elected as the next French president.

You see, Francois Hollande has made it clear that he is a bigger fan of growth than austerity. In his campaign speeches, he has expressed his plans to renegotiate deficit and debt limit mandates to emphasize economic growth.

There is widespread skepticism about how the euro zone could maintain its commitment to putting its balance sheets in order if France stops backing up Germany in demanding for austerity measures.

But wait! Before you start biting all your nails off for France, you may want to spare some for Greece as a few economic gurus argue that it is the bigger political risk.

If you remember, Greece has been led by a caretaker government headed by Lucas Papademos after Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped down in November 2011.

A little background information that you have to know is that there are two main parties in the country: the conservative New Democrats and the Socialist Pasok. The trouble is that both have grown unpopular among the public with their agreements to budget cuts while other smaller parties have gained support.

Instead, the best that everyone could hope for is for the two parties to get enough combined votes and work side-by-side in a coalition government. But that in itself is a tall order to fill. Polls show that both parties will only garner about 38% of votes.

If New Democrats and Pasok don't secure the majority, new elections will have to be conducted. This is bad news because this would imply political instability. Other smaller parties in Greece are strongly against austerity measures and the government will have a harder time implementing budget cuts demanded by Greece's creditors. Heck, naysayers even think that it could eventually lead to a Greek exit if it ends up asking for a third bailout. Yikes!

In this old man's opinion, I think that Greece's elections will have a more significant impact in the short-run. It seems to me that markets have had more time to price in a win by Hollande than talks of political instability in Greece.





Asad Khan  (CFB Trading Team)

Oil Falls to Lowest Since February Before U.S. Jobs Data-Forex

Crude Oil Falls to Lowest Since February Before U.S. Jobs Data

Oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since February as U.S. employers added fewer workers than forecast, stoking concern that demand won’t be enough to cap inventories at their highest level in 21 years.
Futures declined as much as 4.9 percent after Labor Department figures showed payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 160,000 advance. Elections in France, Greece, Italy and Germany this weekend may determine how the region’s governments respond to Europe’s financial crisis.
“The oil market remains focused on the economy,” said David Greely, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. “The economic news from Europe and the U.S. has been a little disappointing. It looks like the U.S. is growing a little slower than we expected.”
Crude oil for June delivery dropped $4.57, or 4.5 percent, to $97.97 a barrel at 1:51 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched $97.51, the lowest level since Feb. 10. Prices are down 6.6 percent this week, heading for the biggest weekly decline since September.
Brent oil for June settlement fell $3.13, or 2.7 percent, to $112.95 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract reached $111.76, the lowest level since Feb. 2. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York futures widened to $14.98 from $13.54 yesterday.
The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, and earnings stagnated. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.6 percent, the lowest level since December 1981, from 63.8 percent.

Labor Participation

“The only reason that the jobless rate went down was that the labor participation rate fell to the lowest level since 1981,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “This is going to weigh on the crude market and especially on equities.”
Euro-region services and manufacturing output contracted more than initially estimated in April. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 46.7 from 49.1 in March, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s below an estimate of 47.4 published on April 23.
French voters go to the polls May 6 in a final runoff between President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist challenger Francois Hollande and Greeks will pick a new government in a national election the same day. There will be local elections in Germany and Italy.

‘Show Cracks’

“The European situation continues to be a drag on the market,” said Tom Bentz, a director with BNP Paribas Prime Brokerage Inc. in New York. “There are elections this weekend that could have a major impact on policy. The U.S., which had been holding up pretty well, is starting to show cracks.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.4 percent. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities was down 2.5 percent. The drop was led by crude.
Oil in New York climbed to a five-week intraday high of $106.43 on May 1 after a report showed that U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace in 10 months.
“Volatility has returned to the market,” Greely said. “We’re going to remain in a choppy range through the second quarter and then move higher in the second half of the year as the U.S. and Chinese economies improve.”
The fall in prices accelerated after breaking through technical support along its 100-day moving average, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The indicator stands at $102.36 a barrel today. Buy and sell orders tend to be clustered near chart-support levels.

Oil Supply

U.S. crude stockpiles increased 2.84 million barrels to 375.9 million in the seven days ended April 27, the most since September 1990, according to an Energy Department report May 2. Domestic output gained 8,000 barrels a day to 6.12 million, the highest level since November 1999, the report showed.
Gasoline consumption fell 0.3 percent to an average 8.66 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended April 27, leaving demand 4.7 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the department.
“We’re now focused on weak demand and high inventory levels,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Sobriety has returned to the market with Iran tension easing. Oil above $100 is not sustainable with the economy in this condition.”
Oil in New York has fallen 12 percent from a March 1 intraday peak of $110.55 a barrel as tensions have eased between Iran and Western nations over the country’s nuclear program.

‘Psychological Number’

“This is the biggest psychological number on the board for both investors and consumers,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “Falling below $100 will have a major impact on consumer confidence as it signals some relief from high prices.”
Gasoline for June delivery dropped 8.56 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $2.9644 a gallon in New York. The contract touched $2.9407, the lowest level since Feb. 8.
The national average retail price of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. fell 0.1 cent to $3.802 a gallon yesterday, according to a daily survey by AAA, the country’s largest motoring organization. That’s down from $3.936 on April 4.


Asad Khan     
Financial Analyst  (CFB)
(0508774861)
asad@cfb.ae

Click Here https://www.cfb.ae